North vs South Dakota

An empirical study of two virtually identical states. Does social distancing and mask compliance reduce COVID cases?

No.

North Dakota had more social distancing and higher mask compliance throughout the first wave of COVID.

North Dakota had slightly more cases than South Dakota overall on a population-adjusted basis. There appears to be a positive correlation between mask compliance and COVID cases. Oh.

The only time North Dakota does better than South Dakota is when Gov. Burgum mandated masks - relative mask compliance fell, as did relative social distancing.

So, there you have it. Do the opposite of what the state or federal government tells you for better outcomes¹.

1. Unless you’re in Florida.