Is it possible to do comparative analysis on excess mortality in low-vaccination Denmark (1.5 doses per capita) versus high-vaccination countries? Wondering if any signal at population/nation level
Forgive my rookie question: Are you saying that the English Excess deaths are not accurately reported for the last six months due to poor record keeping? Meaning they could in fact be higher?
'No, I’m afraid that dramatic drop off in the last six months is simply because the mortality record keeping is so poor'
Wow. 6 months behind in stats like ACM? I think Canada is equally slow. I remember in May of 2021 they didn't have the ACM for 2020. A full 5 months late.
you will have to stuff it through google translate. TL;DR 85% got 2 doses. 66% got 3. Only people over 65 got 4, but 75% of them did so. Note that children under 12 weren't vaccinated here. And the AZ vaccine was pulled, so hardly anybody got that. There quickly was a policy of no Moderna vaccine for people under 30, later under 40, later 'nobody wants the thing,
period'. I don't have those figures handy.
I am not sure I understand Joel's chart here, though, as our statistics bureau are saying that we don't have excess mortality in the months of 2022. This is likely due to differences in calculating the baseline, which is much less straightforward than you might think.
I agree - the baseline is often calculated as the mean over the 5 preceding years. Some people are now ignoring 2020 and some 2021 as well. In his original post Joel talked of the 'summer low of prior years' as being the baseline. One thing is certain:- there's no shortage of ammunition in this information war.
Well, for Sweden 'the preceding 5 years' would be particularly misleading because when you measure excess mortality and mortality deficits you find that 2019 is more of an outlier than 2020. More people didn't die that were expected to in 2019 than died in 2020 that weren't expected to, no matter how you try to slice it.
If you argue that the people who ought to have died in 2019 _really_ ought to have died in 2020 you will end up with figures that underestimate the deadliness of covid 19. If you, instead ignore the fact that there were a whole lot more elders out there, so of course a lot more died, you will overestimate the problem. So you end up having to calculate the likelihood that any particular person who happened to be alive would die when they got covid, based on age and other co-morbidities. This is just 'educated guessing' .... and so it goes.
I think that researchers are trying to reduce or eliminate the confounding factors like general health, demographics or interventions to reach credible conclusions. This work is ongoing and as data from a wider range of jurisdictions is included, the signal - if there is one - should emerge from the noise.. We should be careful not to place too much weight in intermediate results but they do suggest trends for further analysis. If you don't already follow it, Mathew Crawford's substack https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/archive?sort=new
is good on most issues especially statistical ones.
Sweden was late to vax. They got to 50% on 22 August 2021 according to OWID. That's 2 months behind the USA who was several months behind Israel, Seychelles, UK and the other early adopters.
This winter should be a good test as most everyone, everywhere in the northern hemisphere has had 2 or 3 shots by now. Take a look at Australia and New Zealand as they are southern and just coming out of their winter.
Yea, Auz and NZ are bombing badly despite having 95% double shot and most with boosters. It's the northern hemisphere's turn next. Iceland, Ireland, Portugal & Lithuania are vaxxed up like Auz & NZ so we'll see shortly just how good/bad things get.
In 2020 Sweden had a minor lockdown policy. They closed public venues for concerts, and that's all I know of. Masks were not required in Sweden. Sweden was a test case to compare to Michigan, which had total lockdowns, masks required everywhere, in the office, even outside, and travel was restricted too (you needed travel papers to drive your car), vaccines were mandated by most companies. Michigan ended up having more COVID cases per capita than Sweden.
I live in Michigan. Michigan, or the medical corporations, still requires masks at all medical facilities but nowhere else.
Is it possible to do comparative analysis on excess mortality in low-vaccination Denmark (1.5 doses per capita) versus high-vaccination countries? Wondering if any signal at population/nation level
Love your work Joel!
Just as England loses to Sweden in soccer, so it was no surprise that it also lost to Sweden in this massive game of life!
Forgive my rookie question: Are you saying that the English Excess deaths are not accurately reported for the last six months due to poor record keeping? Meaning they could in fact be higher?
