All-cause Mortality by Vaccination Status from the Netherlands
... shows likely no vaccine efficacy, possible harm!
Deaths per 100k population by vaccination status shows an initial spike for the vaccinated during the vaccination rollout, and consistently higher mortality levels.
The initial peak may be related to confounding as more elderly/frail were prioritized, to reporting artifact (Fenton et al.), or vaccine harm. Only focusing on the mid 2021 data, where the lines move in tandem, we still see a diverging of rates after the late 2021 winter peak.
The Dutch statistics office has posted deaths by vaccination status, which allows adding together deaths from here in sections 3.3.2, 3.3.4, 3.3.6, and 3.3.8 (which were split between COVID and non-COVID deaths and whether people were in long-term care or not). A fellow covid analyst has made the data available via CSV!
Here adjusted for the levels during extremely low COVID-19 prevalence in Summer of 2021, we can possibly see, no efficacy and a drop for unvaccinated and slight increase for vaccinated, possibly even indicating negative efficacy?
This 13 week summer timeframe was used to adjust rates. Extremely low COVID-19 death prevalence of 1-2/1M.
This chart shows the absolute deaths by vaccination status and the projected values based on 2010-2019 trend.
This data is not age-adjusted as age-stratified data by vaccination status is currently not available. Other factors such as policies (3G/2G discrimination) may play an additional role.
Dutch All-Cause Age-Standardized Mortality Rate is definitely seeing a signal since 2020.
In summary, it is extremely hard to make any certain conclusions from this data. The initial spike and the higher levels may be safety signals, but could also be explained by confounding. Personally, I think the key part is that we cannot observe any clear efficacy either. Thus, likely given no efficacy, but proven harm, the entire rollout should have never taken place.
Sources & Calculations
https://github.com/MortalityWatch/charts/blob/nzl-foia/covid19/nld/deaths_vaxx.r
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&Interval=Weekly&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~NLD&Metric=Confirmed+deaths
https://mortality.watch/?qr=eJyrVkpWsopW8vNxUYrVUUouUbJSqkxNLMqpVNJRSkkD8owMDEyB7DIlK6NaABmFC%2BA%3D