This is basically the end of the Japanese race as we have known it. Large proportions of the white race in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Europe will also be gone as this plays out. This is an extinction level event.
100% true. At current rates of native population decline in Scotland (where i'm from) 75% of natives are gone in 3 generations. Of course this is on current trends assuming they do not acccelerate. Same in many other countries.
I believe they are waiting till the point where they understand that they can no longer fend off collapse of the global economy ... and then they will unleash the pathogen.
Notice how they are not pushing the Rat Juice boosters ... no free donuts... no need ... it's mission accomplished...
Recall the final scene from Season 2 of Utopia --- he carves the chinese characters for Year of the Rabbit onto his chest (2023 is a rabbit yr).... and we are left looking at the 'binary poison' in the cannisters.... https://youtu.be/Z_O_Ly8REqk?t=145
How odd that they left us hanging - no Season 3... are we living S3?
I saw that Leprosy is back. And of course we have the pending Super Bug that Geert Vanden Bossche makes a compelling case "will" eventually arise. Don't forget about TB that lies dormant in many of the world's populations. There are just a slew of diseases that we have not been seen since the Middle Ages that may "suddenly" start killing the vaccinated.
That we know of.... It may have already been created or will be created soon. We have literally billions of functioning petri dishes working 24/7 on it right now.
He made an estimate that the "Inescapable Immune Escape Pandemic" may occur this fall. For those who have not been following Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche, he wrote a book about the Escape Pandemic. The virus is under huge immune pressure in highly vaccinated populations. The jabs create weakly bonding, not-sterilizing anti-bodies that give some but waning protection to the jabbed. mRNA viruses constantly mutate. There genome cannot get bigger as the replication errors from a single strand mRNA would fail to produce viable copies.
So we have billions of "petri dishes" infected with the virus, slowed by the weak antibodies, until a break through virus occurs. Dr. Bossche wrote that the new virulent virus will be stopped when it cannot replicate in the un-jabbed because they are immune and cannot replicate in the jabbed because they have died.
True. This killshot is designed to take us backwards; to stop us from progressing. This is not only about Big Pharma. This is a psychological warfare by something non-human. Only the third world with the highest brutalities and worse human rights record is to survive and take over the running of the world. We're advancing too much.
This kind of destruction seem to be on auto-pilot.
It's exactly what occurred to other civilizations, such as Atlantis and Europe in the Middle Ages. Atlantis was said to have been significantly more sophisticated than we are today, with human capacity deeply evolved into the supernatural. It was destroyed and sunk under water, and humanity reverted to their primordial ways. When Europe advanced further during the Middle Ages, they witnessed the birth of Islam. Islam set out to destroy Europe, eradicating traditional European civilizations and sinking it into darkness while peasants took over religion and leadership leading to the narrow-minded medival times, while Islam also establishing the largest slave trade in human history.
Under Islamic law, about 180 million Africans were enslaved and millions of Europeans in such large numbers there was not even records left of it because everything was burnt and looted. 670 million people were slaughtered throughout civilizations in 1400 years of Islamic history. India, too, had immense human progress at the time it was destroyed by Islam, which relegated them to the stone age.
Yup.... Possibly the end of Western Civilization... my mind immediately travels to the ending scene in Fahrenheit 451. When the people who are still free set out to memorize the books that are banned from the world. They individually try to preserve what is left of their culture, their history and their way of life from the machine that is trying to extinguish all of it. Will anyone remember what the people of the Western Civilization built and who they were? Or will we become a lost civilization?
My friend, Lawrence, you’re too ethnocentric. It’s not only Western cultures which are in danger.
The Far East is injected up to the gills, and they don’t lick honey. Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia—just to name a few—cultures that will be obliterated should those dire predictions come true.
