Using a novel, robust model as a function of year of birth to estimate excess deaths between 2020 and 2022, it is apparent that the "vaccine" epoch is worse than the virus.
Honest question; how can anyone still believe these novel sacred miracle elixir injections are beneficial? The American CDC is still promoting them to children ages six months and up. What is going on? Seriously! The excess mortality and life-altering side effects are absolutely undeniable at this point, both through data and thousands of real-life stories. It's like the greater society is zombified and many are still living under a great delusion.
> Honest question; how can anyone still believe these novel sacred miracle elixir injections are beneficial?
IMO these people are NPCs. They have limited programming to allow them to (barely) function in a modern society. The schools don't seem to teach them much useful stuff, nor do the parents. They are like a car with one square wheel. They get by but it's a really rough ride for them, and many of them will die or become disabled. We already have stats on the US disabled numbers growing more than usual post vaccine.
When they lie about everything -- when they use Remdesivir and Midazolam to murder thousands -- for the purpose of frightening billions into injecting a substance that destroys their immune system...
Discard the stupidity hypothesis ... and embrace malice.
This has been in the planning for decades... by the best scientists on the planet ... it is being organized by the best PR people on the planet... it is supported by every country on the planet.
There is no stupidity at all here. It is diabolically brilliant.
You wrote: "In absolute terms, annual mortality for each single year of age from 30 up to 75 years, is demonstrably higher in 2021, the first year of the COVID 'vaccine' than for 2020, the year of the 'novel' virus (Figure 1)."
However there was negative excess mortality in the first two months of 2020 both according to OWID and according to my own calculation of seasonal excess mortality: https://i.ibb.co/WW2WmKJ/england-wales-weekly-excess-mortality.png. UK didn't cross 100 cumulative COVID deaths until March 17th.
There was also a huge number of COVID deaths in January 2021 but only about 14% of people in the UK were vaccinated at the end of January 2021 according to OWID (and the daily average percentage of vaccinated people in January 2021 is of course much lower). According to OWID which uses excess mortality data from the World Mortality Dataset, the peak in excess deaths in the UK was on the week ending January 10th 2021, but at that point only about 3% of the population was vaccinated.
The increase in excess deaths which peaked around January 2021 had already started around September 2020, and from September 2020 until January 2021, there was a gradual increase in the PCR positivity rate, excess deaths, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater, and COVID deaths: https://i.ibb.co/gFhxYN2/england-uk-age-groups-pcr-wastewater.png. So just because the peak of deaths coincided with the vaccine rollout doesn't mean that the entire wave of deaths was caused by the vaccines. And in other Western European countries the deaths had already peaked in December 2020 or November 2020 before the jabs were rolled out (including Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, France, and Italy): https://i.ibb.co/M6K53W6/owid-heatmap-excess-mortality-new-vax-pcr-positivity.png.
I did some investigation myself which centred on excess deaths from December 2020 through February 2021 to calculate percentage proximity of excess deaths to jabs.
I don't have a good explanation for the progressive increases in excess deaths in the months prior to December 2020 other than non-pharmaceutical interventions and other medical mishaps to account for the series of excess deaths and increases in Covid-19 diagnosis.
Similarly, there is synchronicity in excess deaths in the very elderly whether jabbed or unjabbed, but there is still an impulse response evident in the slightly younger groups.
One possible explanation is that the jabs caused Covid to spread via temporarily weakened immune systems in the very elderly, but we will probably never know.
I published data on Indonesia on my substack. For a few months in 2021 there was one new positive test per 50 jabs. I haven't as yet checked elsewhere to see if the same correlation is observable. Just sayin'.
You are right to look at intervals within this timeframe in order to establish a temporal relationship. Viewing the entirety of 2021 as a single interval ignores much temporal detail. In the UK, there were Covid waves Dec 2020/Jan 2021, Jun 2021/Aug 2021 and Dec 2021/Feb 2022. There were vaccination "waves" in Jan 2021/Jun 2021 and Nov 2021/Jan 2022.
As you can see, there is overlap in these waves, however, it isn't difficult to see that the excess mortality peaks correlate better with the Covid peaks and not with the vaccination peaks.
