30 Comments
Aug 24, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

I thought when I grew up I would find out that people who can do this with numbers are not smarter than the rest of us.....

I am 66, and and even if I live to be 100, I KNOW that people who can do this ARE INDEED SMARTER THAN THE REST OF US.

Joel Smalley, I stand in AWE.

Expand full comment

Excellent article! Absolutely no idea what any of it meant.

(I was so bad at maths I got thrown out the O Level class and had to do basic arithmetic - not brilliant at that either)

Anyway, I look forward to the main article but don't forget to add Explanations for Idiots to it!

Expand full comment

Dear Joel,

you might want to write a book called Stats for Dummies. I would buy it because while I am not stupid, I am poor at Math and have always regretted that. Especially now! Keep up the good work.

Expand full comment

Everything I ever wanted to know about Gompertz function ... and more :-)

Expand full comment

Remember that many COVID deaths were fake. The person died of one thing, but their death certificate said they died of COVID. I have evidence of that. But their fake deaths can be used against them, or they have to admit the deaths were faked. Start here:

1252+ examples of Co.vid fraud with source links. Suspicious things and outright fraud. People who don't even show up for a test still get a positive test, a lab is double reporting positive lab tests. People die from cancer or something else but it's still counted as a coronavirus death, death certificates are changed to COVID after being filled out to inflate the numbers. Fruit and goat also test positive, but the test does not work on them. Hospitals get paid $77,000 for each Covid patient admitted so politicians can shift the blame to hospitals. The inventor of the PCR test said it is not to be used to diagnose whether a person has a disease. HTML: http://wordsalad.info/tag-coronavirusfraud.html

Expand full comment
Aug 24, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Amazing analysis. Just a suggestion, perhaps begin or end with a summary of the analysis so folks like me who get lost while trying to follow your academic trajectory(ies) can still get the gist.

Expand full comment
Aug 25, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

The global death rate for year of the “pandemic” 2020 was 0.76%. Global death rates for non-pandemic years 2018 and 2019 were…0.76%.

https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/game-over-the-latest-society-of-actuaries

Expand full comment
Aug 25, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Wow!…. very insightful. If you’d been my professor many years ago, I’d probably have continued in math/statistics which I’ve now learned can unearth hidden mysteries. Thank you Joel!

Expand full comment
Aug 24, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Joel, you are awesome💕

Expand full comment
Aug 24, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Your 72-thread/256G beast eats my 24-thread/16G chicken for breakfast...

Expand full comment

Impressive work! I lurched towards beta distributions and option vol surfaces for some reason, before I lurched back!

Just out of interest, and not wishing to distract you from the quality of your work, what are your thoughts on the impact on your work of the classification of covid19 deaths as "unvaccinated" if they occurred within 14 days of injection?

https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/21/analysis-by-german-prof-thousands-of-hidden-deaths-daily-may-be-greatest-medical-debacle-in-human-history/

Expand full comment

I found this article well above my understanding. I'm hopeless with graphs, just need a simple numbers explanation, but maybe that is not possible. I do appreciate the hours of work you have put into it though. No doubt it will be understood by most people smarter than I am.

Expand full comment

Hi, Joel,

What has happened in the UK on Aug. 13 - no more Covid deaths, zero, since that date, in ourworldindata.org. My hunch is, they pulled the plug on the last semblance of impartiality and just stopped reporting inconvenient data altogether?

Expand full comment

Awesome, Joel.

A couple of things that may be of interest.

I calculate 1662 excess deaths for the week ending 5/8/2022. This isn't over, and the present trend began around the end of April, with distortions around various holidays.

I've H1N1 on my to do list in regard to the disappearance of influenza in 2020. Getting data about that could be a problem.

And thanks for the Gompertz equation. Very very cool!

Expand full comment

Hi Joel, loving your substack content, but I have a query about why you called it after the demon Metatron. This blog post on the Lucefarian brotherhood which many high level politicians, including presidents, are members of explains. https://wp.me/pcIqfz-1OW

Expand full comment