When COVID first emerged in England during spring of 2020, the imapct on mortality was apparent. Although there was evidence of deaths caused by COVID policies (lockdowns, denial of healthcare services, inappropriate treatment of those near end of life), COVID does appear to be the instrumental cause of excess mortality.
The policy deaths have been acknowledged by the authorities and dismissed as necessary collateral damage to save hundreds of thousands of deaths predicted by the faulty Ferguson model.
In autumn of 2020, we saw the tail end of the epidemic, mainly in areas that were not as badly hit during the previous spring.
However, we also saw an extraordinary reappearance of COVID concomittant with the rollout of mass vaccination.
In summer of 2021, we begin to see an early rise in all-cause mortality which has persisted above historical levels, including 2020.
Starting the mortality year at the end of august so as to incorporate a single mortality season in one 12-month period, 2020 to 08-Nov saw an increase of 7.8% over the prior 3-year average. 2021 has so far seen an increase of over 11,000 deaths or 11.8%. That’s over 1,000 deaths a week extra.
Given that COVID now seems to be lurking in the background like an endmic virus rather than causing spikes that would be symptomatic of localised outbreaks, it is reasonable to assume that this increase is therefore due to the COVID policies now inevitably taking their toll? Or perhaps the fatal side effects of the vaccine are more substantial than that reported in the Yellow Card System?
I'm so glad I subscribed to your Substack. Great analysis. If lockdowns or mass vaccination were successful strategies, we simply wouldn't see these population-level trajectories. Untangling what is going on with the mortality statistics sure is going to be hard when all scientific discussion of the vaccines has been strangled.
Thanks Metatron. The excess non-Covid mortality in 2021 is also seen at the European level. And clearest in younger/middle age vaccinated cohorts where the Covid-death noise is less important: 15-44 and 45-64 years (but even 65-74 it's quite there).
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/