'No, I’m afraid that dramatic drop off in the last six months is simply because the mortality record keeping is so poor'
This procrastinating must be serving someone, somehow...🙄
Unbelievable! 😡
A cumulative chart would be nice too.
Wow. 6 months behind in stats like ACM? I think Canada is equally slow. I remember in May of 2021 they didn't have the ACM for 2020. A full 5 months late.
Absolutely sickening to see this and know it’s so easily disregarded
Would be good to see vax rate.
Hello from Sweden.
For Sweden:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/statistik-over-registrerade-vaccinationer-covid-19/
you will have to stuff it through google translate. TL;DR 85% got 2 doses. 66% got 3. Only people over 65 got 4, but 75% of them did so. Note that children under 12 weren't vaccinated here. And the AZ vaccine was pulled, so hardly anybody got that. There quickly was a policy of no Moderna vaccine for people under 30, later under 40, later 'nobody wants the thing,
period'. I don't have those figures handy.
I am not sure I understand Joel's chart here, though, as our statistics bureau are saying that we don't have excess mortality in the months of 2022. This is likely due to differences in calculating the baseline, which is much less straightforward than you might think.
I agree - the baseline is often calculated as the mean over the 5 preceding years. Some people are now ignoring 2020 and some 2021 as well. In his original post Joel talked of the 'summer low of prior years' as being the baseline. One thing is certain:- there's no shortage of ammunition in this information war.
Well, for Sweden 'the preceding 5 years' would be particularly misleading because when you measure excess mortality and mortality deficits you find that 2019 is more of an outlier than 2020. More people didn't die that were expected to in 2019 than died in 2020 that weren't expected to, no matter how you try to slice it.
see: https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2021/03/03/deaths-in-sweden-2020-compared-to-2015-2018/ and most especially https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2021/01/07/the-many-ways-excess-deaths-overdodlighet-can-fool-you/ for some discussion of the problems involved, if this is the sort of thing that interests you.
If you argue that the people who ought to have died in 2019 _really_ ought to have died in 2020 you will end up with figures that underestimate the deadliness of covid 19. If you, instead ignore the fact that there were a whole lot more elders out there, so of course a lot more died, you will overestimate the problem. So you end up having to calculate the likelihood that any particular person who happened to be alive would die when they got covid, based on age and other co-morbidities. This is just 'educated guessing' .... and so it goes.
I think that researchers are trying to reduce or eliminate the confounding factors like general health, demographics or interventions to reach credible conclusions. This work is ongoing and as data from a wider range of jurisdictions is included, the signal - if there is one - should emerge from the noise.. We should be careful not to place too much weight in intermediate results but they do suggest trends for further analysis. If you don't already follow it, Mathew Crawford's substack https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/archive?sort=new
is good on most issues especially statistical ones.
Sweden was late to vax. They got to 50% on 22 August 2021 according to OWID. That's 2 months behind the USA who was several months behind Israel, Seychelles, UK and the other early adopters.
This winter should be a good test as most everyone, everywhere in the northern hemisphere has had 2 or 3 shots by now. Take a look at Australia and New Zealand as they are southern and just coming out of their winter.
It’s proven beyond doubt that these vaxxes do NOT prevent covid and frequently worse than for the wise unvaccinated 🤔
Yea, Auz and NZ are bombing badly despite having 95% double shot and most with boosters. It's the northern hemisphere's turn next. Iceland, Ireland, Portugal & Lithuania are vaxxed up like Auz & NZ so we'll see shortly just how good/bad things get.
Things will get worse only if idiots keep getting boosters
The deaths occur 5 moths after vaccination.
C) They got the lucky batches?
There are a lot of possibilities. Every time you are presented with 2 look for a third.
In 2020 Sweden had a minor lockdown policy. They closed public venues for concerts, and that's all I know of. Masks were not required in Sweden. Sweden was a test case to compare to Michigan, which had total lockdowns, masks required everywhere, in the office, even outside, and travel was restricted too (you needed travel papers to drive your car), vaccines were mandated by most companies. Michigan ended up having more COVID cases per capita than Sweden.
I live in Michigan. Michigan, or the medical corporations, still requires masks at all medical facilities but nowhere else.