Of course - but it is western civilization (and white people) that created the modern world… so that is my concern. Many of the countries in the far east have a mixture of MRNA and Sino-vax and will not be wiped out like the western cultures. The Sino-vax is a normal vaccine from China (it still has problems but it is not a genocide maker)
deagel.com said plan to lose 19% of pop in Japan, 65% in US. Most people won't notice the 19% loss because the pop density in the cities will still be high and the elderly are on their way out and with low fertility they have been programmed to expect it.
Thank you for calling it the MRNA Covid experiment. Our government is still paying ob/ gyn physicians and hospitals to administer the jab to pregnant women. What sick bastards would experiment on pregnant women ? How many Japanese women have died ? Sorry to digress but... all of this is disgusting .
Same story across Europe, North America and Australasia. This mass murder of human beings on a global scale is horrific enough, but when you realise that they convinced billions of people to line up quietly and patiently to receive their death/disablement jabs, when they brainwashed the masses so thoroughly that they boasted online and posted selfies of themselves receiving the death jabs whilst condemning those who did not as 'unclean', selfish, irresponsible, even murderous, then that is truly, utterly terrifying.
Wow, yes, Australian politicians went in hard. The propaganda was no less pervasive in the UK, but it was a lot more insidious and underhand. You're right, satire is the best way to counter such psychological warfare. I hope that they could never repeat such a horrifying and awesome display of full spectrum dominance now that the 'vaccine' cat is out of the bag, but this depends on the heightened awareness of the general public and I am still not convinced that it has been sufficiently heightened, even though the vaccinated are dropping dead suddenly, here, there and everywhere. How big does a 21st century holocaust have to get before 21st century brain-deads wake up?
I learnt today that Albert Bourla is the vet who developed Improvac. I happen to know 2ml will cause a horse to drop it's foal. It's chemical castration for swine that was discovered to work in deer, horses, ponies. With a warning not to inject it into a human... This guy is Mengele with knobs on.
I am still astonished that Bourla's open admission ,on Jan 20, 2022 in a friendly interview, didn't wake people up:
'We have less safety than we would have expected from this technology'. Adding that the first two shots 'didn't work', but the 3rd would.
'Less safety' = killing and maiming! And this interview was in the MSM, and read by the vaxxers, not like Substack, which is just preaching to the choir.
The very same people who read his admission went on to have boosters. Really, they merit their fate.
But then, even without opening his mouth, Bourla has the kind of face that plainly says 'Don't trust me': people are, we must conclude, blind as well as stupid. Have they no life experience? No intuition? My dogs have had a better record in identifying crooks.......
It seems that there are many people who are concerned about overpopulation and some of whom have a goal of reducing the population by several billion people. I wouldn't be surprised if the COVID vaccines were a tool created for accomplishing that goal.
I think that it is within the realm of possibilities that it was not intentionally made to reduce the population, but just rushed through without adequate safety testing becuase of greed.
I'm not sure. But, if the COVID vaccines were created as a tool for depopulation then Gates would be one of the likely suspects of those involved in my opinion.
As Steve Kirsch says, 1 in 1,000 vaccinated people die, and the remaining 999 people don't realize it.
If I don't know the mechanism of pseudo-mRNA Shot, and assume that I received the vaccine thinking it was the same as a conventional vaccine. After 3 days, even if I get sick due to side effects, I won't notice it as a side effect of vaccination.
In Japan, the Main Stream Media does not include any stories of excess deaths.
However, small blog sites other than major SNS such as F.Bk, InstaG, and YouTube have been talking about Ivermectin since 2020, and Shot's side effects since 2021, but unless individuals are willing to look for them, they won't know. I guess.
Do you know the work of Masako Ganaha? She has been covering the poison shots in Japan, and she is the only Japanese person I have seen reporting in English about this.
She went to the United States because she wanted to join the FBI in the United States, but she returned to Japan when she learned that she could not enter the FBI unless she was an American.
She can use English to some extent. She seems a little right wing.
But given her background and abilities, I don't think she has an understanding of statistics, pseudo-mRNA, or immunity. She will focus her discourse entirely on the political side. But she's much more politically active than I am.
