COVID-19 in Ireland

A seasonal virus turbo charged by a mass vaccination program just like everywhere else that vaccinated hard, according to the data.

A reader of RFK’s bestseller on Fauci¹ said he encountered an “insurmountable problem” with the charts I prepared that showed a correlation between vaccination rollout and subsequent COVID mortality.

In particular he referred to Ireland, claiming that my presentation of the official public data was unreliable because he was actually in Ireland at the time that COVID spiked and was certain that vaccines had nothing to do with it. I quote:

THIS HAD *NOTHING WHATSOEVER* TO DO WITH VACCINES. Vaccines did not cause this spike in COVID cases because nobody could get vaccines in Ireland in January 2021. They were not available.

The arrow is only indicating when vaccines first were announced (December). They did not get distributed until many months later (spring and summer).

At the time I prepared those charts, data was not as detailed as it is now for many countries. We have been requesting better data since January last year but it is rarely forthcoming so we have to make do with that is made available.

However, now Ireland publishes vaccination data broken down by age so a more comprehensive analysis is possible.

Figure 1

As usual, I start by breaking down the case data into distinct waves using my Gompertz function (Figure 1). There were 25k reported cases (green area) during the spring epidemic, spread over 3 distinct waves (blue areas). The dotted black lines are the Gompertz models stacked on top of each other to show the accuracy of fit with the empirical data.

The trigger of these waves is not the subject of this study but perhaps someone who was in Ireland at the time could let us know if there were any particular events that might be responsible for the second and third waves?

Figure 2

Seasonality did its thing during the summer and COVID returned towards the end of August 2020 like seasonal respiratory pathogens usually do in the UK and Ireland (Figure 2).

There were four waves spanning autumn and early winter, counting for 48,000 cases.

Figure 3

The 2020-21 winter wave starts mid-December and is on course for another 68,000 cases (Figure 3). But then something extraordinary happens on the first day of 2021. A new outbreak occurs adding a further 52,000 cases right in the middle of the preceding wave. By the 29th Jan 2021, this sudden outbreak has receded.

Our avid reader is adamant this peculiar wave could not be attributed to the vaccine because it wasn’t available. Strangely then, according to the official public data, 95,000 people between the ages of 20 and 59 were vaccinated during that time. According to the vaccination programs, most of these would be healthcare workers.

Figure 4

I don’t know about you but I am particularly curious about the way that extraordinary wave of COVID cases follows the shape of the vaccinations almost exactly. I trust my eyes but I trust data more so I ran a regression between the two.

Figure 5

I’d say that’s quite significant (literally in statistical terms) - Figure 5.

Even though the correlation is very strong, perhaps it’s just a coincidence? But what if other waves were concomitant with vaccine rollout? Fortunately, there was no COVID in Ireland after the winter wave that started in Dec-20. Unfortunately, it means there was no way of supporting the hypothesis I made in early 2021 until the summer.

Figure 6

And what a summer. Like everywhere else in the northern hemisphere, COVID went on a very unseasonal rampage. There were three waves starting in June and ending in Sept, accounting for 95,000 cases (Figure 6). There were less than 5,000 during the same period a year earlier.

What could have caused such a 19-fold increase?

Figure 7

Again, it looks suspiciously like those waves emerge concomitant with two main vaccination drives of the 10 to 39 year olds. What do the regressions look like?

Figure 8

First vaccination drive (Figure 8) - significantly correlated.

Figure 9

Second vaccination drive (Figure 9) - significantly correlated.

According to Figure 6, there were three subsequent waves starting in August, September and October respectively. There was no significant new vaccination activity at that time but we did see the similar waves in 2020.

However, in 2020 they accounted for 48,000 cases whereas in 2021 there were 289,000! A six-fold increase “in spite” of the vaccine. I would say that this is not a surprise given that the vaccine does not prevent infection or transmission but apparently not everyone knows that?

Well, if you thought that was already bad enough, I had to split the rest of Dec-21 and Jan-22 because the scale made the other waves indecipherable (Figure 10).

Figure 10

So, we’re back in the realms of the extraordinary again and duty bound to investigate. In other years, the finger would most likely be pointed towards Xmas. But this year, there was another event in town.

“Give the gift of a COVID booster this Xmas!”, boasted the British PM. Ireland is a fully paid up member of the WEF so I assume they were making the same noises over the sea. I wasn’t there though so perhaps anyone holidaying at the time could set me straight?

At any rate, I have the data…

Figure 11

Maybe it’s just another coincidence but one thing that is certain is that with well over 300,000 cases by the time this wave completes in a couple of weeks, that’s six times more than the wave caused by the vaccination of healthcare workers the year before. Is that what they mean by “booster”?

1. https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8