An analytical approach to contextualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 era with respect to prior, broadly accepted fundamentals of virology, population health, govt policy, and "vaccines".
From almost the beginning I said that the SARS-CoV-2 strategy was flawed, not because it was counter-intuitive in the face of previous pandemic experience and recommendations, but because it was wrongly directed. What was important was not to stop the virus spreading (because, as you have pointed out, most people don't get very sick) but to correctly treat those who do get sick. I outlined the correct treatment modalities in May 2020; I was not listened to, and a completely unnecessary trial (the RECOVERY trial) was done which proved what was already known. As time has passed the accuracy of outside predictions has become very clear and I fail to understand why so many experts who had the right credentials (I include myself) found their advice disappearing into a black hole. Covid-19 is a clinical entity, so whyits confrontation should be led by statisticians and other people not involved in clinical medicine remains a mystery to me.
Quite true - but would you want a psychiatrist, however brilliant, doing your hip replacement? The meritorious statisticians hereabouts are those who have picked the official narrative apart...
"In reality, the illness [SARS-CoV-2 ==> COVID-19] has to be governed by the laws of physics and biology, instead of the politics, randomness, and wishful thinking that seems to prevail our discussion. " - a perfect summary of the whole situation.
It’s simple. When harvest season comes, it’s because we offered a goat sacrifice. . When disease incidence follows a bell curve it’s due to an NPI, say the witch doctors in public health.
I'm sitting in the corner with the dunce cap on my head. As often as so many have patiently tried to explain technical language, I fail to grasp the significance.
That said, that the area under the mRNA curve was significantly greater than the area under the Covid curve immediately jumped out at me... if all else is in order (and I don't doubt that, feeble as my understanding of it may be) surely the alleged cure was worse than the disease across the board. Well done, Mr. Smalley and everyone else who contributed. A scaled down part of this was all it took to convince me.
That said, who are we trying to convince? Monumental effort to convince the most learned and most expert among us, but an effective graphic is worth far more than a thousand words to the rest of us, as well as smaller bit of logic.
We need to bring the broader population to our cause. Massive effort here, and kudos to all who contributed... But we could do with a bit of marketing savvy.
Aug 27, 2022·edited Aug 27, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley
Good stuff as always.
The simple version of what happened in the US is that in what we can call Phase One there was a concentrated period of a mass death spike (limited to certain states) caused by medical/adminstrative malfeasance- democide. This impacted mainly the elderly and those already in very poor health.
One piece of the puzzle is that "Covid"- which is a pure invention- became the de facto and only "allowed" diagnosis in many places and the "Covid protocols" became the only treatments allowed. This killed large numbers of people. One illustration of how this worked was with bacterial pneumonia (now called "Covid") which was no longer being treated with antibiotics- we saw antibiotic prescriptions plummet during this time in the US.
During Phase Two of this mass death event it was not only the continued iatrogenic murder but the impacts of lockdowns. The mortality stats on what happens with severe economic down turns are well documented.
During Phase Three of this mass death event- which we are currently in- the continued impacts of the lockdowns continue to contribute to excess mortality and we now have the widespread introduction of a very toxic (and lethal to some) biologic which is vaporizing already compromised immune systems and causing microcoagulation.
Very interesting read, Joel. I've followed your work since my first 'something is not right here' moment in early 2020 and in my opinion your analyses have stood the test of time.
Well, I think I got the gist of that. If we had done absolutely nothing other than what is normally done for winter infections, less people would have died. The people who were going to catch and die from a cold or flu virus still did albeit maybe a few months early. The people who weren't at any particular risk from dying of a cold but still managed to die during the "pandemic" died from the crazy efforts to stop people dying from a cold. Then everyone queued up to get some untested medication injected into their bodies to stop them getting the cold that wasn't going to kill them and had long ago become endemic. And that started killing them.
Is that about right?
(I'm the idiot who can't do maths and graphs and statistics!)
When do people start getting arrested for crimes against humanity or genocide or something?