I don't have the vocabulary ability to read and write foreign languages, so I take my time reading English sentences slowly, or I translate them using Google Translate software.
In Japan, even in the year 2020 when there was no vaccine, some doctors treated and spread Ivermectin. Since the beginning of 2021, there have been 7-8 scholars, doctors, etc. who have preached logically the dangers of pseudo-mRNA Shot. However, except for those who are ex-engineers like me who happened to be interested in Mechanism, those who experienced medical problems and became cautious, and those who dislike instinctively horn injections because they hurt, the government and MSM propaganda ( Fear of COV19 and free vaccine, sometimes with a prize), more than 80% are inoculated. Numerous doctors are also included in this 80%.
My relative's doctor and his family had been vaccinated twice, so I warned him and finally he realized the danger.
It's a dumb piece of mathematics because the pattern of seasonal variation in deaths doesn't look anything like a sine wave. It would be better to just calculate the average difference from the trend for each week or each day of the year during the prediction interval and then add it to the trend for the subsequent years.
It's the no-virus-lite people like Mike Yeadon and Sasha Latypova and Karen Kingston who are Pfizer shills.
It looks more like a triangle wave, or at least it would look if there wasn't the bump in deaths during the warmest part of the summer.
When I used a method similar to Smalley's method so that I did a linear regression for the Swedish number of deaths from 2010 to 2014, I subtracted the linear trend from the actual deaths, and then I fitted a sine wave to the "detrended" data for 2010 to 2014. Then for 2015 to 2019, I calculated the average absolute daily difference between the projected and detrended deaths divided by the actual deaths, which gave me an error of about 3.52%.
But when I used my own method instead where I calculated the linear trend from 2010 to 2014, and then I calculated the average difference from the trend for each 366 days of the year from 2010 to 2014 using a 15-day smoothed average, and I then added the daily difference to the linear trend for the subsequent years, my average error in 2015-2019 was about 3.39%. So there's actually not that much difference, and my method could probably be improved further.
If you take the weekly number of deaths from Sweden in 2000 to 2022, you subtract the linear trend, and you calculate the average number of deaths for each week number, then I think the waveform of the excess deaths sounds more like a triangle wave than a sine wave: https://vocaroo.com/1l33w8X4p83P.
Well apparently 'lab leaks that threaten the world' are going to happen unless we impose a bio-fascist totalitarian order or something. We're basically fucked so may as well just accept it
They can just release another 'lab leak that threatens the world' and we're basically stuffed again.
Since you and andy guff are in complete and total agreement on the hypothesis you only can wonder what the hell is actually going on. Something smells fishy.
I think perhaps Professor Fukushima of University of Tokyo might be interested in this. I don't think he uses SubStack - if you aren't in contact already.
This is grim however you want to model it. Fitting sinusoids? I'll turn you into an electrical engineer, Joel! Yes, polynomial fitting is really useful if you need to get a differentiable fit, but it can get really wonky when there's no physical connection to the process, e.g., the tails fly off. Sometimes I'll use low-pass filtering, e.g., convolving with a Gaussian or "raised cosine", and dividing by a normalized convolution (replace the raw data with a 1 on every date you have a sample). Then play with the filter width.
Yes, that's why I did different orders and tried to keep as few as possible. Indeed, forecasting any further than I already have begins to get unreasonable. And reasonable is my number 1 condition!
That's why I've been following you for almost three years now. You've provided many interesting and useful looks at the data, illuminating trends. Anybody who thinks they can grab some stats toolbox and get the "answer" is likely to venture into the unreasonable very quickly. It ain't easy.
However, the major media in Japan do not report it at all.
It seems that only interested individuals like me are following.
A researcher named Suzuki of Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases, using data from only 17 regions and not disclosing any prediction formulas, says there are no excess deaths.
However, I think that it will eventually appear in the reduction of average life expectancy and life expectancy for each age group.
