Climate Change, the Sun and Human Development - Javier Vinós, Climate Researcher

Scientific Method - what should be taught in schools - logic and evidence-based reasoning, not political dogma.

Introduction - Evidence-based Reasoning vs Dogma in One Picture

Fact

Science shows that solar activity is strongly associated with changes in global temperatures over the last several thousand years.

Fiction

Fascist¹ organisations, like YouTube and the United Nations, dogmatically assert that human activity of burning “fossil fuels” is responsible, tacitly implying that higher temperatures are dangerous.

Let’s examine the evidence?

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Lesson 1 - LOGIC

1. Planet Earth receives near enough all of its heat energy from the Sun. Therefore, any change in solar activity, no matter how relatively small, is likely to have an effect on Earth temperature².

2. All life requires food to flourish. All life depends on plant matter - even carnivorous life, indirectly through the consumption of plant-eating animals.

3. Plants are more abundant in the presence of heat, light and CO2 so life should flourish better when the planet is warmer.

Lesson 2 - SCIENTIFIC METHOD

1. Use “climate proxies”, e.g. organic remains of marine phytoplankton and invertebrates at the bottom of lakes, plant pollen, ice cores from polar ice caps and glacial activity, and shelled marine microorganisms, to estimate global temperature over thousands of years. Note any significant observations, i.e. statistically significant upward or downward variation from “norm”.

   

2. Use scientific evidence to estimate solar activity over the same period, e.g. radiocarbon dating, which allows us to measure the magnitude of cosmic rays received by the planet over time as it manifests in organic matter like trees.

   

3. Compare the results of the global temperature variation over thousands of years to the variation in solar activity over the same period, especially the periods of “significance”.

   

4. Estimate levels of human development by examining radiocarbon-dated remains over the same period and compare the results to the changes in climate.

   

Lesson 3 - EVIDENCE-BASED REASONING

1. According to the evidence, relatively significant variation in solar activity, even though small in absolute terms, has had a material impact on global temperature, observed on several occasions in the last 11,000 years. When solar activity is at a minimum, global temperatures drop precipitously.

2. Human development flourished with the advent of agricultural practice about 6,000 years ago. Since then, the major declines in temperature, coinciding with lower levels of solar activity, have also coincided with sharp reductions in the evolution of human development.

3. A reasonable deduction is that downward variation in solar activity results in lower temperatures, resulting in lower food resources, resulting in reductions in human evolution.

4. Whilst this scientific examination does not conclude that the Sun is the only driver of climate change, it is evidence that it is a major factor and that there are many other natural factors that also affect global temperatures. Moreover, it contradicts the notion that increased global temperatures are a danger. On the contrary, higher temperatures are associated with higher levels of human productivity.

Lesson 4 - A CYNIC’S PERSPECTIVE

We are much closer to the bottom of the current period’s temperature range (the ‘Holocene’) than the top, as we have most recently emerged from a glacial maximum. Due to expectations of increased solar activity (over the longer term, even though there will be short-term declines in the cycle), temperatures are expected to rise significantly from this point, regardless of human activity.

A cynic³, like me, might even conclude that those who vociferously promote the narrative that the planet is warming dangerously and suggest action should be taken to reduce the natural impact of the sun in this regard, in fact know that to succeed would result in significant reduction of human development.

And, perhaps, that is their intention?

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Post Script

Regardless of the evidence, as pointed out by readers, much of the data collected is, in fact, so vague that nothing definitive can be concluded except that there are many natural factors affecting Earth’s climate, all of which are much greater in magnitude than the impact of human activity.

Therefore, any policy-driven reaction should be treated in that context, i.e. summarily ignored at best.

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Thank you for the lesson, Javier.

The Sun & Climate 1 - Javier Vinós

1. a political system based on contempt for democracy, the rule of elites, and state control, of which ‘corporatism’ is a core lever, being the merger of state and corporate interests, to the detriment of the people.

2. the fact that the seasons (cold winters and relatively hotter summers) are driven by Earth's tilted axis probably ought to be a clear enough indication of this for even the most simple minded.

3. a person who believes that human conduct is directed, either consciously or unconsciously, wholly by self-interest or self-indulgence, and that appearances to the contrary are superficial and untrustworthy.