Higher COVID-19 mRNA injections "vax" are associated with lower excess death rates.

But it's a Pyrrhic victory as there is more excess death in the post-vax era.

If we look at Belgium as an example, we can fit a linear trend to cumulative excess deaths between the advent of COVID mortality in March 2020 and the start of the vax campaign in Dec 2020 - the “Pre-Vax Rate”.

We can also fit a linear trend for the whole period from March 2020 to Feb 2022 - the “Post-Vax Rate”. If the vax is effective in safely reducing COVID mortality, we should expect the post-vax rate to be lower.

As we have discussed many times previously, we should also expect the rate to be lower even in the absence of a safe and effective vax due to depleted vulnerable population, better treatments and greater herd immunity.

Does this account for the situation in Belgium?

If that is the case, how do we explain the situation in countries like Bulgaria:

and Chile:

where the death rate is higher post-vax?

---

I took all 37 countries in the Our World in Data dataset that had weekly excess death data and regressed change in excess death rate against pre-vax excess deaths, vaccinated population and GDP to try and account for confounding.

All three variables are significant and have a negative correlation with change in excess death rate, i.e. the higher they are, the greater the reduction in excess death rate.

This looks like an endorsement of the vax.

---

However, if we look at some other aspects of the data, some paradoxes appear.

My first observation is that only 12 of the 37 countries (32%) had lower excess deaths since the start of their vax campaigns than before and only 15 (41%) had lower excess death rates.

So, the fact that there are better outcomes for higher vaxxed countries is looking like a Pyrrhic victory.

How can this be?

Another observation I make is that the richer western European and North American nations appear to have suffered the worse outcomes in the first wave of COVID and then exclusively account for the lower excess death rates post-vax.

Conversely, the poorer western European nations and South Africa account for the substantially worse outcomes in the post-vax era.

---

The situation is very complex so I’m going to admit upfront that this hypothesis may appear somewhat convoluted but in the absence of better quality data for really low vax countries, this is the best I can do.

After discussion with my scientific colleagues, we believe the medical responses should again be given consideration.

Is it possible that a large part of the deaths in the west were driven by the misuse of “end-of-life” protocols (e.g. Midazolam in the UK) and inappropriate treatment (e.g. Remdesivir in North America), and mechanical ventilation and medically-induced comas?

Ironically, did the eastern nations not suffer the same fate because their poorer equipped healthcare structures were not geared up for these protocols and treatments?

Then, when the vax came along, did the east suffer worse because their vulnerable population was not as depleted as the west?

---

Is there an alternative hypothesis that explains why so many countries suffer worse outcomes post-vax than pre-vax and yet vax rate is negatively correlated with excess death rate?

Is it just a geographical and wealth thing and that is why there is no excess death in the east until Oct 2020?

---

Addendum

I wondered how the results might change if I started the trend for the eastern nations in Oct 2020 when COVID really first hit them instead of Mar 2020. So, for example, Bulgaria now looks like this:

The excess death rate is now lower post-vax, just like the western nations, “in spite” of a really low vax rate.

In fact, the aggregate results change completely:

The co-efficient on the vaccinated population turns from negative to positive but it also becomes insignificant. In fact, the only significant determinant of excess death rate change is the magnitude of pre-vax excess deaths. This supports the hypothesis that depleted vulnerable population is the real factor.

The vax appears to be of no material consequence in terms of excess mortality for all ages.