The three most plausible reasons for all the excess deaths in England during the COVID era.
Analysis of cumulative excess mortality for over 60s in England given the Occam's razor treatment.
There is currently much report about the recent extraordinary excess deaths in England (not in the mainstream media, obviously).
However, there are thousands of deaths missing from the younger age groups which are currently being reviewed by the coroner so I am going to focus on the over 60s that are generally not subject to the same issues of registration delay1.
Without question, the best metric I have discovered for visualising excess mortality is the cumulative excess deaths time series which I use as evidence for this report2.
Reason #1 - disruption to health and social welfare systems (spring 2020).
Over 48,000 60+ year olds in England died “unexpectedly” between 20-Mar-20 and 22-Jun-20. Many will still believe that these deaths were due to the disease known as COVID.
However, it is widely accepted that the virus that causes COVID was circulating as early as October 2019. If COVID was responsible for the excess mortality in England that is evident since the start of Dec-19 then it is on its way out by 19-Jan-20, having only accounted for around 5,000 more deaths than usual.
The real reason for the sudden spike in deaths on 20-Mar-20 is due to the voluntary and involuntary withdrawal of health and social support systems.
On 16-Mar-20, the UK Prime Minister told people to stop living their ordinary lives which included much healthy social interaction and reliance on the healthcare system:
Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel.
We need people to start working from home where they possibly can. And you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues.
It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111.
Now, this advice about avoiding all unnecessary social contact, is particularly important for people over 70, for pregnant women and for those with some health conditions.
This alone would inevitably cause the demise of those who relied on the basic support of societal health and welfare. And, this is exactly what happened just a few days later - many people died.
At that same time, healthcare provision was involuntarily withdrawn from the English population. We can depict this using quarterly bed occupancy of NHS England:
The basic provision of healthcare was severely disrupted for the period of excess death in spring 2020. It is no coincidence that this resulted in significant increases in deaths. Otherwise, why do we spend so much money on social healthcare?
No business in the world could weather an acute withdrawal of 40 percent of its infrastructure, let alone a creaky tanker like the NHS.
Reason #2 - the mRNA experiment (winter 2021).
By autumn 2020 and the advent of the new “mortality season”, the elderly in England are dying slightly more than usual. This is no surprise as the negative impact of disruption to health and social welfare systems will continue to be felt, in addition to the adverse health effects of prolonged mask wearing in the community. 15,000 more than expected died.
However, there is a sharp inflection in excess deaths on 03-Jan-21 that lasts until 24-Feb-21, accounting for just over 31,000 more deaths than usual.
This period of excess deaths correlates exactly with the mass administration of an experimental medical technology - the COVID mRNA “vaccine”. There is no other more plausible explanation for this unexpected spike in deaths.
Again, it is well established that vaccines in general and this one in particular weaken the immune system for a certain period. Doing this in the midst of a circulating virus inevitably led to more deaths than otherwise would have occurred.
By the time this “vaccine” is alleged to be effective in reducing mortality, i.e. two weeks after the second dose campaign which does not start in earnest until 28-Feb-21, this period of excess mortality is already well and truly expired. There is no evidence to support the premise that the intervention saved any lives, simply because there were no deaths during that period to be averted.
Reason #3 - the ongoing result of prior interventions manifesting in poorer health demographics.
Since 30-Jun-21, there has been a steady increase in excess mortality, over and above the prevailing upward trend that existed prior to COVID that I have taken into account.
Not being associated with any particular trigger that causes a spike followed by some amount of deficit, this persistent rise in excess mortality must be attributable to a prevailing change in the longevity quality of this population cohort.
Up to the end of July which is the extent that the data provided by the ONS covered, a further almost 38,000 unexpected deaths have occurred.
Applying the principle of Occam’s razor3, the actions of the UK government that manifested in severe disruptions to the provision of health and welfare systems, as well as the coerced participation in a medical experiment, have resulted in the untimely deaths of 132,000 people over the age of 60 in England between 20-Mar-20 and 31-Jul-22, a period of just over two years and three months.
Over 32,000 of those deaths were “pulled forward” within the timeframe of the analysis, leaving just under 100,000 still outstanding.
It goes without saying that I am using deaths by date of occurrence though. To use the registration date would be absurd (even though that’s what the ONS does).
I evaluated excess deaths by sex independently then combined the results.
With competing theories or explanations, the simpler one, for example a model with fewer parameters, is to be preferred.