Heh heh. Brilliant. This has all been obvious to the naked eye for a year but the more complete data and regressions prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
I lived in Ireland in a rural community over this period. On the ground, health care workers who were vaccinated would have been a vector of transmission to those frail with multiple co-morbidities. This is well discussed in the UK care homes debacle https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/why-i-spoke-out-against-lockdown/. The UK shares a land border with Ireland. I was living in a border county. The UK had a considerable head start on its vaccination campaign and vaccinees were being publicly advised by the government that they did not transmit the virus. So another vector of transmission was cross-border traffic. Local media convinced the public that outbreaks followed football crowds. At the time the Irish government were locking down the Irish public to a 5km radius they still had not placed any restrictions on international flights. If there is ever a public enquiry the human behaviours that underpin the data will show that the most frail in our communities were first to be sacrificed at the hands of those whom believed they had an invisible shield against transmission. A significant vector of transmission at the time was remote working. Remote working enabled large numbers of urban and suburban work force to relocate to rural areas. Most of these were from Dublin but a significant number were from the UK and America. So over seasonal holiday periods there would have been significant long distance commuting. However it is clear that in November 2021 https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642. The Irish authorities were floating the idea that lock downs were a vector of transmission while at the same time the Irish public were wakening up to the unthinkable. It was possible to transmit the virus even if you were vaccinated.
Attended 100,000+ American football crowds during September 2020. Very few spectators wore masks, no vax passes, no covid proofing of any kind. Four consecutive weekends of this. Super spreader events? No problems reported. None, zero, nada.
The fact that Ireland has a considerable economic contribution from Big Pharma would be an important indicator as to why the lock down, irrational measures were so draconian.
I work in radar signal processing. Nobody in my field says "correlation is not causation" when the signal matches a weather front, for example. Sure, we've seen it over and over. But now you see it over and over. We don't use p-values, but p=.000001 would seem large for a meta analysis of your waves.
Can anybody provide another cause of death? Thought not.
Correlation doesn't prove OR DISPROVE causation, but it is the only process by which we can learn. Observation. That the maps of the vaccinated look quite similar to the maps of the illness(es). The timing of the rollouts and waves of illness. The W E F depop sentiments recorded on videos. Same for longer trends in vaccine rollouts and kids /adult health declines. Its embarrassing how long the poisoning agenda has been operating relatively undisturbed in agriculture and pharma, the last 100 years, esp. the last 50. With its dependance on petrochemicals, I look foward to the end of oil 'production' in my lifetime, however rocky (!) it will be. End fracking. It's all related, feeding bad.
Wonderful article. I wonder if Joel Smiley could next maybe look at how the Alberta numbers would shift in common metrics life cases, hospitalization and death per 100,000 if we move the definition of vaccination back to the original meaning of the moment plunger pushed chemicals into your arm, you're vaccinated as Alberta's health numbers briefly showed 56 percent of all deaths from covid 19 occurred with 14 days of immunization. So if you took the unvaccinated category and shift 56 percent of the deaths to the vaccinated group, since they had the dose in them... How bad would they look?
I feel as if they are paying a magic trick and trying to say pandemic if the unvaccinated with a dazzle left hand distraction while using the right hand to shift 56 percent of vaccinated deaths to the unvaccinated box...
re shifting the data using the Alberta deaths numbers (there are others) - it moves the modelled mortality to the right by just over a week. It's not really observable in data unless jabs are rapidly increasing. Reporting is affected by bank holidays and by end-of-month effects and most recently by Christmas and New Year events, unless you are actively working with the data it is likely irrelevant in the vast sweep of causality IMHO.
I know it's too much to expect that one of the first cohorts to receive a novel drug would be tracked, but do they give initial healthcare professional only infection rates for that period when vaccines were released?
Weekly all cause mortality is available in stratified form is available for England and Wales both for current weeks and for the 5-year average.
Daily data for vaccinations stratified by age is available for England only. The two datasets do not directly match, but there is such tight correlation for teens and children it is difficult to argue against causality.
With excess mortality around 25% in the 30-45 age group I'll suggest that as few as 10 autopsies could deliver a verdict as to the cause.
Nice of you to absorb feedback, no matter the tone of voice in which it is nestled. I shared your Substack with Ivor Commins in Ireland. You may know him, if not check him out on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FatEmperor
I always engage with attempts at dialectic even if sometimes my tone can also be a little terse at times! I've been on Ivor's show. Jeez, I think it might have been 2020!!
Question: could the wave be driving the increase in vaccination? Basically, people see the reports that Covid cases are increasing, public health is pushing the shot and making it easy to get, so the “hesitant” decide to get the shot out of fear increasing the numbers vaccinated? Just trying to understand all aspects.
