Life Years Lost and COVID Vaccine Doses Administered.
Under 65s in Alabama are dying at a significantly higher rate than the over 65s since mass vaccination began.
In Alabama, both the under 65s and over 65s were having a soft mortality season in the run up to COVID. By the end of 2020 - COVID’s year - both were pretty much back on expectations.
However, since mass vaccination for COVID was started, excess life-years lost have sky-rocketed in the under 65s. The excess mortality has pretty much tracked COVID mortality, whereas life-years lost in the over 65s decoupled.
The over 65s decoupling is somewhat expected. They experienced over 175k lost life-years since the advent of COVID in spring 2020 and the following autumn/winter then recovered almost 100k of them by summer 2021. This indicates “pull forward”, i.e. that many of these people would have died within a year anyway.
A similar pattern emerges in the second half of 2021 with about one-third of the deaths pulled forward within the six-month period. By the end of the observation period of complete data (Mar-22), cumulative life-years lost in the over 65s are once again almost back to expectations.
There is no such indication of “pull forward” in the under 65s at any period. Since the start of mass vaccination when they were on expectation, the under 65s have simply accumulated deaths unabated for a disease that did not significantly impact them beforehand.
It is evident that whatever protection they had from the disease has been destroyed.
I will endeavour to analyse the other states to determine if this is systemic or only peculiar to Alabama or other states with similar demographics.
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Date credit: US Mortality