Investigation of Excess Deaths in Japan

Between 170k and 345k excess deaths in Japan since the COVID mRNA experiment started in April 2021.

Results of Investigation

As many as 345,000 Japanese have died in “excess” between 25-Apr-21 and 26-Mar-23 (and still counting), a truly unprecedented mortality event in the last quarter of a century.¹

Prior to 25-Apr-21, excess mortality had not exhibited any signs of unusual activity, in spite of the alleged deadliness of COVID that was rife in the western world for an entire year.

Perhaps just coincidentally, Japan started administering the experimental mRNA product to its citizens a couple of weeks before death rates soared, an experiment they evidently did not need to take part in.

Also, perhaps coincidentally, each subsequent wave of death appears to follow a new round of “vaccinations”.

Especially perplexing is the second largest mortality “wave”, occurring between June and Sept 2022, coinciding with the second round of boosters, when Japan typically experiences lowest mortality.

These results support the serious allegations made by Dr Masanori Fukushima to the Ministry of Health seven months ago, calling for an urgent investigation of the mRNA experiment (amazingly still on YouTube).

Alas, his proclamations that people will suffer and die if the investigation is not conducted, continue to materialise while the product remains on the market.

---

Methodology

Step 1 - fit a polynomial through the weekly deaths between 2000 and 2019 to establish the trend.

Step 2 - fit a sinusoid (a sine wave function, solving for amplitude, periodicity, time and amplitude offsets) through the detrended excess deaths (observed deaths minus predicted value from step 1).

Step 3 - estimate excess deaths as the difference between detrended excess deaths and the sinusoid.

N.B. fitting a 2-order polynomial in step 1, instead of a 3-order, yields a less convex trend, resulting in lower excess deaths for the most recent period.² Nevertheless, this is still an unprecedented event with over 180,000 excess deaths during the period:

For completeness, I thought I would also run a 4-order polynomial through the underlying data, results below, not substantial change to the outcome³, even though the most recent trend is now upward sloping⁴.

---

I am grateful to Denis Rancourt and “Mongol” for making me attempt a more robust excess mortality model. ✅

Data source: https://exdeaths-japan.org/

1. To put this into perspective, that’s about 14 weeks worth of expected deaths.

2. But, in my expert opinion, does not look as reasonable! ;-) As readily observed, the 2-order polynomial does not capture the levelling off between 2009 and 2014, resulting in several years missing the expected mean reversion. As a consequence, I would be tempted to fit a 10-year cycle to the excess mortality which would suggest 2020 ought to have been a downtrend. This would bring us back to the same result as the 3-order polynomial.

3. There is simply no hiding the fact that Japan mortality is experiencing substantially higher low points and seasonal peaks than any model can reasonably accommodate in the “post-vax” era.

4. As with the 2-order polynomial model, there is an apparent cyclicality in the cumulative excess with this model that suggests 2020 should run into significant deficit. Making an allowance for this would mean increasing the excess mortality for the period by at least 30,000 IMO.