PS. It is also good that you look at other countries. Covid outbreaks and vaccination rollouts occurred at different times in different places. It isn't hard to find examples where there is an absence of overlap between vaccinations and new outbreaks.
Thanks for the referral. I figured you had one or two places in mind, and I probably would not have picked up on the timing very easily. There's bound to be a theory somewhere on the timing for correlations, and I'd guess that would be a fraction of a week to be sure of what was happening.
I calculated excess mortality for each age group by first doing a linear regression for the data from 2015-2019, then calculating the average difference from the regression line for each 366 days of the year in 2015-2019, and then adding the daily difference to the trend for the corresponding day of each subsequent year.
Food for thought. Thankyou. However ... any number of things could have caused the excess deaths. Diet, lifestyle, depression, long covid, vaccines, loneliness, deferred medical care, etc etc etc. The causes may all themselves have been caused in some way by the pandemic, but jumping straight to vaccine as sole or primary cause is a stretch, based purely on the data presented. I personally suspect, like many others, that the vaccines did substantially contribute to exces deaths, but the data in this article does not establish that.
Nonsense. If it was any of those other things, the rise in mortality would be chronic. This is acute. Add to that the hundreds of time series analyses done that show temporal proximity to the vaccine and Occam's razor puts it firmly in first place. No room for dogmatic speculation in the presence of so much empirical evidence.
There are a number of studies which provide a convincing theory and data for the vaccines causing excess deaths. However the paper in question here does not, at least in my opinion provide such evidence. It is nonetheless useful data and analysis. and can bolster a covid vaccine argument when combined with the data and analyses from other studies. Thankyou for providing it.
I refer to the body of evidence across all domains, including the ADR systems analysis of Jessica Rose, disability analyses of Josh Stirling and Ed Dowd, care home analyses of Steve Kirsch, comprehensive medical literature reviews of Peter McCullough, inside industry reports of Mike Yeadon, biological reports of Geoff Pain, pathology reports of Cole, Bhakdi, the anecdotal reports of Mark Crispin Miller (died suddenly), the epidemiological work of Ioanides, Engler and Jikky, etc. etc. etc., many of which are referenced in the 500+ mortality time series studies I have done myself and thousands more done by the likes of Fenton, Martin Neil, Clare Craig, Ethical Skeptic, Rebekah Barnett, John Dee, Denis Rancourt, to name just a few... The totality of the evidence only supports one hypothesis.
There is a study which directly links vaccine introduction and sudden excess mortality in 19 countries of global south. The correlation is indisputable.
For example on pages 86-91 of the paper there's plots for all-cause mortality and weekly number of new vaccines in Peru by age group. The spike in excess deaths in early 2021 occurs around the same time in all age groups, even though older age groups got vaccinated much earlier than younger age groups: https://i.ibb.co/mqKg45q/rancourt-peru-age-groups.gif.
... let's do the opposite, can you show me proof that the vaccine had some benefit instead of killing people and money laundering? You can name any improvement after vaccine introduction in anything health, muscle, fitness, strength, vision, life expectancy, super powers, anything.
Out of the southern-hemisphere countries in Rancourt's new paper, countries with a lower percentage of vaccinated population in 2021 tended to have higher excess mortality in 2021: https://i.ibb.co/DQW0Krz/rancourt-southern-xy.png. Out of the four Asian countries, Singapore had both the highest vaccinated percent and the lowest excess mortality but Philippines had both the lowest vaccinated percent and highest excess mortality. And in South America the two countries with the highest vaccinated percent were Uruguay and Chile, but they were also the two countries with the lowest excess mortality.
You asked me to give an example of where the vaccines had an improvement to factors such as life expectancy, but don't you think it's an improvement in life expectancy if you have less people dying? (I don't necessarily think so because it might be better to have lower life expectancy or to have more people dying.)
But anyway, in the northern hemisphere, there was also lower excess mortality in 2021 in countries with a higher average percentage of vaccinated people: https://i.ibb.co/y457r4R/owid-2021-vax-pct-vs-excess-mortality-countries.png. For example out of North and Central American countries with population above 5 million that were not missing data at OWID, Canada was the country with the highest percentage of vaccinated people but it was also the country with the lowest excess mortality.
