This makes me sick. A good friend and classmate of my son had to resign her Navy commission and pay back her training in the $200k range because she would not take this vaccine. She took others but not this.
Thanks, Michael and cm27874. The corona-transition and the OSF ones are a different document, though on the same topic. The 7argumente one is at a quick glance very similar to this one that Joel links, with some differences in the headings. These could come in handy in my attempts to convince my German friends that I'm not a Verschwörungstheoretiker (conspiracy theorist).
Inspired by some of the comments to this post, I have presented some German mortality data in a user-friendly, diagram-heavy way: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/die-a-grams
Nothing to see here, just some "Undesirable Side Effects" of Experimental Gene Therapy they KNEW about :
mRNA "Vaccines" Are Gene Therapy. May cause Undesirable Side Effects That Could Delay Or Prevent Their Regulatory Approval According To BioNTech SEC Filing
The Truth About "Safe and Effective" mRNA "Vaccines" Hidden In Plain Sight
I've been tracking excess deaths closely the last two years, so I have some questions, suggestions, and feedback for the authors on this paper. I also found a (potentially) significant discrepancy in their source data. Note that this is my "first reaction" thoughts:
1) There appears to be a discrepancy in the deaths for 2020 and (to a lesser extent) 2021 that I want to understand. The authors pull data from here [1] which leads to an excel sheet providing two different numbers. The third tab (D_2016_2022_Tage) notes deaths at 985,572 in 2020 and 1,020,702 in 2021. These are the numbers cited by the authors which they base excess deaths around.
However, the fourth tab (D_2016_2022_KW_AG_Ins) puts deaths at 1,001,404 in 2020 and 1,016,764 in 2021.
Additionally, mortality.org, which is also used by Our World in Data among others, puts deaths in Germany almost identically to the 4th tab metrics, so far they have 2020 at 1,001,381
and 2021 at 1,016,505
Until today, I had never seen any number lower than 1,001,381 deaths used for Germany in 2020, and had been using that to argue Germany despite being praised for "masterclass in science" had actually had nearly identical outcome as Sweden (as I tried to get Zeynep Tufekci to recognize among others) [2]
So, am I wrong along with with Mortality.org, OWID, and the 4th tab of the source file?
This is an important number to get right - would love to get an answer on what is going on. For all the other countries which I have a secondary set of data on excess deaths they always come in near identical to mortality.org (South Korea, Sweden, and the US have very good data sets they produce independently). My first pass translating the German hasn't revealed what may lead to discrepancy.
Moving on...
2) I understand the math and the logic behind the model the authors used to predict 2020 and 2021 deaths, but my instinct is that they overly analyzed a fairly simple estimate and, in the process, *may* have inflated the expected deaths quite a bit in Germany. Using a combination of 5 year average or linear forecast provides estimates that seem more probable in my opinion (OWID previously used 5 year average to predict excess death, but later moved to linear regression with some other tweaks to calculate excess death).
Consider all-cause mortality for some selected countries I pulled from mortality.org, which is what "Our World In Data" uses for it's excess mortality estimations. Here's a view of selected countries, columns B through H give total deaths from 2015 through 2021 for 19 countries (I excluded many which are incomplete for 2021). For a moment put a pin in the question of what is the "right" number for Germany in 2020.
Intuitively, if you just go along year by year, across 2015 to 2020, I would have expected around 940K deaths in Germany in 2020 without Covid, with maybe 5K variance. The linear forecast (column J) puts it at 944,521 while the 5 year average (column K) would be 933,087.
For the authors to predict 981,389 deaths in 2020, which is 5% Year-over-Year increase over 2020 feels to far right on the bell curve to be probable.
Quickly going back for 20 years of deaths in Germany we see typically < 2-3% variation outside of 2015 which had a very unusual +8% increase in deaths [3]
So I find the authors baseline of 981K deaths to be unlikely in a non-Covid world (or non-Covid over reaction), and therefore makes the "there were no excess deaths in 2020" for Germany claim incorrect.
