Israel vs Palestine. Does COVID Vaccination Reduce COVID Mortality?

A side-by-side, time-series analysis of COVID deaths and vaccinations should give a measure of vaccine efficacy.

First some geography. Except for its border with Jordan and the Dead Sea, and a little bit of Egypt and the Med, Palestine is entirely within Israel (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Next some data (Figure 2).

Figure 2

1. Palestine’s first wave of COVID death in 2020 was two months after Israel and almost 70% bigger (#1 in Figure 2).

2. Palestine’s second wave of COVID death was only a month or so later than Israel and the same size “despite” Israel leading the world in COVID vaccinations at that time (#2 in Figure 2).

3. Palestine’s third wave of COVID death was also a month after Israel and again pretty much the same size. This time Palestine had started their vaccination drive but they still couldn’t keep pace with Israel at that time (#3 in Figure 2).

4. Palestine had a fourth wave of COVID death starting in December 2021 but Israel did not. Then Israel rolled out shot number 4 and its COVID deaths shot up almost immediately. Currently, Israel is 20% higher than Palestine but we might have to wait a few more weeks to see the final outcome (#4 in Figure 2).

5. Overall, “despite” having done almost 3 times as many injections as Palestine on a per capita basis, Israel’s COVID death toll is 3% higher than Palestine since the start of their vaccine campaign.

For a vaccine that is up to 95% effective in reducing mortality, I can’t work this out. If you can, answers on a postcard, please!

Thank you.

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P.S. If you want the long version, el gato malo has it!