They can only tip toe around this issue for so long. It's time to pay the piper, and soon.

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The data is becoming overwhelming. Tom Renz sees it, too.


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Thanks for posting this, Joel!

Would you know if they posted a version in German? Could be useful to show a few German friends whose skepticism I find lacking.

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'may be related to the COVID vaccines that were the first-time used and administered population-wide in 2021' file that under: No shit!

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Inspired by some of the comments to this post, I have presented some German mortality data in a user-friendly, diagram-heavy way: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/die-a-grams

Also, many thanks to Joel Smalley for publishing Kuhbandner's and Reitzner's work, and for his own work on the same topic (https://metatron.substack.com/p/young-german-men-dying-in-vain, https://metatron.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-in-germany)

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Thank you for sharing your important research!

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Beautifully succinct. Its going to get REALLY awkward in the very near future and REALLY ugly obvious, as more people ride the booster train...😢😭

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Here in New Zealand (& Australia) I have published several videos on exactly the same topic. Take a look: https://www.bitchute.com/video/dASUoQ92PTbD/ https://www.bitchute.com/video/I3tryLIdg6gY/

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Nothing to see here, just some "Undesirable Side Effects" of Experimental Gene Therapy they KNEW about :

mRNA "Vaccines" Are Gene Therapy. May cause Undesirable Side Effects That Could Delay Or Prevent Their Regulatory Approval According To BioNTech SEC Filing

The Truth About "Safe and Effective" mRNA "Vaccines" Hidden In Plain Sight


Pfizer Documents Show FDA Knew of Death Risk


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I've been tracking excess deaths closely the last two years, so I have some questions, suggestions, and feedback for the authors on this paper. I also found a (potentially) significant discrepancy in their source data. Note that this is my "first reaction" thoughts:

1) There appears to be a discrepancy in the deaths for 2020 and (to a lesser extent) 2021 that I want to understand. The authors pull data from here [1] which leads to an excel sheet providing two different numbers. The third tab (D_2016_2022_Tage) notes deaths at 985,572 in 2020 and 1,020,702 in 2021. These are the numbers cited by the authors which they base excess deaths around.

However, the fourth tab (D_2016_2022_KW_AG_Ins) puts deaths at 1,001,404 in 2020 and 1,016,764 in 2021.

Additionally, mortality.org, which is also used by Our World in Data among others, puts deaths in Germany almost identically to the 4th tab metrics, so far they have 2020 at 1,001,381

and 2021 at 1,016,505

Until today, I had never seen any number lower than 1,001,381 deaths used for Germany in 2020, and had been using that to argue Germany despite being praised for "masterclass in science" had actually had nearly identical outcome as Sweden (as I tried to get Zeynep Tufekci to recognize among others) [2]

So, am I wrong along with with Mortality.org, OWID, and the 4th tab of the source file?

This is an important number to get right - would love to get an answer on what is going on. For all the other countries which I have a secondary set of data on excess deaths they always come in near identical to mortality.org (South Korea, Sweden, and the US have very good data sets they produce independently). My first pass translating the German hasn't revealed what may lead to discrepancy.

Moving on...

2) I understand the math and the logic behind the model the authors used to predict 2020 and 2021 deaths, but my instinct is that they overly analyzed a fairly simple estimate and, in the process, *may* have inflated the expected deaths quite a bit in Germany. Using a combination of 5 year average or linear forecast provides estimates that seem more probable in my opinion (OWID previously used 5 year average to predict excess death, but later moved to linear regression with some other tweaks to calculate excess death).

Consider all-cause mortality for some selected countries I pulled from mortality.org, which is what "Our World In Data" uses for it's excess mortality estimations. Here's a view of selected countries, columns B through H give total deaths from 2015 through 2021 for 19 countries (I excluded many which are incomplete for 2021). For a moment put a pin in the question of what is the "right" number for Germany in 2020.

Spreadsheet image here:


Intuitively, if you just go along year by year, across 2015 to 2020, I would have expected around 940K deaths in Germany in 2020 without Covid, with maybe 5K variance. The linear forecast (column J) puts it at 944,521 while the 5 year average (column K) would be 933,087.

For the authors to predict 981,389 deaths in 2020, which is 5% Year-over-Year increase over 2020 feels to far right on the bell curve to be probable.