I might be quite wrong. Definitely need to understand the 15K gap in deaths between Tab 3 and Tab 4 (and Mortality.org), and I will need to re-read their paper again and see if the math is more convincing on 2nd read. I feel like the tree swing engineer cartoon [4] though fits how to predict deaths, but maybe I am simplifying.
[3] Except in the US, there was a very significant increase in mortality in 2015 I have never seen explained anywhere. My temporary theory is that MERS or some other disease killed more people than we realized, only since we weren't obsessed with PCR testing we just carried on and lived normally - so if this is remotely true gives us perhaps alternate reality of what 2020 could have been like if we just didn't make Covid Zero an impractical obsession.
The official number of deaths in 2020 is 985,572. The figure 1,001,404 is the sum total of deaths in calendar weeks 1-53 of 2020 (from time to time, there has to be a year with 53 calendar weeks (KW = Kalenderwoche), and 2020 is one). This period contains the last two days of 2019 and the first three days of 2021, therefore the difference.
Regarding the expected number of deaths, you have to take into account the ageing population. In particular, there were around 4.5 mn people 80+ at the end of 2014, but 5.7 mn at the end of 2019. My own computations of the numbers of expected deaths are very similar.
Thanks for your follow-up, disappointed I didn't catch that myself as it explains identical problem I had with external Sweden source (though since smaller population the signal was weaker). I wrote to the authors before you responded and got the following nice reply:
"first of all the Federal Statistical Office is not very communicative,
so I never got any serious answer to my questions. Thus I can only offer
suggestions.
1. The number of deaths: It seems that tab 4 D_2016_2022_KW_AG_Ins gives
the number of deaths in the whole week, not only the days of the week
belonging to year 2020, resp. 2021. the number of deaths in Tab 7
D_2016_2022_Monate_AG_Ins again coincides with tab 4. It is unclear to
me why other sources like mortality.org use different numbers.
2. Taking mean values of past years is a bad idea because of the rapidly
changing population structure in Germany. My fist step a year ago (just
to get an idea of what's going on) was to use regression models for the
years 2010-2019 and to use this for a forecast. But the change in the
population is not linear, so the regression depends on the choice of the
years you take into account. E.g. there was a trend change in 2009/10,
before 2009 the number of deaths decreased due to the age structure of
the population (and migration, etc.), since 2010 its increasing.
Thus - being an actuarian by education - I changed to the usual method
used in insurance companies and also by the Federal Statistical
Institute: multiply the number of individuals by the probability to die.
This yields more realistic values.
3. The empirical variance in the last 10 years seems to be of order
12.000 - 14.000 with maximal deviation of 25.000 (precise numbers
depending also on the details of the model used to predict). For 2020
this shows that 'nothing can be seen' and 2021 is 'at the border'. (One
of my actuarial colleagues noted that if he had never heard the word
'Corona' who would not have noticed that there is something terrible
going on ...) Yet this includes the year 2014 (extremely few people
died) and 2015 (large number of deaths). It is a matter of taste if such
Indeed, there is a correlation between vaccination and mortality. Maybe mortality causes vaccination? Maybe someone has invented a time machine so that mortality-induced vaccination is possible.
Speaking of pathological Germans...or German pathologists...I can never keep them straight.
1) How is the 2020 excess so low? For sure covid has been greatly exaggerated, but by that much?
2) More specifically, how are the 80+ excesses for both 2020 and 2021 so low? In both years these are fragile people facing deadly lockdown, deadly virus, and/or deadly vaccine. I know many of them were going to die soon in any case, but I am skeptical that can explain it fully.
Usually we see an influenza wave in February/March, but that went missing in 2020 and Covid filled the gap later in the year. The year 2021 had a really bad January but then the fuel had been burnt (very few deaths in February and March).