"It is absurd to include these years (20, 21, 22) in baseline for future excess mortality studies." Yes, let's consider VAERS, the alarm bell of which is finetuned to compare to the past performance of all vaxes. All vaxes now on = corona injectables, the rest do not show up after this catastrophe.
But does it mean anything? the bell rang like 500 times, but they continued sleeping...
> it is apparent that the "vaccine" epoch is worse than the virus.
On your first graph on this page, I'm curious why you included 2020 in the graph. The virus wasn't confirmed to be a new virus by 2 labs until Jan 2020. The US vaccine didn't roll out until December 2020, and at that point, it was in very limited amounts. Is 2020 your control year to compare to 2021?
Just a thought - is it possible to "prove" the validity of the method by referencing earlier, non-C19 years? For example - could the method prove to accurately predict the outcomes by birth year for the calendar years - plucking a number out of the air - 2012 or 2004?
forgive me if that is (obviously) implicit in the maths of the method - but I have these thoughts that may not be "good"!
Honest question; how can anyone still believe these novel sacred miracle elixir injections are beneficial? The American CDC is still promoting them to children ages six months and up. What is going on? Seriously! The excess mortality and life-altering side effects are absolutely undeniable at this point, both through data and thousands of real-life stories. It's like the greater society is zombified and many are still living under a great delusion.
Blows my mind Blair 😭
Mine too. Mine too. 😭
True and how can anybody believe vaccines ever were of any use.
https://baldmichael.substack.com/p/why-vaccines-do-not-work-in-a-nutshell
> Honest question; how can anyone still believe these novel sacred miracle elixir injections are beneficial?
IMO these people are NPCs. They have limited programming to allow them to (barely) function in a modern society. The schools don't seem to teach them much useful stuff, nor do the parents. They are like a car with one square wheel. They get by but it's a really rough ride for them, and many of them will die or become disabled. We already have stats on the US disabled numbers growing more than usual post vaccine.
When they lie about everything -- when they use Remdesivir and Midazolam to murder thousands -- for the purpose of frightening billions into injecting a substance that destroys their immune system...
Discard the stupidity hypothesis ... and embrace malice.
This has been in the planning for decades... by the best scientists on the planet ... it is being organized by the best PR people on the planet... it is supported by every country on the planet.
There is no stupidity at all here. It is diabolically brilliant.
They are exterminating us. Out of necessity.
To not act - would result in a far worse outcome
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
You're wasting your time. Football players die at the age of 27 all the time . . . nothing to see here.
You wrote: "In absolute terms, annual mortality for each single year of age from 30 up to 75 years, is demonstrably higher in 2021, the first year of the COVID 'vaccine' than for 2020, the year of the 'novel' virus (Figure 1)."
However there was negative excess mortality in the first two months of 2020 both according to OWID and according to my own calculation of seasonal excess mortality: https://i.ibb.co/WW2WmKJ/england-wales-weekly-excess-mortality.png. UK didn't cross 100 cumulative COVID deaths until March 17th.
There was also a huge number of COVID deaths in January 2021 but only about 14% of people in the UK were vaccinated at the end of January 2021 according to OWID (and the daily average percentage of vaccinated people in January 2021 is of course much lower). According to OWID which uses excess mortality data from the World Mortality Dataset, the peak in excess deaths in the UK was on the week ending January 10th 2021, but at that point only about 3% of the population was vaccinated.
In January 2021 there were also a bunch of excess deaths in age groups 30-39 and 40-49, but the percentage of vaccinated person-years out of all person-years in January 2021 was about 3.5% for the age group 18-39 and about 5.2% for the age group 40-49 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland; Table 2 in third-newest version where data for January and February 2021 had not yet been omitted).
The increase in excess deaths which peaked around January 2021 had already started around September 2020, and from September 2020 until January 2021, there was a gradual increase in the PCR positivity rate, excess deaths, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater, and COVID deaths: https://i.ibb.co/gFhxYN2/england-uk-age-groups-pcr-wastewater.png. So just because the peak of deaths coincided with the vaccine rollout doesn't mean that the entire wave of deaths was caused by the vaccines. And in other Western European countries the deaths had already peaked in December 2020 or November 2020 before the jabs were rolled out (including Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, France, and Italy): https://i.ibb.co/M6K53W6/owid-heatmap-excess-mortality-new-vax-pcr-positivity.png.
