Probable causal association between Australia's new regime of high all-cause mortality and its COVID-19 vaccine rollout

Preprint from Denis G Rancourt, Marine Baudin and Jérémie Mercier

Probable causal association between Australia's new regime of high all-cause mortality and its COVID-19 vaccine rollout

Denis G Rancourt, Marine Baudin and Jérémie Mercier

Abstract

All-cause mortality by week in Australia shows that there was no detectable excess mortality 13 months into the declared pandemic, followed by a step-wise increase in mortality in mid-April 2021, synchronous with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine prioritizing elderly, disabled and aboriginal residents.

The excess mortality in the vaccination period (mid-April 2021 through August 2022; 14% larger all-cause mortality than in recent pre-vaccination periods of same time duration; 62 million administered vaccine doses) was 31±1 thousand deaths, which is more than twice the deaths registered as from or with COVID-19.

In addition, a sharp peak in all-cause mortality (mid-January to mid-February 2022; 2,600 deaths) is synchronous with the rapid rollout of the booster (9.4 million booster doses, same time period), and is not due to a climatic heatwave.

Excess mortality in Australia is causally associated with the COVID-19 vaccine. The corresponding vaccine injection fatality ratio (vIFR) is approximately 0.05%.

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Highlights

1. There is a clear temporal association between the new regime of heightened all-cause mortality and the vaccine rollout, whereas Australia did not have detectable excess mortality up to the start of the rollout, during 13 months of a pandemic that was declared by the WHO on 11 March 2020.

2. The excess mortality in the vaccination period (mid-April 2021 through August 2022)for Australia (all ages) is 31,000 (±1,000) deaths (Figure 1A), which is more than twice the total number of deaths registered as being from or with COVID-19 (14,014 deaths, 1 January 2020 through week ending 29 August 2022.
   
   [Note that the percentage of total COVID-19-assigned deaths that are “with COVID-19”(rather than “from COVID-19”) varies between approximately 10 % and 30 %. In fact, 95.4 % of deaths “from COVID-19” in Australian death certificates had non-COVID-19 “causal sequences of events” and/or “pre-existing chronic conditions”.]
   

3. The mean vIFR in the vaccination period (mid-April 2021 through August 2022) for Australia, therefore, would be:
   
   31 K deaths / 62 M vaccine doses = 0.05%
   

4. There is a prominent peak in all-cause mortality from mid-January to mid-February 2022, having a full duration of seven weeks, which is synchronous with a large burst in COVID-19 vaccine dose delivery. The said large burst in vaccine dose delivery was the rollout of the booster (3rd doses) in Australia, with the booster delivery surge generally leading the mortality surge by approximately 1 week, representing strong evidence for a causal relation.

5. The said prominent peak in all-cause mortality from mid-January to mid-February 2022 has an integrated excess mortality in its 7-week duration, relative to its baseline, of approximately 2,600 deaths, compared to approximately 9.4 million booster doses delivered over the duration of the mortality peak. This corresponds to a calculated vIFR for the specific mortality peak:
   
   2.6 K deaths / 9.4 M vaccine doses = 0.03%
   

6. The impact of the rollout would be sudden because Australia prioritized elderly, disabled and aboriginal residents.

7. The step-wise increase in all-cause mortality, into the regime of excess all-cause mortality (mid-April 2021 through August 2022) occurs simultaneously in mid-April 2021 across all of Australia, in the eight states, rather than showing any distribution of starting times, which would be compatible with a spreading infectious disease seeding different regions at different times and spreading at different rates depending on regional differences of social and health conditions.

8. The VAERS data of the USA unambiguously shows excess all-cause deaths immediately following injections with each of the three types of COVID-19 vaccines used in the USA, with a prominent peak within 5 days of injection and an exponentially decaying excess mortality extending 2 months following injection.

9. The integrated mortality by number of injections following injection (injection toxicity or vIFR) increases exponentially with age, as does the batch to batch variability of toxic effect. The latter observations of exponential increases with age mean that the injections represent fatal challenges in proportion to frailty of the subject

10. Detailed histopathological and immunohistochemical autopsy studies have demonstrated that the COVID-19 vaccines are causes of death, both in otherwise healthy subjects and in elderly subjects with comorbidities.