I think then the red line should be after the wave not before. But also that should not prove anything as governments could delay data reporting of vaccinations so looks delayed.
Like here government made every pandemic response confidential for 10 years. I don't even understand what kind of excuse they used to be able to do so...
It shows an really unusual spike in hospital admissions in Ontario in the Spring of '21 that coincides exactly with the initial vaccine rollout, which can be seen here:
Not sure what else would explain such a huge increase over all other increases during the 'Covid era'. Perhaps not so much an impact on healthcare workers but rather on the more vulnerable among the elderly? This spike was explained as our '3rd wave' of Covid, but might be better understood as the injected 'unvaccinated' filling hospitals.
People basically died because they were not proper medical care - therapeutics that are known to work. Instead they were told to stay home and wait and see. And they became very ill. Those unfortunate to go to the hospital then were given redemsevir and put on ventilators - a death sentence. They know that if they do this the patient has a 99% chance of dying, but they do it anyways.
Your analysis shows very positive correlations. I am glad you reported the coefficient of determination (r-squared). For the casual reader, correlation analysis assumes that all the observations are independent of each other.
My questions are what about Heteroscedasticity and residual plots?
Also, one of the most often comments about data analysis is that "CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSATION."
How do you answer those that are skeptical of this analysis?
To be frank, my conclusion is always, this deserves proper investigation. It is not for people like me to be doing this in our own time. The public agencies should be doing this work. They have the resources, just not the inclination. Moreover, they have even richer data and won't share it.
Exactly the kind of hard data we need. Thank you. This is how we show that the people behind the "vaccines" are running a scam. Decent, highly qualified Scientists demonstrating with correctly used statistical analyses. If only we could get the data - all of it and honestly presented (my hopes aren't high)- from the Pfizer Company on their "vaccine" trials from the beginning to this date.
Heh heh. Brilliant. This has all been obvious to the naked eye for a year but the more complete data and regressions prove it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
I lived in Ireland in a rural community over this period. On the ground, health care workers who were vaccinated would have been a vector of transmission to those frail with multiple co-morbidities. This is well discussed in the UK care homes debacle https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/why-i-spoke-out-against-lockdown/. The UK shares a land border with Ireland. I was living in a border county. The UK had a considerable head start on its vaccination campaign and vaccinees were being publicly advised by the government that they did not transmit the virus. So another vector of transmission was cross-border traffic. Local media convinced the public that outbreaks followed football crowds. At the time the Irish government were locking down the Irish public to a 5km radius they still had not placed any restrictions on international flights. If there is ever a public enquiry the human behaviours that underpin the data will show that the most frail in our communities were first to be sacrificed at the hands of those whom believed they had an invisible shield against transmission. A significant vector of transmission at the time was remote working. Remote working enabled large numbers of urban and suburban work force to relocate to rural areas. Most of these were from Dublin but a significant number were from the UK and America. So over seasonal holiday periods there would have been significant long distance commuting. However it is clear that in November 2021 https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642. The Irish authorities were floating the idea that lock downs were a vector of transmission while at the same time the Irish public were wakening up to the unthinkable. It was possible to transmit the virus even if you were vaccinated.
Attended 100,000+ American football crowds during September 2020. Very few spectators wore masks, no vax passes, no covid proofing of any kind. Four consecutive weekends of this. Super spreader events? No problems reported. None, zero, nada.
I meant September 2021
The fact that Ireland has a considerable economic contribution from Big Pharma would be an important indicator as to why the lock down, irrational measures were so draconian.
I work in radar signal processing. Nobody in my field says "correlation is not causation" when the signal matches a weather front, for example. Sure, we've seen it over and over. But now you see it over and over. We don't use p-values, but p=.000001 would seem large for a meta analysis of your waves.
Can anybody provide another cause of death? Thought not.
Correlation doesn't prove OR DISPROVE causation, but it is the only process by which we can learn. Observation. That the maps of the vaccinated look quite similar to the maps of the illness(es). The timing of the rollouts and waves of illness. The W E F depop sentiments recorded on videos. Same for longer trends in vaccine rollouts and kids /adult health declines. Its embarrassing how long the poisoning agenda has been operating relatively undisturbed in agriculture and pharma, the last 100 years, esp. the last 50. With its dependance on petrochemicals, I look foward to the end of oil 'production' in my lifetime, however rocky (!) it will be. End fracking. It's all related, feeding bad.
Data rarely lies, its that we don’t want to see.
Wonderful article. I wonder if Joel Smiley could next maybe look at how the Alberta numbers would shift in common metrics life cases, hospitalization and death per 100,000 if we move the definition of vaccination back to the original meaning of the moment plunger pushed chemicals into your arm, you're vaccinated as Alberta's health numbers briefly showed 56 percent of all deaths from covid 19 occurred with 14 days of immunization. So if you took the unvaccinated category and shift 56 percent of the deaths to the vaccinated group, since they had the dose in them... How bad would they look?
