Have you connected with Denis Rancourt yet, Joel, and are you aware of his latest excess mortality analysis putting the injection death tally at 17 million (1 death per 470 living persons)?
“We quantify the overall all-ages vDFR for the 17 countries to be (0.126 ± 0.004) %, which would imply 17.0 ± 0.5 million COVID-19 vaccine deaths worldwide, from 13.50 billion injections up to 2 September 2023. This would correspond to a mass iatrogenic event that killed (0.213 ± 0.006) % of the world population (1 death per 470 living persons, in less than 3 years), and did not measurably prevent any deaths.” (https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality)
I had previously been using Denis’s May 2023 National Citizens Inquiry presentation along with his 894-page book of exhibits to support his calculation that 13 million had been murdered by injection to date (video and associated links included in my last article: https://margaretannaalice.substack.com/p/dissident-dialogues-margaret-anna), and now that total is up to 17 million. Gob-bloody-smacking.
I'll be honest and say I haven't fully understood what you did.
However I'd like to point out that any excess mortality measure fails to capture short-term changes if it uses pre-COVID data. People were dying of all kinds of things in the COVID-era and if I want to know the impact of vaccinations, all these paths water down the relationship between vaccinations and deaths.
The best success I've had is simply using an individual reference timeframe where all the factors impacting mortality I do not care about are already present.
For Q3/2021 in the USA this is June/2021, where mortality is at a COVID-era low. When I do that and run regressions between vaccination rates and doses, I get really impressive results.
Gosh but I have *absolutely* no idea what you have been doing. I can honestly say I don't understand anything! How embarrassing to have to admit this when I see all your commentators chatting away about things I totally don't understand! I think you are looking at deaths by year of birth but I'm not sure quite why - does it matter when you were born if you die without having been ill but only from having a novel injection? Surely all the people who were healthy, took the jabs and subequently died were killed by the only new thing in their lives?
Anyway, keep up the good work - just remember to stick a little idiot's explanation at the bottom for me!
I followed EUROMOMO during the scamdemic and The numbers were always interesting to what they were saying and the reality of mortality. I have read a bit about the % that died in hospitals is what is the deviation from the norm was most apparent. Indicating that covid wasn't the cause.
Interesting that you picked my age 88 (1935). Your chart suggests that Covid itself was responsible for the peak deaths in May 2020. Presumably that would have been during lockdown.
March 2021 must have been following the first two jabs, making vaccine the main culprit?
Do you happen to have a first dose timeseries with infranational resolution for the UK?
Would be really nice if you could send me@pervaers.com one along with COVID deaths or all-cause deaths per 100k, so I can show you what I'm talking about.
Nice work Joel and interesting use of Gompertz. Wanted to add that I am obtaining a very similar excess mortality curve using a single XGBoost model on stacked data with three continuous predictors: Year of Birth, Month, and 3-Year Lag. The results appear robust. Happy to collaborate as needed.
Have you connected with Denis Rancourt yet, Joel, and are you aware of his latest excess mortality analysis putting the injection death tally at 17 million (1 death per 470 living persons)?
“We quantify the overall all-ages vDFR for the 17 countries to be (0.126 ± 0.004) %, which would imply 17.0 ± 0.5 million COVID-19 vaccine deaths worldwide, from 13.50 billion injections up to 2 September 2023. This would correspond to a mass iatrogenic event that killed (0.213 ± 0.006) % of the world population (1 death per 470 living persons, in less than 3 years), and did not measurably prevent any deaths.” (https://denisrancourt.substack.com/p/covid-19-vaccine-associated-mortality)
I had previously been using Denis’s May 2023 National Citizens Inquiry presentation along with his 894-page book of exhibits to support his calculation that 13 million had been murdered by injection to date (video and associated links included in my last article: https://margaretannaalice.substack.com/p/dissident-dialogues-margaret-anna), and now that total is up to 17 million. Gob-bloody-smacking.
I'll be honest and say I haven't fully understood what you did.
However I'd like to point out that any excess mortality measure fails to capture short-term changes if it uses pre-COVID data. People were dying of all kinds of things in the COVID-era and if I want to know the impact of vaccinations, all these paths water down the relationship between vaccinations and deaths.
The best success I've had is simply using an individual reference timeframe where all the factors impacting mortality I do not care about are already present.
For Q3/2021 in the USA this is June/2021, where mortality is at a COVID-era low. When I do that and run regressions between vaccination rates and doses, I get really impressive results.
So...
I was wondering how many months extra aging is each jab producing in terms on Gompertz risk?
If you were selling annuities you could make a financial killing by killing people off slightly earlier.
Gosh but I have *absolutely* no idea what you have been doing. I can honestly say I don't understand anything! How embarrassing to have to admit this when I see all your commentators chatting away about things I totally don't understand! I think you are looking at deaths by year of birth but I'm not sure quite why - does it matter when you were born if you die without having been ill but only from having a novel injection? Surely all the people who were healthy, took the jabs and subequently died were killed by the only new thing in their lives?
Anyway, keep up the good work - just remember to stick a little idiot's explanation at the bottom for me!
I followed EUROMOMO during the scamdemic and The numbers were always interesting to what they were saying and the reality of mortality. I have read a bit about the % that died in hospitals is what is the deviation from the norm was most apparent. Indicating that covid wasn't the cause.
Okay, after reading all articles, I finally understood.
Outstanding, Joel!
I'd like to see it side-by-side with other methods. :)
Hi Joel, Thanks for another set of analysis.
FYI I just heard that there will be a debate in Parliament on excess deaths on 20 October. We might even have more than 5 MPs in attendance.
h ttps://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1707385764240134343
Interesting that you picked my age 88 (1935). Your chart suggests that Covid itself was responsible for the peak deaths in May 2020. Presumably that would have been during lockdown.
March 2021 must have been following the first two jabs, making vaccine the main culprit?
Do you happen to have a first dose timeseries with infranational resolution for the UK?
Would be really nice if you could send me@pervaers.com one along with COVID deaths or all-cause deaths per 100k, so I can show you what I'm talking about.
Only if you have one available.
Nice work Joel and interesting use of Gompertz. Wanted to add that I am obtaining a very similar excess mortality curve using a single XGBoost model on stacked data with three continuous predictors: Year of Birth, Month, and 3-Year Lag. The results appear robust. Happy to collaborate as needed.
GREECE. TOTAL NUMBER OF EXCESS DEATHS AND TIMING OF VACCINATION ROLL OUT https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1036984280790222&set=a.129822118173114&mibextid=CHbtyg