"By comparing graphs of the intensity of vaccination and the rate of mortality, we see that after the period of intense vaccination follows the period of higher excess mortality. Basic statistical data are confirming that COVID-19 vaccines increased the mortality rate."
Japan is one of the irrefutable places in the world to see the sheer scale of this injection holocaust.
https://twitter.com/hugh_mankind/status/1597663704044408832
They are also reeling from low fertility rates. There is no depopulation agenda though.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64373950
This is basically the end of the Japanese race as we have known it. Large proportions of the white race in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Europe will also be gone as this plays out. This is an extinction level event.
100% true. At current rates of native population decline in Scotland (where i'm from) 75% of natives are gone in 3 generations. Of course this is on current trends assuming they do not acccelerate. Same in many other countries.
See more here- https://rumble.com/v1zsro2-are-we-being-culled.html
And we if have a Super Bug that the vaccinated are vulnerable to - it will definitely accelerate. See video link: https://www.youtube.com/live/UKDhjASd7ZE?feature=share
I am partial to the binary poison theory -- immune exhaustion/OAS ... opens the door to a new manmade pathogen ... that kills like this https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous
I believe they are waiting till the point where they understand that they can no longer fend off collapse of the global economy ... and then they will unleash the pathogen.
Notice how they are not pushing the Rat Juice boosters ... no free donuts... no need ... it's mission accomplished...
Recall the final scene from Season 2 of Utopia --- he carves the chinese characters for Year of the Rabbit onto his chest (2023 is a rabbit yr).... and we are left looking at the 'binary poison' in the cannisters.... https://youtu.be/Z_O_Ly8REqk?t=145
How odd that they left us hanging - no Season 3... are we living S3?
-If you think things and bad now, you wont believe what they are going to do next you need to watch this visit....
https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FwWanXbAd7i%3ARehcPA95myCKPHUzwlOmzN9tniI&cuid=7fgccx3
No avian flu virus, nor any virus has ever been found, there is no pathogen to release, but some toxic agent is possible yes.
https://protonmagic.substack.com/p/chick-filet-virus-grips-wikistan
I saw that Leprosy is back. And of course we have the pending Super Bug that Geert Vanden Bossche makes a compelling case "will" eventually arise. Don't forget about TB that lies dormant in many of the world's populations. There are just a slew of diseases that we have not been seen since the Middle Ages that may "suddenly" start killing the vaccinated.
Leprosy is not really "back." That's just media hype. There's a good analysis at https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/hansens-psyop-saturday-august-5-2023 . From there is a link to a video which might provide more info.
Fortunately there is not Geert variant...yet.
That we know of.... It may have already been created or will be created soon. We have literally billions of functioning petri dishes working 24/7 on it right now.
He made an estimate that the "Inescapable Immune Escape Pandemic" may occur this fall. For those who have not been following Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche, he wrote a book about the Escape Pandemic. The virus is under huge immune pressure in highly vaccinated populations. The jabs create weakly bonding, not-sterilizing anti-bodies that give some but waning protection to the jabbed. mRNA viruses constantly mutate. There genome cannot get bigger as the replication errors from a single strand mRNA would fail to produce viable copies.
So we have billions of "petri dishes" infected with the virus, slowed by the weak antibodies, until a break through virus occurs. Dr. Bossche wrote that the new virulent virus will be stopped when it cannot replicate in the un-jabbed because they are immune and cannot replicate in the jabbed because they have died.
True. This killshot is designed to take us backwards; to stop us from progressing. This is not only about Big Pharma. This is a psychological warfare by something non-human. Only the third world with the highest brutalities and worse human rights record is to survive and take over the running of the world. We're advancing too much.
This kind of destruction seem to be on auto-pilot.
It's exactly what occurred to other civilizations, such as Atlantis and Europe in the Middle Ages. Atlantis was said to have been significantly more sophisticated than we are today, with human capacity deeply evolved into the supernatural. It was destroyed and sunk under water, and humanity reverted to their primordial ways. When Europe advanced further during the Middle Ages, they witnessed the birth of Islam. Islam set out to destroy Europe, eradicating traditional European civilizations and sinking it into darkness while peasants took over religion and leadership leading to the narrow-minded medival times, while Islam also establishing the largest slave trade in human history.