In general, in countries with pronounced seasonality, it is more instructive to not study calendar years but periods from July to June. For a diagram that separates 1st and 2nd half of the year, cf. my post here: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/die-a-grams
Nach Zahlen des stat. Bundesamts sind in 2021 598.672 Personen im Alter über 80 gestorben. Die Einwohnerzahl Ende 2020 in dieser Altersgruppe belief sich auf 5.936.434. In 2021 ist also etwa jeder zehnte (10,08%) Einwohner im Alter von 80 und mehr Jahren gestorben.
2021 10,08%
2020 10,18%
2019 9,94%
2018 10,42%
2017 10,48%
2016 10,43%
2015 11,00%
2014 10,49%
2013 10,93%
2012 10,74%
Rechnet man das gleiche in der Altersgrupppe 60-80 sind in 2021 598.672 von 18.153.339 Einwohnern gestorben.
2021 1,81%
2020 1,77%
2019 1,76%
2018 1,83%
2017 1,82%
2016 1,83%
2015 1,88%
2014 1,82%
2013 1,88%
2012 1,86%
Bei den unter 40jährigen sind von 35.689.968 Einwohnern in 2021 75.082 gestorben. In Prozent ausgedrückt
2021 0,04%
2020 0,04%
2019 0,04%
2018 0,04%
2017 0,04%
2016 0,04%
2015 0,04%
2014 0,04%
2013 0,04%
2012 0,04% (Unterschiede gibt es erst ab der dritten Nachkommastelle)
Die Altersgruppe zwischen 40 und 60 mit 0,30 bis 0,32% spare ich mir an dieser Stelle einzeln aufzulisten.
Unser Problem ist die Altersstruktur. Nicht mehr und nicht weniger.
Your number 598,672 for 80+ is roughly correct, those for 60-80 and 0-40 are wrong (should be 330,566 and 14,379; I presume you copied 80+ to 60-80, and swapped 0-40 and 40-60). Yes, the changing age structure of the population has to be taken into account (Simpson's paradox is lurking). For 0-75, 2021 has been the worst year in recent history, by a margin. For 75, the situation is different but 2021 has stopped a downward trend of mortality rates.
I've been following you since 2020 and don't recall you showing even 50K excess deaths for 2020 in the US. I'm nervous that Dowd is getting bad data even though it says CDC. We know from the insurance companies that death claims for working age are up ~40% for many companies, so there's disastrous mortality occurring. We don't want the message to get sidetracked by bad data.
They can only tip toe around this issue for so long. It's time to pay the piper, and soon.
The data is becoming overwhelming. Tom Renz sees it, too.
https://clearnewswire.com/596951.html
This makes me sick. A good friend and classmate of my son had to resign her Navy commission and pay back her training in the $200k range because she would not take this vaccine. She took others but not this.
Thanks for posting this, Joel!
Would you know if they posted a version in German? Could be useful to show a few German friends whose skepticism I find lacking.
I came across this article from the lead author "The increase in excess mortality in the temporal context of COVID vaccinations" https://corona-transition.org/IMG/pdf/u_bersterblichkeit_impfungen_analysen_open_access_21.1.2022.pdf
I haven't dug into it yet, but here is an interview with him on this (translated with english subtitles) https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/covid-19-german-professor-uncovers-alarming-pattern-in-mortality-data-is-there-a-link-between-vaccination-and-excess-mortality/
It's also on OSF: https://osf.io/5gu8a/
And: https://7argumente.de/anlage-5/
Thanks, Michael and cm27874. The corona-transition and the OSF ones are a different document, though on the same topic. The 7argumente one is at a quick glance very similar to this one that Joel links, with some differences in the headings. These could come in handy in my attempts to convince my German friends that I'm not a Verschwörungstheoretiker (conspiracy theorist).
'may be related to the COVID vaccines that were the first-time used and administered population-wide in 2021' file that under: No shit!