Quickly going back for 20 years of deaths in Germany we see typically < 2-3% variation outside of 2015 which had a very unusual +8% increase in deaths [3]

(Quick and dirty calculation here}:


So I find the authors baseline of 981K deaths to be unlikely in a non-Covid world (or non-Covid over reaction), and therefore makes the "there were no excess deaths in 2020" for Germany claim incorrect.

I might be quite wrong. Definitely need to understand the 15K gap in deaths between Tab 3 and Tab 4 (and Mortality.org), and I will need to re-read their paper again and see if the math is more convincing on 2nd read. I feel like the tree swing engineer cartoon [4] though fits how to predict deaths, but maybe I am simplifying.

[1] https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Lebenserwartung/Tabellen/sonderauswertung-sterbefaelle.html

[2] https://www.theinsight.org/p/open-thread-31222-guns-of-august/comment/5517483?s=r

[3] Except in the US, there was a very significant increase in mortality in 2015 I have never seen explained anywhere. My temporary theory is that MERS or some other disease killed more people than we realized, only since we weren't obsessed with PCR testing we just carried on and lived normally - so if this is remotely true gives us perhaps alternate reality of what 2020 could have been like if we just didn't make Covid Zero an impractical obsession.

[4] https://amalgamated-contemplation.com/2011/02/13/the-project-management-tree-swing-cartoon-past-and-present/

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Indeed, there is a correlation between vaccination and mortality. Maybe mortality causes vaccination? Maybe someone has invented a time machine so that mortality-induced vaccination is possible.

Speaking of pathological Germans...or German pathologists...I can never keep them straight.


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A couple things I don't understand:

1) How is the 2020 excess so low? For sure covid has been greatly exaggerated, but by that much?

2) More specifically, how are the 80+ excesses for both 2020 and 2021 so low? In both years these are fragile people facing deadly lockdown, deadly virus, and/or deadly vaccine. I know many of them were going to die soon in any case, but I am skeptical that can explain it fully.

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Oh boy... Giving me this is like giving a starving soul a newly grilled, juicy chicken! :D Thank you for posting this!

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In the US in 2021, there was a

14.5% decline in deaths in 85+ y.o. group

17% increase in working age deaths

About a third of the increase in working age deaths was due to covid.

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Sorry, in german:

Nach Zahlen des stat. Bundesamts sind in 2021 598.672 Personen im Alter über 80 gestorben. Die Einwohnerzahl Ende 2020 in dieser Altersgruppe belief sich auf 5.936.434. In 2021 ist also etwa jeder zehnte (10,08%) Einwohner im Alter von 80 und mehr Jahren gestorben.

2021 10,08%

2020 10,18%

2019 9,94%

2018 10,42%

2017 10,48%

2016 10,43%

2015 11,00%

2014 10,49%

2013 10,93%

2012 10,74%

Rechnet man das gleiche in der Altersgrupppe 60-80 sind in 2021 598.672 von 18.153.339 Einwohnern gestorben.

2021 1,81%

2020 1,77%

2019 1,76%

2018 1,83%

2017 1,82%

2016 1,83%

2015 1,88%

2014 1,82%

2013 1,88%

2012 1,86%

Bei den unter 40jährigen sind von 35.689.968 Einwohnern in 2021 75.082 gestorben. In Prozent ausgedrückt

2021 0,04%

2020 0,04%

2019 0,04%

2018 0,04%

2017 0,04%

2016 0,04%

2015 0,04%

2014 0,04%

2013 0,04%

2012 0,04% (Unterschiede gibt es erst ab der dritten Nachkommastelle)

Die Altersgruppe zwischen 40 und 60 mit 0,30 bis 0,32% spare ich mir an dieser Stelle einzeln aufzulisten.

Unser Problem ist die Altersstruktur. Nicht mehr und nicht weniger.

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Joel, what's your take on Edward Dowd's latest "500K excess deaths" in the US, 2020 and 2021: https://gettr.com/post/p120pa3d8e6

I've been following you since 2020 and don't recall you showing even 50K excess deaths for 2020 in the US. I'm nervous that Dowd is getting bad data even though it says CDC. We know from the insurance companies that death claims for working age are up ~40% for many companies, so there's disastrous mortality occurring. We don't want the message to get sidetracked by bad data.

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