I did some investigation myself which centred on excess deaths from December 2020 through February 2021 to calculate percentage proximity of excess deaths to jabs.
I don't have a good explanation for the progressive increases in excess deaths in the months prior to December 2020 other than non-pharmaceutical interventions and other medical mishaps to account for the series of excess deaths and increases in Covid-19 diagnosis.
Similarly, there is synchronicity in excess deaths in the very elderly whether jabbed or unjabbed, but there is still an impulse response evident in the slightly younger groups.
One possible explanation is that the jabs caused Covid to spread via temporarily weakened immune systems in the very elderly, but we will probably never know.
I published data on Indonesia on my substack. For a few months in 2021 there was one new positive test per 50 jabs. I haven't as yet checked elsewhere to see if the same correlation is observable. Just sayin'.
You are right to look at intervals within this timeframe in order to establish a temporal relationship. Viewing the entirety of 2021 as a single interval ignores much temporal detail. In the UK, there were Covid waves Dec 2020/Jan 2021, Jun 2021/Aug 2021 and Dec 2021/Feb 2022. There were vaccination "waves" in Jan 2021/Jun 2021 and Nov 2021/Jan 2022.
As you can see, there is overlap in these waves, however, it isn't difficult to see that the excess mortality peaks correlate better with the Covid peaks and not with the vaccination peaks.
PS. It is also good that you look at other countries. Covid outbreaks and vaccination rollouts occurred at different times in different places. It isn't hard to find examples where there is an absence of overlap between vaccinations and new outbreaks.
A couple of examples would be welcomed.
Well... in Canada, where I live, the initial vaccination "wave" was later than in the UK; Mar 2021/Jul 2021
The excess deaths in Jan and Feb 2021 could not have been caused by the vaccine, yet the author would include them as part of the "vaccine year".
Also, the excess mortality rate in Canada was at its lowest in Aug 2021, immediately following the vaccination program.
This is why it is critical to look at intervals within the year to determine actual correlations.
Thanks for the referral. I figured you had one or two places in mind, and I probably would not have picked up on the timing very easily. There's bound to be a theory somewhere on the timing for correlations, and I'd guess that would be a fraction of a week to be sure of what was happening.
I'll add Canada to my list.
If you divide 2020 into the part before and after mid-March, you can see that there was negative excess mortality among most ages before mid-March: https://i.ibb.co/S3cd1ZK/england-wales-2020-vs-2021-excess-mortality.png. R code: https://pastebin.com/raw/cnmHej18.
I calculated excess mortality for each age group by first doing a linear regression for the data from 2015-2019, then calculating the average difference from the regression line for each 366 days of the year in 2015-2019, and then adding the daily difference to the trend for the corresponding day of each subsequent year.
Food for thought. Thankyou. However ... any number of things could have caused the excess deaths. Diet, lifestyle, depression, long covid, vaccines, loneliness, deferred medical care, etc etc etc. The causes may all themselves have been caused in some way by the pandemic, but jumping straight to vaccine as sole or primary cause is a stretch, based purely on the data presented. I personally suspect, like many others, that the vaccines did substantially contribute to exces deaths, but the data in this article does not establish that.
Nonsense. If it was any of those other things, the rise in mortality would be chronic. This is acute. Add to that the hundreds of time series analyses done that show temporal proximity to the vaccine and Occam's razor puts it firmly in first place. No room for dogmatic speculation in the presence of so much empirical evidence.
There are a number of studies which provide a convincing theory and data for the vaccines causing excess deaths. However the paper in question here does not, at least in my opinion provide such evidence. It is nonetheless useful data and analysis. and can bolster a covid vaccine argument when combined with the data and analyses from other studies. Thankyou for providing it.
I refer to the body of evidence across all domains, including the ADR systems analysis of Jessica Rose, disability analyses of Josh Stirling and Ed Dowd, care home analyses of Steve Kirsch, comprehensive medical literature reviews of Peter McCullough, inside industry reports of Mike Yeadon, biological reports of Geoff Pain, pathology reports of Cole, Bhakdi, the anecdotal reports of Mark Crispin Miller (died suddenly), the epidemiological work of Ioanides, Engler and Jikky, etc. etc. etc., many of which are referenced in the 500+ mortality time series studies I have done myself and thousands more done by the likes of Fenton, Martin Neil, Clare Craig, Ethical Skeptic, Rebekah Barnett, John Dee, Denis Rancourt, to name just a few... The totality of the evidence only supports one hypothesis.
