Synchronicity of Deaths in the Pandemic

Analysing the simultaneous occurrence of deaths

In preparation for the upcoming inquiry, CH has been asked to appear in person and has already submitted written evidence - in preparation, we’ll be looking at a host of issues that might come up.

Something has bothered us for quite some time - the unprecedented rise in deaths in the spring of 2020.  To look at the issue, we used the ONS registered data for 2020 that reports monthly deaths by county.

Notice anything?

Synchronicity is the simultaneous occurrence of events which may or may not be related but have a connection. By the end of 2020, deaths were asynchronous, but in April, all counties in England had synchronous rises.

To further look at the data in depth, we analysed NHS England’s daily hospital data on deaths for 2020. This shows a synchronous wave of deaths starting in March and peaking on the 8 of April across all seven regions. Contrast this with the end of 2020 when The North West, North East and Midlands peaked earlier than London and the South East.