Pretty much. Although, I think there is also a strong case that with no intervention, perhaps many of those who died a few months early might have survived those months too.
Word perfect Joe Smalley and the graphs were picture perfect. Even I can understand all of it.
Well well done. Superb actually.
And heartbreakingly sad.
And you also confirm what my intuition told me....the jabs turned health care workers into asymptomatic transmitters first, and then the rest of the population later, and extended the entire Covid nightmare.
But what I really appreciate is your demonstrating that the MNRA shots were deadly.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
I'd love to see any response to this by the Powers that Be.
I know. But they should be made to answer. I only wish you could for same for US...I'm sure it would prove the same. Although our governers would ignore it as well. This needs to be on front pages of all the newspapers 8n every Western democracy.
It's great irony that you are using numbers and graphs to expose malfeasance, just as they used them to overwhelm and convince us of the existence of an emergency. You do amazing work, thank you!
Your articles are regularly posted there (not just by me). The above link describes excess deaths taking it back to 2016, and I believe they are in line with your conclusions. Google translate may be required. Comparing multiple countries with different approaches (especially vaccination percentages) could possibly help with gathering evidence.
You have confirmed my sixth-sense/intuition of the last almost 3 years using advanced statistical analysis that is beyond, not only myself, but every politician and health bureaucrat!
I found your logical narrative easy to follow, though.
There are so many "dumbfounding" variables in analysing the data, not least people are not considered "vaccinated" until 14 days AFTER injection (and in NZ, people are not vaccinated until after the second dose!), that detailed analysis, not just of mortality (excess or otherwise) from lockdown measures but also morbidities - either existing untreated ones or ones caused by the injections.
My initial analysis starts with the vague ball-park of (erroneously defined) covid19 cases and deaths with covid19 present.
prior to injections that started being rolled out on 10 december 2020 in the US, globally, there were 70 million "cases" and 1.7 million deaths with ovid19 present. 20 months and 12.5 billion administered doses later, there have been 605 million "cases and 6.5 million deaths with covid19 present.
the clinical trial claims from pfizer and moderna were for a 90% reduction in cases from a population infection rate of 4%, down to 0.3% or so.
the "efficacy" claim has an implication for the path of cases and deaths over the last 20 months. did we really administer 12.5 billion doses to lower cases from 4% to 0.3%??? would cases have been around 4% higher - 24 million extra - had doses not been administered.
no explanation from the WHO or any national health regulator.
for the record, it is my view that (based on EU+US adverse reporting systems, an under-reporting factor of 40 for them, the one eighth share that the EU (900 million doses) +US (600 million doses) have of the 12.5 billion global doses), there have been 20 million deaths from injections and 1.7 billion injuries that will develop into (extremely expensive to treat) diseases/conditions/morbidities.
It may be too hard to quantify either one, the former because it is ill-defined (yet real to some extent) and the latter because it is still politically incorrect to discuss on mainstream media and mainstream social media. See what happened to Dr. John Campbell on Youtube recently, and his chastened response that the vaccine mandaters and mandatrices demanded.
I'm ambivalent about Long COVID. I've seen compelling evidence from multiple independent sources that it is a mental illness more than a physical one. Besides, the extent to which it might be physical does not result in death! What is long COVID? Adverse reaction to the vaccine can be short, medium or long term, it's still an AE. And this time, CAN result in death.
From almost the beginning I said that the SARS-CoV-2 strategy was flawed, not because it was counter-intuitive in the face of previous pandemic experience and recommendations, but because it was wrongly directed. What was important was not to stop the virus spreading (because, as you have pointed out, most people don't get very sick) but to correctly treat those who do get sick. I outlined the correct treatment modalities in May 2020; I was not listened to, and a completely unnecessary trial (the RECOVERY trial) was done which proved what was already known. As time has passed the accuracy of outside predictions has become very clear and I fail to understand why so many experts who had the right credentials (I include myself) found their advice disappearing into a black hole. Covid-19 is a clinical entity, so whyits confrontation should be led by statisticians and other people not involved in clinical medicine remains a mystery to me.
