Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 1 January and 31 October 2021

ONS no longer cooking the books but the deception continues?

Cherry picking end points, aggregating when they should be looking at time series, splitting when they should be aggregating, and a liberal dose of cognitive dissonance to caveat results that counter the narrative but ignored in order to support it.

Other than that, it seems our previous forensic re-analyses seem to have had an impact. It seems they are no longer misclassifying vaccination statuses but still refuse to release the unfettered underlying data or the data prior to 1st Jan, despite FOI requests.

Unfortunately, we can’t see the impact by comparing the current bulletin to the last because they have changed from weekly reporting to monthly. I won’t speculate on why that might be!

The deception continues.

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The headline is a 96% lower COVID mortality in the fully vaccinated (dose 2 +21 days) compared to the unvaccinated, aggregated across time and all ages. Why dose 2 + 21 days is massively skewed by survivorship bias, take another look at El Gato’s masterful foxhole analogy -

why "vaccinated covid deaths/hospitalizations" are being counted incorrectly

Nothing in the “Main Points” about all-cause mortality which is considerably more important and one last point given to non-COVID mortality heavily caveated.

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You can read the report¹ yourself to see what I mean about the biases of emphasis and the mental gymnastics applied to play down any implication that the vaccines might actually be overall more harmful but here I’m going to simply depict graphically the data they didn’t even present and let you draw your own conclusions. I will, however, give you my insights.

First of all, I’m going to give a vaccinated / non-vaccinated dataset. None of their analysis fully combines all four vaccination statuses even though they often compare to the unvaccinated status on its own so you never get a real appreciation of the full effect of vaccination on mortality.

N.B. I have also combined their up to and beyond 21 day distinctions for dose 1 and dose 2 since they are not relevant unless your only objective is to identify some semblance of vaccine effectiveness on COVID mortality and nothing else.

Secondly, I’m going to focus solely on all-cause mortality. This is the single most important metric, not COVID mortality. What if the reason why the vaccinated die less of COVID because the vaccine gets them first? Anyone in public health stop to consider this? Or were they too busy sweeping vaccine injury under the carpet, hoping no-one would notice while they use the quangos and propaganda pushers to keep the myopic focus on the big C?

Can’t really use the excuse about small population denominators in the 18-39 year olds? So, how else would you explain a seven-fold increase in all-cause mortality in the vaccinated in April? And persistent excess throughout the observation period?

Same argument for the 40-49 year olds. Three-fold increase in Sept, persistent excess.

And so it continues across all the older age groups too.

Because so far to me, it looks like there’s very little difference until April before the partially vaccinated start dying at considerably higher rates and yet even though the most vulnerable have been hit trying to get from the foxhole to the bunker, their bunker is no safer than the foxhole. How does it look to you?

As we move into the over 70s, something else peculiar emerges in the data. The vaccinated mortality starts to increase again from September. Could this be the booster effect?

I’ve rushed this out this morning instead of wrapping Xmas presents for my kids so I might have got it completely wrong. But all I’ve done is chart the data that was provided with the bulletin².

I welcome others to steer me where I have erred and help us all along the correct path to the truth.

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Post Script.

Talk about survivorship bias. If you survived COVID 21 days after dose 2, it had less to do with vaccine protection and more to do with the fact you were strong enough to withstand the damage it did on your way there.

Sorry, I couldn't help drawing my own conclusion.

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Post Script 2

Thanks for the comments about the aggregating of the mortality rates. Here are the charts with simple averaging. If I can get the underlying components of the data, I will update again with the true aggregates.

As you can see, we have the spuriously high unvaccinated mortality rates back again in Jan through March so perhaps they didn’t correct that after all?

But what we still see is that once the vaccinated population is large enough to iron out any issues of heterogeneity, small denominator bias and population estimate issues, the mortality rate for all ages is above average and rising in the oldest age groups since boosters started.

1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021

2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021/relateddata