British Africans are Dying Less than South Asians and White British since the First COVID Wave

The BBC says it's complex. Experts say the opposite of what's in the data. I think you probably know the real reason?

Yesterday, the ONS recently updated their bulletin: Ethnic and religious contrasts in deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), England.

No longer being able to spin the narrative about how the Safe and Effective™ “vaccine” is responsible, the BBC put out a somewhat vacuous piece to cover it.

Nevertheless, they still managed to slip in a couple of platitudes to the COVID intervention narrative and, of course, some downright lies from the Experts™.

With respect to why “early in the pandemic, deaths involving coronavirus were higher among black and Asian people than white people”, this is what they said:

Well, the first part of this statement is patently false (unless you’re an Expert™ epidemiologist or work in public health). Most of the rest of us worked out very early on that SARS-Cov-2 worked just like all other coronaviruses and saw in the early data that none of the novel interventions were having any positive impact.

The second part is also false. Yes, the virus had a massively disproportionate impact on vulnerable people (many of whom were inevitably old) but there is no data suggesting that it disproportionately affected frontline health workers (not in its natural state at any rate). I remember checking at the time because of all the noise about teachers being at higher risk to justify closing schools.

We know that the mainstream media, exemplified by the BBC, are no longer in the business of investigative journalism, especially when there’s someone with credentials they can lazily interview instead so they didn’t bother checking the data for themselves.

If they had, they would have found this:

Yes, that’s right, for women, there is no materially different outcome in all-cause mortality amongst different ethnicities, except for lower deaths in the Chinese. When you lift the myopic veil of COVID, there’s a whole world of more reliable insight you can discover.

In other words, to the extent that female ethnic minorities may have fared worse in COVID terms, it does not appear in overall mortality. COVID deaths appear to be displacing deaths from other causes for one reason or another.

The same is not true for the males, where there is a disproportionately higher mortality rate for Black African and Caribbean and Bangladeshi:

Given that there is virtually no difference between the women, I’m going to go out on a limb here and speculate (not something I like to do) that this is more to do with lifestyle choices of these male demographics rather than genetic makeup!

Then we get to the most egregious lie told by the BBC’s Expert™:

Without referring to any data or studies to support her wild speculations, Dr Raleigh authoritatively states that all the completely unfounded non-pharmaceutical interventions and, worst of all, the “vaccine”, have “contributed to reducing ethnic differences in Covid-19 mortality over time”¹.

Surely, someone at the BBC thought to put this to the test? After all, the ONS bulletin release was what prompted them to write the article in the first place, wasn’t it?! What does the data actually say?

Unfortunately, true to ONS form, they have changed the format and content of this latest release, obfuscating everything useful by lumping all the death together into one amorphous ASMR² spanning the entire COVID era from Jan 2020 to Nov 2022.

Fortunately, they broke the mortality rates down into four COVID waves in the previous release, covering up to Feb 2022 so we can, at least, work with that and ask them to provide the most recent period broken out under an FOI. I have a feeling it might be quite revealing.

Nevertheless, the shorter period is pretty insightful on its own. Using wave 1 as “baseline” or control for all-cause mortality in COVID without “vaccines”, we can measure their subsequent waves against it.

If the “vaccine” is Safe and Effective™, we should see better outcomes in those ethnic groups where “vaccination” rates are higher, right?

Let’s start this time with the men:

Well, there’s certainly some significant variation. Notably, outcomes for Bangladeshi men are substantially worse in wave 2 than any other group in spite of being almost the worst in wave 1 so that should settle any claims about depleted pools being responsible for subsequent reductions in mortality.

Note also though, that the Black African and Caribbean have improved somewhat so we can also dismiss the argument that wave 2 continued killing the same demographic at the same rate.

These situations are mutually incompatible so there must be some change between these demographics that accounts for this?

Although the ONS has rather inconveniently joined two distinct but overlapping waves into wave 2, from Sep ‘20 to Jun ‘21, they could have disentangled them with a bit of Gompertz magic like many of us have proven to be a reliable method and isolated the potential impact of dose 1 of the “vaccine” that was introduced in early Dec ‘20.

Nevertheless, we can still test the assumption that this major intervention had an impact on mortality by regressing dose 1 (for over 50s since they are the group that die most) against the change in mortality for the ONS wave 2 relative to wave 1.

Well, I’d say that’s quite insightful… Differences in vaccination rates amongst the various ethnic groups “explain” almost a quarter of the variability in change in all-cause mortality. And, although it is not quite statistically significant, the relationship is not in favour of the intervention. In other words, the ethic groups with the higher vaccination rates have the worse relative outcomes.

Never mind the statistical insignificance because I don’t have to prove anything since I didn’t intervene in anyone’s life (or death).

More importantly then, can we find statistically significant evidence that the COVID “vaccine” reduces all-cause mortality from this data?

Let’s take a look at dose 2 (“full protection”) vs wave 3 which spans JUN ‘21 to JAN ‘22:

Well, those “hesitant” Black African and Caribbean certainly don’t seem to be faring worse than those zealous White British, do they? Perhaps, it’s an artefact of so many more of them dying in wave 1 so they can’t die again in wave 2? With wave 1 victims, Bangladeshi below trend for the higher vax other ethnicities, there may be some evidence of that?

But, what we don’t have is evidence of vaccine effectiveness. The slope is in the wrong direction for starters, even without those potential confounders!

Moving on to wave 4 (JAN to FEB ‘22) vs first round of boosters:

Nope, still no evidence of effectiveness. No statistical significance but again, the slope is in the wrong direction! More jabs, more death!

What about the women?

Whoa! It’s even worse for the South Asian women in wave 2 than it was for the men. Otherwise, the only other thing of major significance is, once again better outcome for the Black Africans.

Let’s break it down…

The relationship between increased “vaccination” and increased mortality is clear once again and this time is not confounded by different outcomes in wave 1.

The P-value ordinarily tells us that this result is not statistically significant (to 5% confidence level) but, in fact, the relationship is actually diminished by the monstrous outcomes suffered by the Bangladeshi and Pakistani. If they had “only” fared as badly as the Indians, the regression would have fallen into significant territory.

Was there a silver lining? In other words, after the deleterious impact of dose 1, did those that survived into dose 2 ultimately fare better? And the booster cohort after that?

Alas, not.

On its own, you might conclude that all this is nothing but some unfortunate coincidences and a mess of confounding factors. You might be right. But, what it most certainly does not show is real-world evidence of “vaccine” effectiveness.

It never does.

However, when you look at this and most other studies that the ONS has not done with their own data, like my analysis of English lower tier local authorities, you do see the same pattern emerging - one of higher all-cause mortality, associated with higher vaccination rates.

But, as my MP would say:

Keep chanting the mantra like it’s going to save your life one day. Except, it won’t. Neither will trusting the Government, its agencies or its propaganda wing in the media.

1. In retrospect, there may be some truth in this statement in that outcomes were, in fact, improved for those who were more “hesitant” in getting the COVID injection.

2. Age-standardised mortality rate.