“If one adds time into consideration, as one should, pondering Covid-19 deaths 14 days later and how the relationship vaccines vs. future deaths evolves, the picture is actually one where it seems that more Covid-19 vaccination actually leads to more Covid-19 deaths.
Just plot time (days), daily vaccination rates, and deaths 14 days later. Then do a surface fit (Linear, for simplicity, or something like a Spline to better "hug" the data points). One finds that deaths decrease with time and actually INCREASE with vaccination.
Unlike some of the other nations in Europe that have been posted , it appears that 2020 went down. It would be interesting to explore what deaths went down . They seem to have a large older population so it’s quite possible with overall restrictions some portion may simply be a nation wide management of vectors .
But then 2021 that seemed to have just as many restrictions all deaths exceeded the 10 year average , leap frogging 2020.
What is not calculated in the data is the comparison of all deaths to 2020. Which would seem to be around 10% while in a lock down ish year . Unlike other nations , Australia has the unique comparative of restriction to restriction whilst also having vaccination at high levels . The challenge is that lower then average death numbers often means those deaths are higher in following seasons . So we likely estimate that effect of vaccination is a 5% increase in all death .
Where if we can estimate that many nations realized an all death increase of 20% (?) Australia may boast an all life saving of 15% . However, if the all death saving is perpetuated year over year , while a low vaccinated nation only realizes the higher results in the single year in a few short years the Australian approach is relatively. Poor
Trying to work out what the integers in columns 1 and 3 refer to -- is that the lag between bump in deaths relative to baseline, and the timing of the vax? And you look for the lag in weeks that provides the best correlation? If my interpretation is correct, then dose 3 has a consistent 6 week lag until vax-induced death, while for dose 1, there is a rather wide range from 1 to 6 weeks. Also, when you said the R2 increased from 43% to 92%, what are you comparing? Kevin Brau
I'm writing some of the more comprehensive studies up formally. I'm prioritising stuff I've been asked to prepare for legal challenges to vaccine mandates.
See this guy's plot:
https://twitter.com/bcs221b/status/1479072762664792065
He stated in a comment:
https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/01/no-fancy-statistics-simply-plot-of.html?showComment=1641981033008#c3693838699067488985
“If one adds time into consideration, as one should, pondering Covid-19 deaths 14 days later and how the relationship vaccines vs. future deaths evolves, the picture is actually one where it seems that more Covid-19 vaccination actually leads to more Covid-19 deaths.
Just plot time (days), daily vaccination rates, and deaths 14 days later. Then do a surface fit (Linear, for simplicity, or something like a Spline to better "hug" the data points). One finds that deaths decrease with time and actually INCREASE with vaccination.
I posted a graph in response to your tweet.”
Impressive work Joel. Here's hoping all these countries do not push a dose 4 experiment. Seems like 3 is enough for us to reach conclusions.
The font of clarity.
That Australian all death data looking somewhat interesting . As usual , 2021 seeing more deaths then 2020 shots. I’d post a pic but can’t
Check it out though in link
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release
Yes, but back in line with normal levels, that's all?
Unlike some of the other nations in Europe that have been posted , it appears that 2020 went down. It would be interesting to explore what deaths went down . They seem to have a large older population so it’s quite possible with overall restrictions some portion may simply be a nation wide management of vectors .
But then 2021 that seemed to have just as many restrictions all deaths exceeded the 10 year average , leap frogging 2020.
What is not calculated in the data is the comparison of all deaths to 2020. Which would seem to be around 10% while in a lock down ish year . Unlike other nations , Australia has the unique comparative of restriction to restriction whilst also having vaccination at high levels . The challenge is that lower then average death numbers often means those deaths are higher in following seasons . So we likely estimate that effect of vaccination is a 5% increase in all death .
Where if we can estimate that many nations realized an all death increase of 20% (?) Australia may boast an all life saving of 15% . However, if the all death saving is perpetuated year over year , while a low vaccinated nation only realizes the higher results in the single year in a few short years the Australian approach is relatively. Poor
Everyone dies some time! Hence, the importance of life-years rather than absolute deaths.
Yes, life years lost is a significant metric that doesn’t seem to get nearly
Enough attention . Certainly
One can bring attention to it , but only when the actually figures are presented does any reader appreciate the impact
Trying to work out what the integers in columns 1 and 3 refer to -- is that the lag between bump in deaths relative to baseline, and the timing of the vax? And you look for the lag in weeks that provides the best correlation? If my interpretation is correct, then dose 3 has a consistent 6 week lag until vax-induced death, while for dose 1, there is a rather wide range from 1 to 6 weeks. Also, when you said the R2 increased from 43% to 92%, what are you comparing? Kevin Brau
Joelsmalley@protonmail.com
I'm writing some of the more comprehensive studies up formally. I'm prioritising stuff I've been asked to prepare for legal challenges to vaccine mandates.