UK did 'too little, too late', leading to thousands more Covid deaths, says inquiry

Actually, 'DOING MORE, SOONER WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN EVEN MORE DEATH', says Joel Smalley

I suppose you’ve seen the headlines of the monumental waste of tax payer money spent on the official inquiry?

Inevitably, they come to the utterly false conclusion that intervening more would have saved more lives. Apart from the fact that the BBC reported it, we also know it’s false because they couldn’t possibly have looked at reliable mortality analysis.

How do I know? For starters, because I had to pay privately for the only reliable data set myself, so the ONS certainly didn’t use it. I have analysed every daily death occurrence of every native English and Welsh man and woman, isolated by year of birth. This is the only way to eliminate all the known biases that affect the raw data - net migration, demography, different birth cohort sizes, reporting delays.

The modelling thereafter is simple. You can fit pretty much any reasonable curve to the data. I chose 4-order polynomials. This gives me an “expected” death curve. Take the difference between actual deaths and expected deaths and you have… unexpected deaths. This is the only measure of lives saved - or caused, as you will see…

In the first chart below, I show the actual deaths vs the model deaths - not spurious Ferguson-type modelling, empirical modelling! Here are females born in 1930 by way of example - because it is quite appallingly obvious.

Pretty good fit, right? The black line through the middle is the 4-order polynomial model, the “expected deaths”. The grey noise around it is the actual deaths, showing obvious seasonal patterns.

Then, we can zoom in on 2020-2021 for unexpected or “excess” deaths that we are all now way too familiar with:

In each case, the red box spans the first lockdown - essentially the massive reduction of health and social care¹. The blue box represents the second lockdown plus “vaccine” mania. You can clearly see who “killed granny”? It wasn’t her grandkids. Rather it was not seeing them and being denied essential medical care - iatrogenesis. In my case, it’s not even hindsight - I called it at the time:

In every case (different sexes, birth cohorts), you will see the same pattern - all the unexpected death occurs during the intervention periods. There is no statistically significant evidence of unexpected death outside of these two periods - none.

What can we conclude from this? The only reasonable explanation is that Government policy resulted in pretty much all the unexpected deaths.

DOING MORE, SOONER WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN EVEN MORE DEATH

It might be worth remembering this - “next time”?!

Appendix

For sake of some brevity, I’m only showing a birth cohort every 5 years but you can imagine that all the years in between show the same picture.

1925 Females

1930 Females

1935 Females

1940 Females

1945 Females

1950 Females

1955 Females

1960 Females

1925 Males

1930 Males

1935 Males

1940 Males

1945 Males

1950 Males

1955 Males

1960 Males

1. UK research shows that higher hospital staff turnover and sickness absence are linked to increased patient mortality. Key studies found that a rise in nurse and senior doctor turnover rates correlates with more deaths among patients admitted as emergencies in NHS hospitals in England. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in nurse turnover is associated with 35 additional deaths per 100,000 hospital admissions, and a similar increase for senior doctors correlates with 14 extra deaths per 100,000 admissions. This translates to nearly 335 additional deaths each month across NHS hospitals in England. The studies emphasize that reduced availability of experienced staff adversely impacts patient outcomes and mortality rates.

Higher staff turnover is linked to increased deaths in NHS hospitals, study finds, BMJ 20-Nov-2024

Additional research indicates that nurse shortages and low staffing levels significantly increase the risk of death following hospital admission. For example, each day of low registered nurse staffing is associated with a 9.2% increase in mortality risk for surgical patients. This highlights how reductions in the presence of qualified nursing staff due to sickness or turnover can directly raise mortality rates.

Staffing levels and hospital mortality in England: a national panel study using routinely collected data, National Library of Medicine, May 2023