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Ben Haskell's avatar

As I look at usmortality.com for the USA, and compare 2020 with 2021, we are out-of-phase. No excess deaths for the first 3.5 months of 2020, and still in a big peak for the first 3 months of 2021.

Maybe the comparison of cumulative excess deaths should start from March 1 2020 to Feb 28 2021 versus March 1 2021 to Feb 28 2022?

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joe's avatar

Interesting. Very similar results are reported for Europe as well.

Comment #1:

a short question actually: to check whether all of this is correlated to introduction of vaccines, would it make sense an analysis like the following?

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1463918047144681472

Of course it would make much more sense for younger cohorts (0-14, and 15-44 for example, which could be extract from euromomo.eu as well) and for a longer time period (for example from the spring, when vaccination started) and not just for 6 weeks.

Comment #2:

strange stuff is going on with statistics in Europe. The site Euromomo updated yesterday the curves of excess deaths, and they changed a lot for the years 2018 and 2021 for the age group 0-14:

https://twitter.com/Gigi82776430/status/1463922971026853893

From their bullettin of week 47 (see website https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality) they took into account 29 nations instead of 26, but it still seems to me very strange such a different form of the curves for 2018 and 2021 respect to baseline, as only 3 nations have been added to the statistics out of 29...

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