Under Islamic law, about 180 million Africans were enslaved and millions of Europeans in such large numbers there was not even records left of it because everything was burnt and looted. 670 million people were slaughtered throughout civilizations in 1400 years of Islamic history. India, too, had immense human progress at the time it was destroyed by Islam, which relegated them to the stone age.
Yes that is correct. This is not depop -- this is extermination
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
Yup.... Possibly the end of Western Civilization... my mind immediately travels to the ending scene in Fahrenheit 451. When the people who are still free set out to memorize the books that are banned from the world. They individually try to preserve what is left of their culture, their history and their way of life from the machine that is trying to extinguish all of it. Will anyone remember what the people of the Western Civilization built and who they were? Or will we become a lost civilization?
My friend, Lawrence, you’re too ethnocentric. It’s not only Western cultures which are in danger.
The Far East is injected up to the gills, and they don’t lick honey. Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia—just to name a few—cultures that will be obliterated should those dire predictions come true.
"My friend, Lawrence, you’re too ethnocentric."
Most ethnonationalists are...
Of course - but it is western civilization (and white people) that created the modern world… so that is my concern. Many of the countries in the far east have a mixture of MRNA and Sino-vax and will not be wiped out like the western cultures. The Sino-vax is a normal vaccine from China (it still has problems but it is not a genocide maker)
deagel.com said plan to lose 19% of pop in Japan, 65% in US. Most people won't notice the 19% loss because the pop density in the cities will still be high and the elderly are on their way out and with low fertility they have been programmed to expect it.
Thank you for calling it the MRNA Covid experiment. Our government is still paying ob/ gyn physicians and hospitals to administer the jab to pregnant women. What sick bastards would experiment on pregnant women ? How many Japanese women have died ? Sorry to digress but... all of this is disgusting .
Same story across Europe, North America and Australasia. This mass murder of human beings on a global scale is horrific enough, but when you realise that they convinced billions of people to line up quietly and patiently to receive their death/disablement jabs, when they brainwashed the masses so thoroughly that they boasted online and posted selfies of themselves receiving the death jabs whilst condemning those who did not as 'unclean', selfish, irresponsible, even murderous, then that is truly, utterly terrifying.
Thank you for talking about the brainwashing. I just wrote an article about the cognitive warfare deployed in Australia to get people to take the shots https://vicparkpetition.substack.com/p/full-spectrum-dominance-western-australias
Wow, yes, Australian politicians went in hard. The propaganda was no less pervasive in the UK, but it was a lot more insidious and underhand. You're right, satire is the best way to counter such psychological warfare. I hope that they could never repeat such a horrifying and awesome display of full spectrum dominance now that the 'vaccine' cat is out of the bag, but this depends on the heightened awareness of the general public and I am still not convinced that it has been sufficiently heightened, even though the vaccinated are dropping dead suddenly, here, there and everywhere. How big does a 21st century holocaust have to get before 21st century brain-deads wake up?
I learnt today that Albert Bourla is the vet who developed Improvac. I happen to know 2ml will cause a horse to drop it's foal. It's chemical castration for swine that was discovered to work in deer, horses, ponies. With a warning not to inject it into a human... This guy is Mengele with knobs on.
He’s a monster, but merely a minion. His handers are the DOD and CIA, and above them other shady characters and so forth.
For sure, I would love to investigate this rats nest (and get paid for it). Here this cheered me up, Christine Anderson got a standing ovation when she advised the EU is committed to holding these globalists to account, for their lies, manipulation and mandated poison. https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1687712425313808385?fbclid=IwAR0WAJ4FhrTYLagh9IiMaptA2ErRbLdCzTFgwc-yiDDUL6D1qGVxU-fwSCo
I am still astonished that Bourla's open admission ,on Jan 20, 2022 in a friendly interview, didn't wake people up:
'We have less safety than we would have expected from this technology'. Adding that the first two shots 'didn't work', but the 3rd would.
