England & Wales Mortality Bulletin

Quarterly review March 2020 to March 2023

N.B. THIS BULLETIN IS SUBJECT TO REVIEW DUE TO A CHANGE IN METHODOLOGY

Main Points

1. In England & Wales, for all cohorts born between 1935 and 2008, excess mortality has accrued, pretty much unabated since the announcement of the COVID pandemic in Mar-20. By Mar-23, there have been around 146,000 excess deaths, with little reversion to baseline, of which only 32% occurred prior to the start of the mass vaccination campaign.

2. Progressively, as we move through the younger cohorts, excess mortality has increased over time, in most cases, peaking in Mar-21.

3. In relative terms, the cohort worst affected is those born between 2004 and 2008 (aged between 12 and 19 over the course of the pandemic), with a more than 400% increase in excess mortality rate after the start of the mass vaccination campaign, during which over 2 million were vaccinated, compared to the rate established between spring and Dec 2020.

4. Due to the impact of severe delays of up to 18 months in the death registration process, it is not possible to produce a reliable assessment of mortality for those born between 1983 and 2003 (aged 17 to 38 over the course of the pandemic).

5. Those born between 1945 and 1984 (aged 36 to 78 over the course of the pandemic) exhibit more excess mortality in absolute terms and higher mortality rates, post-vax than before.

6. In spite of the above caveats, excess deaths of those aged between 12 and 65 amounted to 19,000 in the first year of the “pandemic” and amassed an additional 21,000 over the subsequent two years, an increase of 10% during a period of expected deficit.

7. Those born between 1935 and 1944, i.e. older than 76 at the start of the pandemic, are the only cohort to show a lower post-vax excess mortality rate.

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Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 1935 and 2008

Figure 1

In England & Wales, in the quarter to Mar-23, there were 16,000 excess deaths for those aged 12 to 88 between 2020 and 2023, 37% higher than quarter to Mar-22 but down 48% from Mar-21 (Figure 1).

Since Mar-20, just prior to the proclamation of the COVID pandemic, the cumulative excess mortality to Mar-23 was 146,000. Of this, around 50,000 (32%) occurred prior to the mass COVID vaccination program and 96,000 (68%) thereafter.

Overall, the quarterly excess mortality rate has decreased 20% from 11,700 pre-vax to 9,400 post-vax. However, there is still no sign of reversion to baseline that always occurred within weeks of periods of excess prior to 2020.

Figure 2

From the weekly series (Figure 2), there are upward inflection points week ending 27-Mar-20, the week in which the most major public health and societal interventions occurred; 25-Dec-20, the week after the start of the mass vaccination campaign; and most abnormally, 13-Aug-21.

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Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 2004 and 2008

Figure 3

In England & Wales, in the quarter to Mar-23, there were 17 excess deaths for those aged 12 to 19 between 2020 and 2023, 61% lower than quarter to Mar-22 and 5% lower than Mar-21 (Figure 3).

However, since Mar-20, just prior to the proclamation of the COVID pandemic, for this cohort, the cumulative excess mortality to Mar-23 was 288. Of this, around 33 (11%) occurred prior to the mass COVID vaccination program and 330 (89%) thereafter.

The quarterly excess mortality rate has increased 409% from 6 pre-vax, to 31 post-vax, accelerating away significantly from the expected reversion to baseline.

Figure 4

From the weekly series (Figure 4), the most significant upward inflection point occurs week ending 19-Mar-21 and continues unabated to the end of the series (May-23). During this period, over 2 million of this cohort (almost 50%) were vaccinated (Figure 5).

Figure 5

Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 1985 and 2003

Due to substantial delays in the recording of deaths for this cohort (aged 18 to 38 over the course of the pandemic), it is not possible to produce useful or meaningful analysis.

This is clear simply by looking at the weekly and cumulative series (Figures 6 and 7), where the tail off apparently starts as far back as Mar-22, almost 18 months ago.

Figure 6

Figure 7

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Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 1960 and 1984

Figure 8

In England & Wales, in the quarter to Mar-23, there were 1,600 excess deaths for those aged 36 to 63 between 2020 and 2023, 27% lower than quarter to Mar-22 and 71% lower than Mar-21 (Figure 8).

Since Mar-20, just prior to the proclamation of the COVID pandemic, for this cohort, the cumulative excess mortality to Mar-23 was 26,000. Of this, around 7,000 (27%) occurred prior to the mass COVID vaccination program and 19,000 (73%) thereafter.

After shifting substantially higher in Mar-21 (from 8,800 predicted by the unfettered pre-vax trend to 12,400), the quarterly excess mortality rate has also increased 11% from 1,800 pre-vax, to 2,000 post-vax, moving in the opposite direction from the expected reversion to baseline.

Figure 9

From the weekly series (Figure 9), there are upward inflection points week ending 27-Mar-20, the week in which the most major public health and societal interventions occurred; 01-Jan-21, two weeks after the start of the mass vaccination campaign; and most abnormally, 23-Jul-21, early summer.

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Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 1945 and 1959

Figure 10

In England & Wales, in the quarter to Mar-23, there were 7,700 excess deaths for those aged 61 to 78 between 2020 and 2023, 49% higher than quarter to Mar-22 but 35% lower than Mar-21 (Figure 10).

Since Mar-20, just prior to the proclamation of the COVID pandemic, for this cohort, the cumulative excess mortality to Mar-23 was 62,500. Of this, around 16,600 (27%) occurred prior to the mass COVID vaccination program and 45,900 (73%) thereafter.

After shifting substantially higher in Mar-21 (from 21,100 predicted by the unfettered pre-vax trend to 28,400), the quarterly excess mortality rate has also increased 10% from 4,100 pre-vax, to 4,500 post-vax, increasing away from the expected reversion to baseline.

Figure 11

From the weekly series (Figure 11), there are upward inflection points week ending 27-Mar-20, the week in which the most major public health and societal interventions occurred; 01-Jan-21, two weeks after the start of the mass vaccination campaign; and most abnormally, 13-Aug-21, mid summer, after which, there is simply a constant increase in excess mortality, rather than the peaks and troughs expected due to association with seasonality and the impact of respiratory pathogens on this cohort.

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Deaths Occurring in England & Wales for Those Born between 1935 and 1944

Figure 12

In England & Wales, in the quarter to Mar-23, there were 7,200 excess deaths for those aged 76 to 88 between 2020 and 2023, 68% more than quarter to Mar-22 but 46% lower than Mar-21 (Figure 12).

Since Mar-20, just prior to the proclamation of the COVID pandemic, for this cohort, the cumulative excess mortality to Mar-23 was 57,900. Of this, around 23,300 (40%) occurred prior to the mass COVID vaccination program and 34,600 (60%) thereafter.

After shifting substantially higher in Mar-21 (from 29,800 predicted by the unfettered pre-vax trend to 36,700), the quarterly excess mortality rate has also subsequently decreased 49% from 5,830 pre-vax, to 3,000 post-vax, although there is still scant evidence of reversion to pre-pandemic baseline that we should expect due to the pull-forward effect.

Figure 13

As with the younger age cohorts, from the weekly series (Figure 13), there are upward inflection points week ending 27-Mar-20, the week in which the most major public health and societal interventions occurred; 01-Jan-21, two weeks after the start of the mass vaccination campaign; and most abnormally, 13-Aug-21, mid summer.

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Methodology