Hey, not all statisticians are without merit in this situation!
Quite true - but would you want a psychiatrist, however brilliant, doing your hip replacement? The meritorious statisticians hereabouts are those who have picked the official narrative apart...
"In reality, the illness [SARS-CoV-2 ==> COVID-19] has to be governed by the laws of physics and biology, instead of the politics, randomness, and wishful thinking that seems to prevail our discussion. " - a perfect summary of the whole situation.
Kudos to Dr Stupak!
It’s simple. When harvest season comes, it’s because we offered a goat sacrifice. . When disease incidence follows a bell curve it’s due to an NPI, say the witch doctors in public health.
Ask not for whom the bell curve tolls, it Gompertzs for thee.
I'm sitting in the corner with the dunce cap on my head. As often as so many have patiently tried to explain technical language, I fail to grasp the significance.
That said, that the area under the mRNA curve was significantly greater than the area under the Covid curve immediately jumped out at me... if all else is in order (and I don't doubt that, feeble as my understanding of it may be) surely the alleged cure was worse than the disease across the board. Well done, Mr. Smalley and everyone else who contributed. A scaled down part of this was all it took to convince me.
That said, who are we trying to convince? Monumental effort to convince the most learned and most expert among us, but an effective graphic is worth far more than a thousand words to the rest of us, as well as smaller bit of logic.
We need to bring the broader population to our cause. Massive effort here, and kudos to all who contributed... But we could do with a bit of marketing savvy.
We continue to amass the evidence until such time as it is required. That time will come and we will be ready.
Good stuff as always.
The simple version of what happened in the US is that in what we can call Phase One there was a concentrated period of a mass death spike (limited to certain states) caused by medical/adminstrative malfeasance- democide. This impacted mainly the elderly and those already in very poor health.
One piece of the puzzle is that "Covid"- which is a pure invention- became the de facto and only "allowed" diagnosis in many places and the "Covid protocols" became the only treatments allowed. This killed large numbers of people. One illustration of how this worked was with bacterial pneumonia (now called "Covid") which was no longer being treated with antibiotics- we saw antibiotic prescriptions plummet during this time in the US.
During Phase Two of this mass death event it was not only the continued iatrogenic murder but the impacts of lockdowns. The mortality stats on what happens with severe economic down turns are well documented.
During Phase Three of this mass death event- which we are currently in- the continued impacts of the lockdowns continue to contribute to excess mortality and we now have the widespread introduction of a very toxic (and lethal to some) biologic which is vaporizing already compromised immune systems and causing microcoagulation.
That's my quick and cursory take on things.
It is quickly becoming the dominate narrative. And for good reason.
Very interesting read, Joel. I've followed your work since my first 'something is not right here' moment in early 2020 and in my opinion your analyses have stood the test of time.
Well, I think I got the gist of that. If we had done absolutely nothing other than what is normally done for winter infections, less people would have died. The people who were going to catch and die from a cold or flu virus still did albeit maybe a few months early. The people who weren't at any particular risk from dying of a cold but still managed to die during the "pandemic" died from the crazy efforts to stop people dying from a cold. Then everyone queued up to get some untested medication injected into their bodies to stop them getting the cold that wasn't going to kill them and had long ago become endemic. And that started killing them.
Is that about right?
(I'm the idiot who can't do maths and graphs and statistics!)
When do people start getting arrested for crimes against humanity or genocide or something?
Pretty much. Although, I think there is also a strong case that with no intervention, perhaps many of those who died a few months early might have survived those months too.
Word perfect Joe Smalley and the graphs were picture perfect. Even I can understand all of it.
Well well done. Superb actually.
And heartbreakingly sad.
And you also confirm what my intuition told me....the jabs turned health care workers into asymptomatic transmitters first, and then the rest of the population later, and extended the entire Covid nightmare.
But what I really appreciate is your demonstrating that the MNRA shots were deadly.
Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
I'd love to see any response to this by the Powers that Be.
Don't hold your breath! I only name names for the record not because I expect a response. Not even bothered if they never see it.
