51 Comments

I won't believe this unless it has been peer reviewed.

Sorry, bad joke, just read a gato malo post.

Great work, love the graphs.

Expand full comment

😂😂 seriously though, the entire concept of peer review is funny. Basically, peer reviewed journals take the same type of people with the same type of opinions and the same type of training and tell them to SKIM a paper a couple of times to make sure it makes sense (ie. To ensure it is the same type of paper for the same type of journal). Reviewers in most journals are not asked to take a close look at the evidence. True peer review occurs when the peer review process is over and a paper is released to the public to be scrutinized. Unfortunately, the public believes the process of peer review ends prior to scrutiny which leads to the same type of outcome: scientific illiteracy.

Expand full comment

🥰🥰detective Smalley you are amazing. I can only say, thank you. It does not get any clearer. How do we get this information into the heads of the brainwashed. One, maybe two pieces of data at a time. That is all they can take in. I’ve tried.

Today a 70+ y.o. Friend (male) told me he thought the whack job leader, from New Zealand is great. I decided not to even try to dissuade him. MSM has a lot to answer for.

Expand full comment

Gee, Geert Vanden Bossche and Didier Raoult were correct about the vaccines before they came out. I guess they are both "real virologists." A clue might have been Raoult's Google Scholar rating.

Expand full comment

and Dr Sucharit Bhakdi, called it early too.

Expand full comment
Jan 28, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Unfortunately Fauci and the other lying bastards won't have to worry about MSM covering anything that reflects negatively on them, big pharma, or the fascist party.

Expand full comment

Brilliant work 👏

Expand full comment
Jan 28, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Great stuff Joel. Keep it up.

Expand full comment
Jan 28, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Can you add which strains were active at the time? I believe 2021 had Delta. 2020 must have been an earlier, less viral and less deadly strain. Delta was caused by the leaky vaccines.

Expand full comment
author

I think it is pretty clear by now that all the VOCs were caused by the vaccine.

Expand full comment

Except Omicron. Omicron is a resurgence of a strain that predates the Wuhan strain. At least, Ethical Skeptic had me convinced of it.

Expand full comment
Jan 29, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Fascinating, and of course this observation is mirrored globally,i believe. People were asking me last year, in the uk in middle of summer, i thought you said respiratory virus are seasonal? I had my suspicions then, but darent voice them.

Expand full comment
Jan 29, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

This is compelling, and fascinating. It has been clear to many of us that if you look at a high level, covid 2021 was actually worse than 2020 which should not happen in the presence of a highly effective vax, high vax uptake, and significant natural immunity. The narrative can't explain that. Joel has.

Expand full comment
Jan 29, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Thank you for helping educate the world on this matter.

Expand full comment

Great work as usual! I feel like we here on Substack live on a different planet from most people. The “fact” planet, which I’ll dub Factus. What shall we name the other planet? Karenus? Suggestions for a name?

Expand full comment

Ok I’ll start- how about the other planet being called Stupiter?

Expand full comment

What is going on with Hawai’i? Heavily jabbed. I’m assuming similar result in terms of increase in cases tracking with jab roll-out. Can Hawai’i be included in the analysis as well?

Expand full comment

very much open to this line of thinking but isn't possible from a psychological standpoint that increased cases (fear) is driving vaccination rates rather than vaccination rates driving cases? Could also be a nasty feedback loop if vaccination rates drive up cases which drive more people to get vaccinated. Have you looked at a control group of a minimally vaccinated country compared to highly vaccinated neighbor with similar seasonality?

Expand full comment
author

It's been put forward many times and doesn't hold water. I have made clear here vaccinations lead cases by at least 1 week. This does not even consider reporting lag in the real world. And if case rates were such a compelling motivator why are govts spending so much money promoting the jab and other coercive activity? It's not a viable hypothesis but it can still be tested if anyone wants to do the market research.

Expand full comment
Jan 29, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

I find the data compelling, just trying to have an open mind and noodle through possible other reasons for such a tight coupling. When these charts are considered in tandem with the recent data coming out of the UK showing "2-dose" folks having such a rough go of it now, I'm wondering if the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" which has turned into the "pandemic of the vaccinated" is really more accurately described as a "pandemic of the recently vaccinated".