Inspired by some of the comments to this post, I have presented some German mortality data in a user-friendly, diagram-heavy way: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/die-a-grams
Also, many thanks to Joel Smalley for publishing Kuhbandner's and Reitzner's work, and for his own work on the same topic (https://metatron.substack.com/p/young-german-men-dying-in-vain, https://metatron.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-in-germany)
Thank you for sharing your important research!
👏👏👏👏❤🙌🙌🙏
Beautifully succinct. Its going to get REALLY awkward in the very near future and REALLY ugly obvious, as more people ride the booster train...😢😭
Here in New Zealand (& Australia) I have published several videos on exactly the same topic. Take a look: https://www.bitchute.com/video/dASUoQ92PTbD/ https://www.bitchute.com/video/I3tryLIdg6gY/
Nothing to see here, just some "Undesirable Side Effects" of Experimental Gene Therapy they KNEW about :
mRNA "Vaccines" Are Gene Therapy. May cause Undesirable Side Effects That Could Delay Or Prevent Their Regulatory Approval According To BioNTech SEC Filing
The Truth About "Safe and Effective" mRNA "Vaccines" Hidden In Plain Sight
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/mrna-vaccines-are-gene-therapy-may
Pfizer Documents Show FDA Knew of Death Risk
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/dr-michael-yeadon-this-must-stop
I've been tracking excess deaths closely the last two years, so I have some questions, suggestions, and feedback for the authors on this paper. I also found a (potentially) significant discrepancy in their source data. Note that this is my "first reaction" thoughts:
1) There appears to be a discrepancy in the deaths for 2020 and (to a lesser extent) 2021 that I want to understand. The authors pull data from here [1] which leads to an excel sheet providing two different numbers. The third tab (D_2016_2022_Tage) notes deaths at 985,572 in 2020 and 1,020,702 in 2021. These are the numbers cited by the authors which they base excess deaths around.
However, the fourth tab (D_2016_2022_KW_AG_Ins) puts deaths at 1,001,404 in 2020 and 1,016,764 in 2021.
Additionally, mortality.org, which is also used by Our World in Data among others, puts deaths in Germany almost identically to the 4th tab metrics, so far they have 2020 at 1,001,381
and 2021 at 1,016,505
Until today, I had never seen any number lower than 1,001,381 deaths used for Germany in 2020, and had been using that to argue Germany despite being praised for "masterclass in science" had actually had nearly identical outcome as Sweden (as I tried to get Zeynep Tufekci to recognize among others) [2]
So, am I wrong along with with Mortality.org, OWID, and the 4th tab of the source file?
This is an important number to get right - would love to get an answer on what is going on. For all the other countries which I have a secondary set of data on excess deaths they always come in near identical to mortality.org (South Korea, Sweden, and the US have very good data sets they produce independently). My first pass translating the German hasn't revealed what may lead to discrepancy.
Moving on...
2) I understand the math and the logic behind the model the authors used to predict 2020 and 2021 deaths, but my instinct is that they overly analyzed a fairly simple estimate and, in the process, *may* have inflated the expected deaths quite a bit in Germany. Using a combination of 5 year average or linear forecast provides estimates that seem more probable in my opinion (OWID previously used 5 year average to predict excess death, but later moved to linear regression with some other tweaks to calculate excess death).
Consider all-cause mortality for some selected countries I pulled from mortality.org, which is what "Our World In Data" uses for it's excess mortality estimations. Here's a view of selected countries, columns B through H give total deaths from 2015 through 2021 for 19 countries (I excluded many which are incomplete for 2021). For a moment put a pin in the question of what is the "right" number for Germany in 2020.
Spreadsheet image here:
https://imgur.com/a/h4dhZMT
Intuitively, if you just go along year by year, across 2015 to 2020, I would have expected around 940K deaths in Germany in 2020 without Covid, with maybe 5K variance. The linear forecast (column J) puts it at 944,521 while the 5 year average (column K) would be 933,087.