I know. But they should be made to answer. I only wish you could for same for US...I'm sure it would prove the same. Although our governers would ignore it as well. This needs to be on front pages of all the newspapers 8n every Western democracy.
It's great irony that you are using numbers and graphs to expose malfeasance, just as they used them to overwhelm and convince us of the existence of an emergency. You do amazing work, thank you!
Except my numbers are actual data, not the product of a garbage model or a fraudulent test!
Speaking of fraudulent tests, how on earth did the PCR test make it past the FDA and scientific scrutiny?
Great work Joel, another excellent analysis!
To my knowledge, you are the first to point out the disproportionate impact of the shots on men.
Kudos.
Instead of DIE standing for Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity, perhaps it stands for Diktats, Injections, and Extinction.
Another excellent article. Thanks for keeping us more or less sane.
The Netherlands has a similar or worse regime. We had a ludicrous lockdown in December 2021. Inspired by the UK plans who abandoned that plan.
I am supporting below website that is maintained by a team of dedicated people who spend a lot of time on analysis:
https://www.maurice.nl/2022/08/27/oversterfte-breekt-alle-records/
Your articles are regularly posted there (not just by me). The above link describes excess deaths taking it back to 2016, and I believe they are in line with your conclusions. Google translate may be required. Comparing multiple countries with different approaches (especially vaccination percentages) could possibly help with gathering evidence.
That's excellent. Thanks for sharing!
Love your analysis. It's superb, thank you.
Boris Johnson always reminded me of Harry Dunne from the movie, "Dumb and Dumber."
Brilliant! My hat is off to you!
You have confirmed my sixth-sense/intuition of the last almost 3 years using advanced statistical analysis that is beyond, not only myself, but every politician and health bureaucrat!
I found your logical narrative easy to follow, though.
There are so many "dumbfounding" variables in analysing the data, not least people are not considered "vaccinated" until 14 days AFTER injection (and in NZ, people are not vaccinated until after the second dose!), that detailed analysis, not just of mortality (excess or otherwise) from lockdown measures but also morbidities - either existing untreated ones or ones caused by the injections.
My initial analysis starts with the vague ball-park of (erroneously defined) covid19 cases and deaths with covid19 present.
prior to injections that started being rolled out on 10 december 2020 in the US, globally, there were 70 million "cases" and 1.7 million deaths with ovid19 present. 20 months and 12.5 billion administered doses later, there have been 605 million "cases and 6.5 million deaths with covid19 present.
the clinical trial claims from pfizer and moderna were for a 90% reduction in cases from a population infection rate of 4%, down to 0.3% or so.
the "efficacy" claim has an implication for the path of cases and deaths over the last 20 months. did we really administer 12.5 billion doses to lower cases from 4% to 0.3%??? would cases have been around 4% higher - 24 million extra - had doses not been administered.
no explanation from the WHO or any national health regulator.
for the record, it is my view that (based on EU+US adverse reporting systems, an under-reporting factor of 40 for them, the one eighth share that the EU (900 million doses) +US (600 million doses) have of the 12.5 billion global doses), there have been 20 million deaths from injections and 1.7 billion injuries that will develop into (extremely expensive to treat) diseases/conditions/morbidities.
anyways!
bravo sir!
onwards!
The breakdown by sex is very interesting. I noticed a similar asymmetry for Germany:
https://cm27874.substack.com/p/killallmenbutslowly
Maybe it's like this in other countries as well?
What about long Covid and long Vaccine?
It may be too hard to quantify either one, the former because it is ill-defined (yet real to some extent) and the latter because it is still politically incorrect to discuss on mainstream media and mainstream social media. See what happened to Dr. John Campbell on Youtube recently, and his chastened response that the vaccine mandaters and mandatrices demanded.
I'm ambivalent about Long COVID. I've seen compelling evidence from multiple independent sources that it is a mental illness more than a physical one. Besides, the extent to which it might be physical does not result in death! What is long COVID? Adverse reaction to the vaccine can be short, medium or long term, it's still an AE. And this time, CAN result in death.