Thank you, Duchess! I'm nowhere near the smartest data analyst but I find that sometimes makes it easier to express data insights in a way that hopefully non data-types will more readily understand.
Big time kudos and thanks from a mathematically challenged, non-data type who treasures the patient step by step explanations and most of all the color coded charts that always translate the computations into a picture that makes sense. You rock!! <3
Dear Joel, to me, it is akin to witchcraft. But the best thing is, you make it understandable.
Now, I once upon a time used to be able to calculate the value of a warrant, but boot strap a derivative? Never. I had to take Statistics TWICE. And though I loved and got an A plus in quant methods, I couldn't tell you what the P value is supposed to be anymore...I have to look it up every damn time. Thank you so much for doing this...I know that when you pull stats together, we can RELY on them.
you might want to write a book called Stats for Dummies. I would buy it because while I am not stupid, I am poor at Math and have always regretted that. Especially now! Keep up the good work.
Sounds perfect! I could be your editor. I mean it...would do it for very little or nothing. It's kind of like an important pubic service. Everyone needs to be able to understand what our overlords are cooking up for us, right? And since they all use stats to do it with...could be a bestseller! With cute ironic comics thrown in...someone like Geoff Olsen, also on this site. Yep, I can see it!
Remember that many COVID deaths were fake. The person died of one thing, but their death certificate said they died of COVID. I have evidence of that. But their fake deaths can be used against them, or they have to admit the deaths were faked. Start here:
1252+ examples of Co.vid fraud with source links. Suspicious things and outright fraud. People who don't even show up for a test still get a positive test, a lab is double reporting positive lab tests. People die from cancer or something else but it's still counted as a coronavirus death, death certificates are changed to COVID after being filled out to inflate the numbers. Fruit and goat also test positive, but the test does not work on them. Hospitals get paid $77,000 for each Covid patient admitted so politicians can shift the blame to hospitals. The inventor of the PCR test said it is not to be used to diagnose whether a person has a disease. HTML: http://wordsalad.info/tag-coronavirusfraud.html
Amazing analysis. Just a suggestion, perhaps begin or end with a summary of the analysis so folks like me who get lost while trying to follow your academic trajectory(ies) can still get the gist.
Wow!…. very insightful. If you’d been my professor many years ago, I’d probably have continued in math/statistics which I’ve now learned can unearth hidden mysteries. Thank you Joel!
Impressive work! I lurched towards beta distributions and option vol surfaces for some reason, before I lurched back!
Just out of interest, and not wishing to distract you from the quality of your work, what are your thoughts on the impact on your work of the classification of covid19 deaths as "unvaccinated" if they occurred within 14 days of injection?
I found this article well above my understanding. I'm hopeless with graphs, just need a simple numbers explanation, but maybe that is not possible. I do appreciate the hours of work you have put into it though. No doubt it will be understood by most people smarter than I am.
What has happened in the UK on Aug. 13 - no more Covid deaths, zero, since that date, in ourworldindata.org. My hunch is, they pulled the plug on the last semblance of impartiality and just stopped reporting inconvenient data altogether?
I calculate 1662 excess deaths for the week ending 5/8/2022. This isn't over, and the present trend began around the end of April, with distortions around various holidays.
I've H1N1 on my to do list in regard to the disappearance of influenza in 2020. Getting data about that could be a problem.
And thanks for the Gompertz equation. Very very cool!
In early to mid 2020 a correlation between the WHO's European data for influenza vaccination of over 65's and Covid-19 deaths was noted.
I haven't figured this out yet, but a worst case outcome would be that current excess mortality is understated because pre-pandemic over-65 mortality was higher due to influenza vaccinations.
I do not think that there is much strength in that hypothesis, but it is something else to factor in.
Hi Joel, loving your substack content, but I have a query about why you called it after the demon Metatron. This blog post on the Lucefarian brotherhood which many high level politicians, including presidents, are members of explains. https://wp.me/pcIqfz-1OW
I thought when I grew up I would find out that people who can do this with numbers are not smarter than the rest of us.....
I am 66, and and even if I live to be 100, I KNOW that people who can do this ARE INDEED SMARTER THAN THE REST OF US.
Joel Smalley, I stand in AWE.
Thank you, Duchess! I'm nowhere near the smartest data analyst but I find that sometimes makes it easier to express data insights in a way that hopefully non data-types will more readily understand.
Big time kudos and thanks from a mathematically challenged, non-data type who treasures the patient step by step explanations and most of all the color coded charts that always translate the computations into a picture that makes sense. You rock!! <3
Dear Joel, to me, it is akin to witchcraft. But the best thing is, you make it understandable.