'Less safety' = killing and maiming! And this interview was in the MSM, and read by the vaxxers, not like Substack, which is just preaching to the choir.
The very same people who read his admission went on to have boosters. Really, they merit their fate.
But then, even without opening his mouth, Bourla has the kind of face that plainly says 'Don't trust me': people are, we must conclude, blind as well as stupid. Have they no life experience? No intuition? My dogs have had a better record in identifying crooks.......
Yeah right, I marvel I got to the age of 50 without realising humans are a herd animal. I saw someone on Twitter ask Alexa if there was a depopulation agenda, yes, yes there is. They wont get away with this, Christine Anderson got a standing ovation in the EU when she said this - https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1687712425313808385?fbclid=IwAR39xoQ3A4WIn2sG7HNWXXCjI_jmNq-Dtqy5W6nd7zMmkfmmL_jOpF1A4lw
It seems that there are many people who are concerned about overpopulation and some of whom have a goal of reducing the population by several billion people. I wouldn't be surprised if the COVID vaccines were a tool created for accomplishing that goal.
When you look at the past 3 years as a cull and control operation, it all fits together.
You wouldn't be surprised? It's quite obvious by now, is it?
I think that it is within the realm of possibilities that it was not intentionally made to reduce the population, but just rushed through without adequate safety testing becuase of greed.
Gates?
I'm not sure. But, if the COVID vaccines were created as a tool for depopulation then Gates would be one of the likely suspects of those involved in my opinion.
This may interest you https://vicparkpetition.substack.com/p/here-is-the-depopulation-plan-the
Thank you, Mr.Joel Smalley.
From Japan.
Japan's PMDA (US equivalent to the FDA) has a former Pfizer executive surnamed Sakamoto.
Similar to FDA, it is a revolving door personnel.
Do the Japanese people understand what is happening? Are the people talking about it? Please let us know.
As Steve Kirsch says, 1 in 1,000 vaccinated people die, and the remaining 999 people don't realize it.
If I don't know the mechanism of pseudo-mRNA Shot, and assume that I received the vaccine thinking it was the same as a conventional vaccine. After 3 days, even if I get sick due to side effects, I won't notice it as a side effect of vaccination.
In Japan, the Main Stream Media does not include any stories of excess deaths.
However, small blog sites other than major SNS such as F.Bk, InstaG, and YouTube have been talking about Ivermectin since 2020, and Shot's side effects since 2021, but unless individuals are willing to look for them, they won't know. I guess.
Do you know the work of Masako Ganaha? She has been covering the poison shots in Japan, and she is the only Japanese person I have seen reporting in English about this.
I have read her discourse.
She is a freelance journalist.
She went to the United States because she wanted to join the FBI in the United States, but she returned to Japan when she learned that she could not enter the FBI unless she was an American.
She can use English to some extent. She seems a little right wing.
But given her background and abilities, I don't think she has an understanding of statistics, pseudo-mRNA, or immunity. She will focus her discourse entirely on the political side. But she's much more politically active than I am.
I don't have the vocabulary ability to read and write foreign languages, so I take my time reading English sentences slowly, or I translate them using Google Translate software.
In Japan, even in the year 2020 when there was no vaccine, some doctors treated and spread Ivermectin. Since the beginning of 2021, there have been 7-8 scholars, doctors, etc. who have preached logically the dangers of pseudo-mRNA Shot. However, except for those who are ex-engineers like me who happened to be interested in Mechanism, those who experienced medical problems and became cautious, and those who dislike instinctively horn injections because they hurt, the government and MSM propaganda ( Fear of COV19 and free vaccine, sometimes with a prize), more than 80% are inoculated. Numerous doctors are also included in this 80%.
My relative's doctor and his family had been vaccinated twice, so I warned him and finally he realized the danger.