Some people are in denial or are paid professional discreditors.
There is a study which directly links vaccine introduction and sudden excess mortality in 19 countries of global south. The correlation is indisputable.
Read more here: https://correlation-canada.org/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality-in-the-southern-hemisphere/
I haven't finished reading the entire paper yet, but I have already found a bunch of things to dispute: https://mongol-fi.github.io/nopandemic.html#Paper_about_southern_hemisphere_countries_from_2023.
For example on pages 86-91 of the paper there's plots for all-cause mortality and weekly number of new vaccines in Peru by age group. The spike in excess deaths in early 2021 occurs around the same time in all age groups, even though older age groups got vaccinated much earlier than younger age groups: https://i.ibb.co/mqKg45q/rancourt-peru-age-groups.gif.
... let's do the opposite, can you show me proof that the vaccine had some benefit instead of killing people and money laundering? You can name any improvement after vaccine introduction in anything health, muscle, fitness, strength, vision, life expectancy, super powers, anything.
Out of the southern-hemisphere countries in Rancourt's new paper, countries with a lower percentage of vaccinated population in 2021 tended to have higher excess mortality in 2021: https://i.ibb.co/DQW0Krz/rancourt-southern-xy.png. Out of the four Asian countries, Singapore had both the highest vaccinated percent and the lowest excess mortality but Philippines had both the lowest vaccinated percent and highest excess mortality. And in South America the two countries with the highest vaccinated percent were Uruguay and Chile, but they were also the two countries with the lowest excess mortality.
You didn't answer my question. Is it possible that you are automated answering machine?
You asked me to give an example of where the vaccines had an improvement to factors such as life expectancy, but don't you think it's an improvement in life expectancy if you have less people dying? (I don't necessarily think so because it might be better to have lower life expectancy or to have more people dying.)
But anyway, in the northern hemisphere, there was also lower excess mortality in 2021 in countries with a higher average percentage of vaccinated people: https://i.ibb.co/y457r4R/owid-2021-vax-pct-vs-excess-mortality-countries.png. For example out of North and Central American countries with population above 5 million that were not missing data at OWID, Canada was the country with the highest percentage of vaccinated people but it was also the country with the lowest excess mortality.
"It is absurd to include these years (20, 21, 22) in baseline for future excess mortality studies." Yes, let's consider VAERS, the alarm bell of which is finetuned to compare to the past performance of all vaxes. All vaxes now on = corona injectables, the rest do not show up after this catastrophe.
But does it mean anything? the bell rang like 500 times, but they continued sleeping...
JR
Why is the performance of other vaccines relevant? Don't we judge the performance of a medical intervention by its own risks and benefits?
From the subheader:
> it is apparent that the "vaccine" epoch is worse than the virus.
On your first graph on this page, I'm curious why you included 2020 in the graph. The virus wasn't confirmed to be a new virus by 2 labs until Jan 2020. The US vaccine didn't roll out until December 2020, and at that point, it was in very limited amounts. Is 2020 your control year to compare to 2021?
"Safe and effective"
.
The Covid Fallen
And Those That Continue To Die
Every Day
Weren't Prepared For This War.
Who Among You Expected Them To Be ?
And Who Still Does ?
It Is A Serious Question.
And If You Can't Get Past That.
You Are Not Prepared Either.
.
Interesting.
Just a thought - is it possible to "prove" the validity of the method by referencing earlier, non-C19 years? For example - could the method prove to accurately predict the outcomes by birth year for the calendar years - plucking a number out of the air - 2012 or 2004?
forgive me if that is (obviously) implicit in the maths of the method - but I have these thoughts that may not be "good"!
All the best
With the historic data, it would be straightforward enough.
"When adding data for 2020 to 2002 (Figure 6), it is most apparent how far off expectation the new series become."
Is this supposed to say 2002 or is it a typo?
Typo, thanks. Will correct to 2022.