As I look at usmortality.com for the USA, and compare 2020 with 2021, we are out-of-phase. No excess deaths for the first 3.5 months of 2020, and still in a big peak for the first 3 months of 2021.
Maybe the comparison of cumulative excess deaths should start from March 1 2020 to Feb 28 2021 versus March 1 2021 to Feb 28 2022?
Of course it would make much more sense for younger cohorts (0-14, and 15-44 for example, which could be extract from euromomo.eu as well) and for a longer time period (for example from the spring, when vaccination started) and not just for 6 weeks.
Comment #2:
strange stuff is going on with statistics in Europe. The site Euromomo updated yesterday the curves of excess deaths, and they changed a lot for the years 2018 and 2021 for the age group 0-14:
From their bullettin of week 47 (see website https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality) they took into account 29 nations instead of 26, but it still seems to me very strange such a different form of the curves for 2018 and 2021 respect to baseline, as only 3 nations have been added to the statistics out of 29...
I agree with you. I am also slowly abandoning Twitter since last year.
I see that you looked for correlation between covid deaths and vaccination rates. And the fact that you did not find any correlation somehow confirms that there is something wrong with all this story.
I will try to do the same if I manage next weeks, but looking for correlation between all-cause deaths, as i think this is at end what really matters.
But to be free of other cause mortalities (and to see eventually a vaccine induced mortality) I need to take a cohort in which the mortality rate is relatively low. So I will do the same analysis which I linked above, but for the cohorts 0-14 and 15-44. Let's see what it comes out!
I can try but population numbers are not always reliable and you can see inflections in the curves that would not be symbolic simply of population growth.
As I look at usmortality.com for the USA, and compare 2020 with 2021, we are out-of-phase. No excess deaths for the first 3.5 months of 2020, and still in a big peak for the first 3 months of 2021.
Maybe the comparison of cumulative excess deaths should start from March 1 2020 to Feb 28 2021 versus March 1 2021 to Feb 28 2022?
Interesting. Very similar results are reported for Europe as well.
Comment #1:
a short question actually: to check whether all of this is correlated to introduction of vaccines, would it make sense an analysis like the following?
https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1463918047144681472
Of course it would make much more sense for younger cohorts (0-14, and 15-44 for example, which could be extract from euromomo.eu as well) and for a longer time period (for example from the spring, when vaccination started) and not just for 6 weeks.
Comment #2:
strange stuff is going on with statistics in Europe. The site Euromomo updated yesterday the curves of excess deaths, and they changed a lot for the years 2018 and 2021 for the age group 0-14:
https://twitter.com/Gigi82776430/status/1463922971026853893
From their bullettin of week 47 (see website https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality) they took into account 29 nations instead of 26, but it still seems to me very strange such a different form of the curves for 2018 and 2021 respect to baseline, as only 3 nations have been added to the statistics out of 29...
Yes, indeed. I have done similar and get the same results. Slowly migrating over to substack from twatter. https://twitter.com/mdccclxx/status/1459229605311700995?s=20
I agree with you. I am also slowly abandoning Twitter since last year.
I see that you looked for correlation between covid deaths and vaccination rates. And the fact that you did not find any correlation somehow confirms that there is something wrong with all this story.
I will try to do the same if I manage next weeks, but looking for correlation between all-cause deaths, as i think this is at end what really matters.
See for example:
http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/10/comparing-all-cause-mortality-rate-by.html
But to be free of other cause mortalities (and to see eventually a vaccine induced mortality) I need to take a cohort in which the mortality rate is relatively low. So I will do the same analysis which I linked above, but for the cohorts 0-14 and 15-44. Let's see what it comes out!
I will look forward to it! I have subscribed.
I had no time for it yet. But someone is already moving in the same direction
https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1465419821114351617?s=20
Why do the charts start at a positive number on Jan 4th and not zero?
They run from the time COVID vaccinations started.
Thank you for the charts. Could you please add a set that adjusts for population growth?
I can try but population numbers are not always reliable and you can see inflections in the curves that would not be symbolic simply of population growth.
How to reconcile this with the excess death statistics from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count ? It seems that 2021 has seen more excess deaths mainly in January, i.e. before the vaccination role out
Vaccinations started in the States on 18th Dec. The most vulnerable were vaccinated first. Logic always prevails.
thats over a million people