11. The Australian Government interprets both test results (cases) and the mortality as occurring in four “waves”. the Australian Government’s assignation of COVID-19 waves for Australia is merely a naming exercise of reported test results (case statistics), coupled to sparse and unreliable genomic measurements. We have not found any study establishing a scientific basis for the Australian Government’s assignation of these waves. Furthermore, the assignation is irreconcilable with:

    1. the absence of detected excess mortality in March-May 2020;

    2. the absence of detected excess mortality in Australia and in Victoria in the period June-November 2020

    3. a Delta-variant wave (July-December 2021) that would have missed both the mid-April 2021 step-wise surge in excess all-cause mortality and the 7-week-duration mid-January to mid-February 2022 peak in excess all-cause mortality, and

    4. an Omicron-variant wave (2022) that would have caused two distinct and prominent features in excess all-cause mortality, namely the mid-January to mid-February 2022 7-week-duration peak and the large surge that followed starting in May 2022.

12. A similar synchronicity between vaccine dose delivery and excess all-cause mortality is observed in connection with the so-called “vaccine equity” campaigns in the USA. An anomalous fall-2021 peak was interpreted as being caused by the vaccines, and is prominent in the 25-64 years age group in 21 states of the USA, leading to the conclusion that significant (detectable by all-cause mortality) vaccine-induced mortality occurred primarily among fragile groups, characterized by high degrees of poverty, disability, obesity, diabetes, and high medication rates. The vaccine injection was seen as an additional challenge, often accelerating and causing death in residents with comorbidities, producing a vIFR of approximately 1%.

13. Another example of probable causal synchronicity between a rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout prioritizing elderly, frail and disabled residents and large excess all-cause mortality is that of India. In that case, the early rollout of the vaccine in April-July 2021 was devastating, causing the deaths of approximately 3.7 million residents, on administering approximately 350 million doses of the vaccine (in a population of 1.39 billion). This corresponds to an effective vIFR (per-dose toxicity) of approximately 1%.

14. Both India and Australia had virtually no detectable excess all-cause mortality after a pandemic was declared by the WHO, until their respective COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, which makes the synchronicity association relatively easy to assign.

15. Two more examples of synchronicity between a rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout prioritizing elderly and vulnerable residents and large excess all-cause mortality occur for Michigan, USA and Ontario, Canada. The COVID-19 vIFR in the main rollout of the vaccine in Michigan is comparable in value to that for the vaccination period for Australia (0.05%).

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Conclusion

The declared pandemic would have had to entirely spare Australia any detectable deaths for more than a year, while it raged in many other places around the world, before it showed any virulence, suddenly in mid-April 2021, when vaccines coincidentally were being rolled out to the elderly and most vulnerable.

In addition, a sharp peak in all-cause mortality (mid-January to mid-February 2022) would be synchronous with the rapid deployment of the vaccine booster (3rd doses) purely by coincidence, without any explanation (plausible or not) being provided.

On the contrary, our analysis leads us to conclude that the excess mortality in the vaccination period (31±1 thousand deaths, mid-April 2021 through August 2022; 14 % larger all-cause mortality than in recent pre-vaccination periods of same time duration; 62 million administered vaccine doses), which is more than twice the deaths registered as from or with COVID-19, and the sharp peak in all-cause mortality (mid-January to mid-February 2022; 2,600 deaths), which is synchronous with the rapid rollout of the booster (9.4 million booster doses, same time period) are causally associated with the COVID-19 vaccine.

The corresponding vaccine injection fatality ratio (vIFR) is approximately 0.05 %.

Of course, this is diametrically opposite to the proposal that the COVID-19 vaccine would have saved any lives; a proposal that is not substantiated by extensive study of all-cause mortality data.

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Probable causal association between Australia's new regime of high all-cause mortality and its COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366445769_Probable_causal_association_between_Australia%27s_new_regime_of_high_all-cause_mortality_and_its_COVID-19_vaccine_rollout

[accessed Jan 02 2023].