詳細を見る
Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/life22/dl/life22-02.pdf
life expectancy male female
2017: 78.56 85.52
2018: 79.55 86.30
2019: 80.75 86.99
2020: 81.56 87.71 Cov19 was, but no Shot
2021: 81.47 87.57 Shot began 15.Feb.2021
2022: 81.05 87.09
2023:
Institute of Infectious Diseases under Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/numberof
2019.05-2020.04: 6258 Number of All Causes of Excess Death
2020.05-2021.04: 17258
2021.05-2022.04: 92344
2022.05-2023.04: 108617
A.C. of Excess deaths rate＝108617/abt.yearly deaths（≒1.4million）
≒7.8% @ 2022.05-2023.04
Yearly Deaths
2019 1.38 million
2020 1.37
2021 1.44
2022 Not yet on Statics
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialised civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
Maurice Strong, Climate Change And The Great Reset Agenda https://principia-scientific.com/maurice-strong-climate-change-and-the-great-reset-agenda/
Track him back to Trudeau's father Pierre. He was a staunch globalist and was sent abroad to spread the good news of global cooperation.
(Shudder)
The use of sine wave to project to show that the excess deaths are abnormal is a smart piece of mathematics. Keep up the good work!
It's a dumb piece of mathematics because the pattern of seasonal variation in deaths doesn't look anything like a sine wave. It would be better to just calculate the average difference from the trend for each week or each day of the year during the prediction interval and then add it to the trend for the subsequent years.
And for example in Japan there generally seems to be more deaths in August than in June or September, which might be because people are dying because of the heat during the warmest time of the summer: https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=JPN&c=DEU&t=deaths&ct=monthly&v=2.
"doesn't look anything like a sinewave"
- links to a graph showing something that is clearly a sine wave.
Maybe the Pfizer shot induces permanent vision blindness?
That's my current running theory with all the Pfizer shills who apparently can't seem to see.
It's the no-virus-lite people like Mike Yeadon and Sasha Latypova and Karen Kingston who are Pfizer shills.
It looks more like a triangle wave, or at least it would look if there wasn't the bump in deaths during the warmest part of the summer.
When I used a method similar to Smalley's method so that I did a linear regression for the Swedish number of deaths from 2010 to 2014, I subtracted the linear trend from the actual deaths, and then I fitted a sine wave to the "detrended" data for 2010 to 2014. Then for 2015 to 2019, I calculated the average absolute daily difference between the projected and detrended deaths divided by the actual deaths, which gave me an error of about 3.52%.
But when I used my own method instead where I calculated the linear trend from 2010 to 2014, and then I calculated the average difference from the trend for each 366 days of the year from 2010 to 2014 using a 15-day smoothed average, and I then added the daily difference to the linear trend for the subsequent years, my average error in 2015-2019 was about 3.39%. So there's actually not that much difference, and my method could probably be improved further.
Here's a plot of the results: https://i.ibb.co/Krq0RQx/sine-vs-daily-diff-seasonality-comparison.png. And here's the R code: https://pastebin.com/raw/ZfgxYXUB.
Your ConOp is pretty obvious mate.
Even ONS couldn't cover up the excess deaths in the UK.
https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/ons-declares-people-die-from-symptoms
No, I won't be relying on your statistical fudging either.
"triangle wave"
Tell me you're not a statistician without telling me you're not a statistician...
If you take the weekly number of deaths from Sweden in 2000 to 2022, you subtract the linear trend, and you calculate the average number of deaths for each week number, then I think the waveform of the excess deaths sounds more like a triangle wave than a sine wave: https://vocaroo.com/1l33w8X4p83P.
t=read.csv("https://mortality.org/File/GetDocument/Public/STMF/Outputs/SWEstmfout.csv")
x=t$Total-predict(lm(t$Total~seq_along(t$Total)))
x=tapply(x,t$Week,mean)
x=2*(x-min(x))/(max(x)-min(x))-1
x=zoo::na.approx(c(rbind(x,matrix(NA,10,length(x)))))
x=rep(x,100)
l=length(x);x=x*=c(seq(0,1,,.02*l),rep(1,.96*l),seq(1,0,,.02*l))
audio::play(x)
Well apparently 'lab leaks that threaten the world' are going to happen unless we impose a bio-fascist totalitarian order or something. We're basically fucked so may as well just accept it
...or we can stop being defeatist and fight back.