For the authors to predict 981,389 deaths in 2020, which is 5% Year-over-Year increase over 2020 feels to far right on the bell curve to be probable.
Quickly going back for 20 years of deaths in Germany we see typically < 2-3% variation outside of 2015 which had a very unusual +8% increase in deaths [3]
(Quick and dirty calculation here}:
https://imgur.com/a/gkJnfwE
So I find the authors baseline of 981K deaths to be unlikely in a non-Covid world (or non-Covid over reaction), and therefore makes the "there were no excess deaths in 2020" for Germany claim incorrect.
I might be quite wrong. Definitely need to understand the 15K gap in deaths between Tab 3 and Tab 4 (and Mortality.org), and I will need to re-read their paper again and see if the math is more convincing on 2nd read. I feel like the tree swing engineer cartoon [4] though fits how to predict deaths, but maybe I am simplifying.
[1] https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Lebenserwartung/Tabellen/sonderauswertung-sterbefaelle.html
[2] https://www.theinsight.org/p/open-thread-31222-guns-of-august/comment/5517483?s=r
[3] Except in the US, there was a very significant increase in mortality in 2015 I have never seen explained anywhere. My temporary theory is that MERS or some other disease killed more people than we realized, only since we weren't obsessed with PCR testing we just carried on and lived normally - so if this is remotely true gives us perhaps alternate reality of what 2020 could have been like if we just didn't make Covid Zero an impractical obsession.
[4] https://amalgamated-contemplation.com/2011/02/13/the-project-management-tree-swing-cartoon-past-and-present/
The official number of deaths in 2020 is 985,572. The figure 1,001,404 is the sum total of deaths in calendar weeks 1-53 of 2020 (from time to time, there has to be a year with 53 calendar weeks (KW = Kalenderwoche), and 2020 is one). This period contains the last two days of 2019 and the first three days of 2021, therefore the difference.
Regarding the expected number of deaths, you have to take into account the ageing population. In particular, there were around 4.5 mn people 80+ at the end of 2014, but 5.7 mn at the end of 2019. My own computations of the numbers of expected deaths are very similar.
Thanks for your follow-up, disappointed I didn't catch that myself as it explains identical problem I had with external Sweden source (though since smaller population the signal was weaker). I wrote to the authors before you responded and got the following nice reply:
"first of all the Federal Statistical Office is not very communicative,
so I never got any serious answer to my questions. Thus I can only offer
suggestions.
1. The number of deaths: It seems that tab 4 D_2016_2022_KW_AG_Ins gives
the number of deaths in the whole week, not only the days of the week
belonging to year 2020, resp. 2021. the number of deaths in Tab 7
D_2016_2022_Monate_AG_Ins again coincides with tab 4. It is unclear to
me why other sources like mortality.org use different numbers.
2. Taking mean values of past years is a bad idea because of the rapidly
changing population structure in Germany. My fist step a year ago (just
to get an idea of what's going on) was to use regression models for the
years 2010-2019 and to use this for a forecast. But the change in the
population is not linear, so the regression depends on the choice of the
years you take into account. E.g. there was a trend change in 2009/10,
before 2009 the number of deaths decreased due to the age structure of
the population (and migration, etc.), since 2010 its increasing.
Thus - being an actuarian by education - I changed to the usual method
used in insurance companies and also by the Federal Statistical
Institute: multiply the number of individuals by the probability to die.
This yields more realistic values.
3. The empirical variance in the last 10 years seems to be of order
12.000 - 14.000 with maximal deviation of 25.000 (precise numbers
depending also on the details of the model used to predict). For 2020
this shows that 'nothing can be seen' and 2021 is 'at the border'. (One
of my actuarial colleagues noted that if he had never heard the word
'Corona' who would not have noticed that there is something terrible
going on ...) Yet this includes the year 2014 (extremely few people
died) and 2015 (large number of deaths). It is a matter of taste if such
years are 'normal' or should be excluded ...
