COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA From age/state-resolved all-cause mortality by time, age-resolved vaccine delivery by time, and socio-geo-economic data.

Preprint in Researchgate from Denis G Rancourt, Marine Baudin and Jérémie Mercier

1. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign did not reduce all-cause mortality during the covid period.

2. No deaths, within the resolution of all-cause mortality, can be said to have been averted due to vaccination in the USA.

3. The mass vaccination campaign was not justified in terms of reducing excess all-cause mortality. The large excess mortality of the covid period, far above the historic trend, was maintained throughout the entire covid period irrespective of the unprecedented vaccination campaign, and is very strongly correlated (r = +0.86) to poverty, by state; in fact, proportional to poverty. It is also correlated to several other socio-economic and health factors, by state, but not correlated to population fractions (65+, 75+, 85+ years) of elderly state residents.
   

COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA From age/state-resolved all-cause mortality by time, age-resolved vaccine delivery by time, and socio-geo-economic data.

Excess Death during the COVID era relative to poverty

Excess Death during the COVID era relative to Median Household Income

Excess Death during the COVID era relative to Obesity

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Regarding vaccine-induced mortality, the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the USA did not cause the 50-week-integrated excess ACM in the second half of the 100-week covid period (second 50 weeks of the covid period),in which most of the vaccination campaign was accomplished, to be systematically larger (systematically across all age groups, or all states) than in the first half of the 100-week covid period (first 50 weeks of the covid period), in which there was essentially no vaccination campaign.

Despite the fact that there is no large systematic effect of the vaccination campaign on either 50-week-integrated mortality or main qualitative features of ACM by time, positive or negative, we nonetheless detect significant seasonally unambiguous local temporal associations between increases in number of vaccinated residents and synchronous increases in all-cause mortality, for certain age groups, and most prominently in certain states.

The said local temporal association is most evident for the 25-44 years age group, also prominent for the 45-64 years age group, and discernible for the 65-74 years age group. The said local temporal association is most prominent for the 25-64 years age group in Southern states — which typically have the smallest vaccination rates — including: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The special case of Michigan is also noteworthy.

The latter observations lead us to conclude that the large changes in age structure of ACM by time (first half versus second half of the covid period) may be partly largely due to aggressive “vaccine equity” campaigns that captured immunocompromised young adults in Southern states, thus causing disproportionate mortality among vulnerable young adults in late-summer-2021.

[My emphasis]