Expand full comment
author

It has ever been thus. The double vax waning hypothesis is/was a red herring. The third jab events being dumped into the double vaxxed is the issue as it was with the siongle jabbed being dumped in the unvaccinated. See my second report on Alberta for the evidence.

Expand full comment

Reminds me I tried to explain that CO2 was a lagging indicator of

temps, not a leading one...but it caused massive anger and yelling.

Expand full comment

You could quickly rehash your analysis, but this time test covid rate (lagged say anywhere from 1 to 8 weeks) and vax rate correlation. Be generous and take the most flattering lag time. If the correlation is still lower, then it would strengthen the case that A causes B and not B causes A.

Expand full comment

Ah, which way the lag points was *not* clear to me. So we're seeing vaccinations overlaid with cases from one or two weeks later?

Vaccines ===> 1–2 weeks ===> increase in covid cases

What I'm often wondering is how many of these covid cases are felt as illness, and how many are just positive swab tests?

Expand full comment
Jan 28, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Fear response could tighten the correlation but not fully account for it. It would have to be the primary factor driving vaccination plus wouldn't work with multiple peaks.

Large groups of those first to vaccinate did so as soon as they could - call it fear in general, but in response to the last year+ not the active case rate that week. Also large motivating factors exist outside fear, like employer/local health mandates or restrictions that wouldn't consistently correlate with case rates on their as the compliance dates were announced weeks or months ahead of enforcement.

Also fear-motivated vaccinations are a one time event - you don't get re-vaxxed everytime cases rise. This would potentially correlate negatively, even, with case rates the more waves you have. E.g., imagine two waves months apart in a region where the first hits 10k cases at peak and the second 5k at peak. How many people would be scared into getting vaxxed due to the smaller peak that weren't scared enough by the first larger wave? Non-zero, but the longer your period you'd need ever increasing record peaks to continue to drive more fear-motivated vaxxing with high correlation. Also wouldn't be linear as this post's data demonstrates.

Interesting question wrt country comparisons but 50 states with enough geographic distance and variation in vaccine uptake as the US has is already pretty sufficient.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I generally agree with what you're saying here. I mention fear because these charts are strikingly similar to the price charts of highly speculative stocks. It seems to me like in those stocks, the price is not really a chart of the value of the stock per se, but rather a chart of the collective emotions of the speculators...the more it goes up the more fear of missing out which makes it go up and up until the market runs out people being driven by those emotions. Essentially a feedback loop, and maybe that's at play to a certain extent with regards to the vaccinations. That the vaccination rate is driving the case rate rather than the other way around does seem like the most likely explanation.

What is interesting is that there is an uncanny degree of consistency across all of those charts with regards to the scale of the linear relationship. Meaning, assuming the vaccinations are directly driving cases, they appear to do so at about the same rate across all the states charted which to me lends more support for the hypothesis.

Expand full comment

Something's wrong with the legend on the graphs. What is the dotted orange? why does it follow the solid orange starting mid Jul.? For better understanding.

Expand full comment
author

They don't provide a breakdown of vaccinations by cohort so I have separated the true inception of the July campaign using some simple modelling. It makes little difference to the overall results but I like to be thorough.

Expand full comment

Perhaps a combo of three factors could explain this:

1) Acute immunosuppression

2) A percentage of people mistake their vaccine side effects for covid and then incidentally get tested

3) Vaccines injure and hospitalize people, where they are then incidentally tested for covid.

Only number 1 seems both necessary and sufficient to explain the data. Numbers 2 and 3 Could be tagging along though. May be worth looking at correlation with hospitalization rates.

Expand full comment

Please excuse my ignorance, but how did you regress vaccinations on 2020 cases, when there were so few vaccinated at the time?

Expand full comment
author

It's myth that there were so few. You can see from the data how many there were and their distribution. I regressed the reported data. If it didn't happen, they wouldn't have reported it? Well, I know they obfuscate and manipulate but setting those aside, that's what I'm going on.

Expand full comment