I hope this helps a little bit. Best wishes,
Matthias Reitzner"
Indeed, there is a correlation between vaccination and mortality. Maybe mortality causes vaccination? Maybe someone has invented a time machine so that mortality-induced vaccination is possible.
Speaking of pathological Germans...or German pathologists...I can never keep them straight.
https://pathologie-konferenz.de/en/
A couple things I don't understand:
1) How is the 2020 excess so low? For sure covid has been greatly exaggerated, but by that much?
2) More specifically, how are the 80+ excesses for both 2020 and 2021 so low? In both years these are fragile people facing deadly lockdown, deadly virus, and/or deadly vaccine. I know many of them were going to die soon in any case, but I am skeptical that can explain it fully.
Usually we see an influenza wave in February/March, but that went missing in 2020 and Covid filled the gap later in the year. The year 2021 had a really bad January but then the fuel had been burnt (very few deaths in February and March).
In general, in countries with pronounced seasonality, it is more instructive to not study calendar years but periods from July to June. For a diagram that separates 1st and 2nd half of the year, cf. my post here: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/die-a-grams
lockdowns
Oh boy... Giving me this is like giving a starving soul a newly grilled, juicy chicken! :D Thank you for posting this!
In the US in 2021, there was a
14.5% decline in deaths in 85+ y.o. group
17% increase in working age deaths
About a third of the increase in working age deaths was due to covid.
Sorry, in german:
Nach Zahlen des stat. Bundesamts sind in 2021 598.672 Personen im Alter über 80 gestorben. Die Einwohnerzahl Ende 2020 in dieser Altersgruppe belief sich auf 5.936.434. In 2021 ist also etwa jeder zehnte (10,08%) Einwohner im Alter von 80 und mehr Jahren gestorben.
2021 10,08%
2020 10,18%
2019 9,94%
2018 10,42%
2017 10,48%
2016 10,43%
2015 11,00%
2014 10,49%
2013 10,93%
2012 10,74%
Rechnet man das gleiche in der Altersgrupppe 60-80 sind in 2021 598.672 von 18.153.339 Einwohnern gestorben.
2021 1,81%
2020 1,77%
2019 1,76%
2018 1,83%
2017 1,82%
2016 1,83%
2015 1,88%
2014 1,82%
2013 1,88%
2012 1,86%
Bei den unter 40jährigen sind von 35.689.968 Einwohnern in 2021 75.082 gestorben. In Prozent ausgedrückt
2021 0,04%
2020 0,04%
2019 0,04%
2018 0,04%
2017 0,04%
2016 0,04%
2015 0,04%
2014 0,04%
2013 0,04%
2012 0,04% (Unterschiede gibt es erst ab der dritten Nachkommastelle)
Die Altersgruppe zwischen 40 und 60 mit 0,30 bis 0,32% spare ich mir an dieser Stelle einzeln aufzulisten.
Unser Problem ist die Altersstruktur. Nicht mehr und nicht weniger.
Your number 598,672 for 80+ is roughly correct, those for 60-80 and 0-40 are wrong (should be 330,566 and 14,379; I presume you copied 80+ to 60-80, and swapped 0-40 and 40-60). Yes, the changing age structure of the population has to be taken into account (Simpson's paradox is lurking). For 0-75, 2021 has been the worst year in recent history, by a margin. For 75, the situation is different but 2021 has stopped a downward trend of mortality rates.
Joel, what's your take on Edward Dowd's latest "500K excess deaths" in the US, 2020 and 2021: https://gettr.com/post/p120pa3d8e6
I've been following you since 2020 and don't recall you showing even 50K excess deaths for 2020 in the US. I'm nervous that Dowd is getting bad data even though it says CDC. We know from the insurance companies that death claims for working age are up ~40% for many companies, so there's disastrous mortality occurring. We don't want the message to get sidetracked by bad data.