Now, I once upon a time used to be able to calculate the value of a warrant, but boot strap a derivative? Never. I had to take Statistics TWICE. And though I loved and got an A plus in quant methods, I couldn't tell you what the P value is supposed to be anymore...I have to look it up every damn time. Thank you so much for doing this...I know that when you pull stats together, we can RELY on them.
Excellent article! Absolutely no idea what any of it meant.
(I was so bad at maths I got thrown out the O Level class and had to do basic arithmetic - not brilliant at that either)
Anyway, I look forward to the main article but don't forget to add Explanations for Idiots to it!
Dear Joel,
you might want to write a book called Stats for Dummies. I would buy it because while I am not stupid, I am poor at Math and have always regretted that. Especially now! Keep up the good work.
One for Mathew Crawford, I think. Or, perhaps a collaboration!
Sounds perfect! I could be your editor. I mean it...would do it for very little or nothing. It's kind of like an important pubic service. Everyone needs to be able to understand what our overlords are cooking up for us, right? And since they all use stats to do it with...could be a bestseller! With cute ironic comics thrown in...someone like Geoff Olsen, also on this site. Yep, I can see it!
Everything I ever wanted to know about Gompertz function ... and more :-)
Remember that many COVID deaths were fake. The person died of one thing, but their death certificate said they died of COVID. I have evidence of that. But their fake deaths can be used against them, or they have to admit the deaths were faked. Start here:
1252+ examples of Co.vid fraud with source links. Suspicious things and outright fraud. People who don't even show up for a test still get a positive test, a lab is double reporting positive lab tests. People die from cancer or something else but it's still counted as a coronavirus death, death certificates are changed to COVID after being filled out to inflate the numbers. Fruit and goat also test positive, but the test does not work on them. Hospitals get paid $77,000 for each Covid patient admitted so politicians can shift the blame to hospitals. The inventor of the PCR test said it is not to be used to diagnose whether a person has a disease. HTML: http://wordsalad.info/tag-coronavirusfraud.html
I will allude to this in the final analysis.
Amazing analysis. Just a suggestion, perhaps begin or end with a summary of the analysis so folks like me who get lost while trying to follow your academic trajectory(ies) can still get the gist.
The global death rate for year of the “pandemic” 2020 was 0.76%. Global death rates for non-pandemic years 2018 and 2019 were…0.76%.
https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/game-over-the-latest-society-of-actuaries
Wow!…. very insightful. If you’d been my professor many years ago, I’d probably have continued in math/statistics which I’ve now learned can unearth hidden mysteries. Thank you Joel!
Joel, you are awesome💕
Your 72-thread/256G beast eats my 24-thread/16G chicken for breakfast...
Impressive work! I lurched towards beta distributions and option vol surfaces for some reason, before I lurched back!
Just out of interest, and not wishing to distract you from the quality of your work, what are your thoughts on the impact on your work of the classification of covid19 deaths as "unvaccinated" if they occurred within 14 days of injection?
https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/21/analysis-by-german-prof-thousands-of-hidden-deaths-daily-may-be-greatest-medical-debacle-in-human-history/
I found this article well above my understanding. I'm hopeless with graphs, just need a simple numbers explanation, but maybe that is not possible. I do appreciate the hours of work you have put into it though. No doubt it will be understood by most people smarter than I am.
Hi, Joel,
What has happened in the UK on Aug. 13 - no more Covid deaths, zero, since that date, in ourworldindata.org. My hunch is, they pulled the plug on the last semblance of impartiality and just stopped reporting inconvenient data altogether?
Awesome, Joel.
A couple of things that may be of interest.
I calculate 1662 excess deaths for the week ending 5/8/2022. This isn't over, and the present trend began around the end of April, with distortions around various holidays.
I've H1N1 on my to do list in regard to the disappearance of influenza in 2020. Getting data about that could be a problem.
And thanks for the Gompertz equation. Very very cool!
An additional thought.
In early to mid 2020 a correlation between the WHO's European data for influenza vaccination of over 65's and Covid-19 deaths was noted.
I haven't figured this out yet, but a worst case outcome would be that current excess mortality is understated because pre-pandemic over-65 mortality was higher due to influenza vaccinations.
I do not think that there is much strength in that hypothesis, but it is something else to factor in.
Hi Joel, loving your substack content, but I have a query about why you called it after the demon Metatron. This blog post on the Lucefarian brotherhood which many high level politicians, including presidents, are members of explains. https://wp.me/pcIqfz-1OW
https://www.ask-angels.com/channeled-messages/archangel-metatron/
Thank you.