The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) acknowledges that excess deaths in 2021 are higher than previous years (including 2020) but says it’s not possible to determine exactly why1.

In amongst a few potential explanations, there is no mention whatsoever of the largest medical intervention in human history with an experimental treatment. With that kind of blinkered vision, it’s not surprising that they can’t think what the cause might be…

As regards the additional increase in death figures, several causes are possible. COVID-19 deaths not identified or the displacement of deaths within the year caused by the fact that the usual flu wave did not occur at the beginning of the year may play a role here (mortality displacement). It is also possible that the consequences of postponing operations and preventive examinations become visible here. It is however currently not possible to quantify the contribution of individual effects.

I’ve had a look for them and I think I might be able to assist.

Excess deaths in the over 65s in Germany between March and December in 2021 are 40% higher than the same period in 2020 “despite” 87% of the population being vaccinated and 59% having had their boosters (Figure 1).

Although there also appears to be some visible correlation between the shapes of the vaccination curves and the excess deaths curves, there are similar excess death patterns in 2020 so these could be spurious (Figure 2).

Excess deaths in the under 65s in Germany between March and December in 2021 are 140% higher than the same period in 2020 “despite” 57% of the population being vaccinated and 27% having had their boosters (Figure 3).

The visible correlations between vaccination rates and excess deaths are more apparent in this age group and there are no such patterns in 2020.

Compared to reported COVID deaths, the excess in spring 2020 matches exactly. When COVID returns in autumn 2020, there is some slight excess that looks like it is not due to COVID followed by a sharp drop off in excess deaths on 10-Jan-21 which is not matched by COVID deaths (Figure 5).

This mismatch is likely to be due to the fact that the excess death came earlier than seasonal norms (more detail on that in Part II) as opposed to some kind of effective intervention that reduced non-COVID mortality.

Rather worryingly, the excess death between June and October 2021 is not associated with COVID. I say “worryingly”, not because I am myopically focused on COVID uber alles but because it is an indication that interventions are causing increased mortality, i.e. the cure rather than the disease. This excess continues when COVID makes an early season return through to the end of the year.

In Part II, I will take a more detailed look at the individual state level for each age cohort.

1

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/01/PE22_014_126.html;jsessionid=DBEEF3D1FC73ADEAEF72332E3FE0785F.live731

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