They can just release another 'lab leak that threatens the world' and we're basically stuffed again.
Since you and andy guff are in complete and total agreement on the hypothesis you only can wonder what the hell is actually going on. Something smells fishy.
It's Simple:
The Willfully Vaccinated, By Definition,
Are People That Want Things Done For Them.
It Bears Repeating:
They Are People That Want Things Done For Them.
The Best Way To Change The Minds
Of People That Want Things Done For Them
Is To Expose To Them What Was Not Done For Them.
It Resets Their Perception. Start There.
I think perhaps Professor Fukushima of University of Tokyo might be interested in this. I don't think he uses SubStack - if you aren't in contact already.
https://infogame.substack.com/p/japanese-professor-files-lawsuit against Ministry of Health regarding vaccine safety and efficacy!
https://peterhalligan.substack.com/p/bombshell-from-fukushima-no-need for Occam's Razor. Billions of lives at risk from C19 injections. Puts the previous estimates of the "butchers bill" SO FAR in sharper focus
Good work! AGAIN!
Please keep up your great work, it continues to illustrate significant issues and will I believe continue to be invaluable
I agree. Changing minds is a grindingly slow business, but Joel’s work is a great help.
This is grim however you want to model it. Fitting sinusoids? I'll turn you into an electrical engineer, Joel! Yes, polynomial fitting is really useful if you need to get a differentiable fit, but it can get really wonky when there's no physical connection to the process, e.g., the tails fly off. Sometimes I'll use low-pass filtering, e.g., convolving with a Gaussian or "raised cosine", and dividing by a normalized convolution (replace the raw data with a 1 on every date you have a sample). Then play with the filter width.
Yes, that's why I did different orders and tried to keep as few as possible. Indeed, forecasting any further than I already have begins to get unreasonable. And reasonable is my number 1 condition!
"And reasonable is my number 1 condition!"
That's why I've been following you for almost three years now. You've provided many interesting and useful looks at the data, illuminating trends. Anybody who thinks they can grab some stats toolbox and get the "answer" is likely to venture into the unreasonable very quickly. It ain't easy.
Is anyone in Japan looking into this?
Yes, see other comment. It seems there are some courageous scientists in Japan, speaking out.
However, the major media in Japan do not report it at all.
It seems that only interested individuals like me are following.
A researcher named Suzuki of Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases, using data from only 17 regions and not disclosing any prediction formulas, says there are no excess deaths.
However, I think that it will eventually appear in the reduction of average life expectancy and life expectancy for each age group.
They do not report in any country, netherlands neither. Mum is the word.
They killed with covid vaccines 12M in 2021 and 10M in 2022
https://www.walshmedicalmedia.com/open-access/analysis-of-covid19-vaccination-effectiveness-120520.html
Wow
"By comparing graphs of the intensity of vaccination and the rate of mortality, we see that after the period of intense vaccination follows the period of higher excess mortality. Basic statistical data are confirming that COVID-19 vaccines increased the mortality rate."
https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=548354&post_id=135774103&utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=false&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1NjQ1NTAwNSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTM1Nzc0MTAzLCJpYXQiOjE2OTEzNTEyMjgsImV4cCI6MTY5Mzk0MzIyOCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTU0ODM1NCIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.afx1V4TJe7Y8cMYLcKEod339LpkT6e5bykBT6RVDrtY
Steve kirsch’s substack today. In the USA covid vaxx killing 1 in a thousand recipients.
It (345k) exceeds the combined death toll in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (roughly 215K)