I feel as if they are paying a magic trick and trying to say pandemic if the unvaccinated with a dazzle left hand distraction while using the right hand to shift 56 percent of vaccinated deaths to the unvaccinated box...
re shifting the data using the Alberta deaths numbers (there are others) - it moves the modelled mortality to the right by just over a week. It's not really observable in data unless jabs are rapidly increasing. Reporting is affected by bank holidays and by end-of-month effects and most recently by Christmas and New Year events, unless you are actively working with the data it is likely irrelevant in the vast sweep of causality IMHO.
I know it's too much to expect that one of the first cohorts to receive a novel drug would be tracked, but do they give initial healthcare professional only infection rates for that period when vaccines were released?
One of the very first things I requested under FOI. I was told they could not release the data due to risk of disclosure.
Thank you for pushing back even while there are roadblocks. Disclosure...What kind of bs is that? Anonymize the data and make it available.
The same bs they used to withhold the number of children that died after the jab.
Weekly all cause mortality is available in stratified form is available for England and Wales both for current weeks and for the 5-year average.
Daily data for vaccinations stratified by age is available for England only. The two datasets do not directly match, but there is such tight correlation for teens and children it is difficult to argue against causality.
With excess mortality around 25% in the 30-45 age group I'll suggest that as few as 10 autopsies could deliver a verdict as to the cause.
It certainly does boost! It seems insane that they keep trying to explain away this problem.
Great analysis! I don't know how anyone can argue otherwise!
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/
Thank you for this data and analysis. You are making a difference!
Nice of you to absorb feedback, no matter the tone of voice in which it is nestled. I shared your Substack with Ivor Commins in Ireland. You may know him, if not check him out on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FatEmperor
I always engage with attempts at dialectic even if sometimes my tone can also be a little terse at times! I've been on Ivor's show. Jeez, I think it might have been 2020!!
Joel, check r.i.p.ie website, in Dublin alone deaths a day are abnormally high compared to 2020
Freekin brilliant rebuttal n high-level analysis, Joel! "Let those who have eyes, see... "
Question: could the wave be driving the increase in vaccination? Basically, people see the reports that Covid cases are increasing, public health is pushing the shot and making it easy to get, so the “hesitant” decide to get the shot out of fear increasing the numbers vaccinated? Just trying to understand all aspects.
Oof, positive feedback loop.
I think then the red line should be after the wave not before. But also that should not prove anything as governments could delay data reporting of vaccinations so looks delayed.
Like here government made every pandemic response confidential for 10 years. I don't even understand what kind of excuse they used to be able to do so...
Joel, you might want to look at this site: https://www.kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-tracker/
It shows an really unusual spike in hospital admissions in Ontario in the Spring of '21 that coincides exactly with the initial vaccine rollout, which can be seen here:
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/
Not sure what else would explain such a huge increase over all other increases during the 'Covid era'. Perhaps not so much an impact on healthcare workers but rather on the more vulnerable among the elderly? This spike was explained as our '3rd wave' of Covid, but might be better understood as the injected 'unvaccinated' filling hospitals.
Keep up the great work!
Yes, I've done a comprehensive analysis on Ontario, just haven't had time to write it up yet. Same patterns.
https://twitter.com/mdccclxx/status/1482816731945000962?t=_y92_XX5Xgaet9QADw3HyQ&s=19
It might be worth a Canadian post or two with the light shining on the North. Will share.
People basically died because they were not proper medical care - therapeutics that are known to work. Instead they were told to stay home and wait and see. And they became very ill. Those unfortunate to go to the hospital then were given redemsevir and put on ventilators - a death sentence. They know that if they do this the patient has a 99% chance of dying, but they do it anyways.
Your analysis shows very positive correlations. I am glad you reported the coefficient of determination (r-squared). For the casual reader, correlation analysis assumes that all the observations are independent of each other.
My questions are what about Heteroscedasticity and residual plots?
Also, one of the most often comments about data analysis is that "CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSATION."
How do you answer those that are skeptical of this analysis?
To be frank, my conclusion is always, this deserves proper investigation. It is not for people like me to be doing this in our own time. The public agencies should be doing this work. They have the resources, just not the inclination. Moreover, they have even richer data and won't share it.
AMEN BROTHER! keep up the great analysis.
Exactly the kind of hard data we need. Thank you. This is how we show that the people behind the "vaccines" are running a scam. Decent, highly qualified Scientists demonstrating with correctly used statistical analyses. If only we could get the data - all of it and honestly presented (my hopes aren't high)- from the Pfizer Company on their "vaccine" trials from the beginning to this date.