I think most of what we thought we knew about vaccines is bogus. Very interesting to read the history of vaccines and how they were supposedly miracle cures for polio, measles et al. Most of what we grew up 'knowing' was likely false and it was ever the same story - the ordinary people knew the vaccines didn't work and caused serious harms but the establishment and doctors refused to listen.
The data is so dirty, you have to ask is it worth spending time trying to clean it up. Deaths, cause of death, cases, vaccination status are all deliberately muddied. Along comes the pandemic and a few honest data scientists like yourself try to make sense of it all, not knowing that Big Pharma has been practicing this deceit for years.
I don't really understand this article but I do know, without any chaps in lab coats fiddling on computers being around, that the covid jabs don't work to stop people catching covid, being ill with covid, passing covid on or dying from covid. How do I know this? Because nearly everyone anyone speaks to who is jabbed has had covid several times since the jabs, thinks it would have been worse if they hadn't had the jab, is continuously ill with other things (apparently a continuous headache is popular), has given up saying they took the jab to protect others, no longer thinks covid is a plague because they keep getting it and not dying. However, many people appear to be randomly dying from NotCovid which covers a multitude of things. Anecdotal evidence eh? Should I put a lab coat on? Then it would be "proper" evidence!
In a nutshell... raging inflation as a result of ultra low interest rates and easy money seeped into the overall economy over the past couple of years. The Central Banks - wanting to prevent hyperinflation were forced to raise interest rates.
As the second article explains this has destroyed the value of trillions of dollars of bonds held by banks and other entities. This is what has caused multiple banks to tip over including the behemoth Credit Suisse.
2. Despite these failures the Central Banks continued to raise rates, driving the financial system further into insolvency... and importantly ... inflation is remains untamed
3. The Central Banks have two choices -- reduce rates to take some heat off of the bond situation -- but that will only throw more fuel onto the inflation fire and could collapse the global economy (see those riots in France? That's primarily about inflation - people already are struggling to pay bills)
Continue to hold rates high - and possibly increase them (if inflation continues to rise)... driving the entire financial system further into insolvency.
They have opted for the latter -- and they will throw trillions of dollars Euros etc at the banks to try to delay the collapse. They likely already are doing that -- they will never tell us.
Jean-Claude Juncker — 'When it becomes serious, you have to lie.'
'When the situation is catastrophic, you do whatever it takes and say nothing' - Fast Eddy
4. I was discussing this situation with a good mate who an MD at a global investment bank... and he agrees - there does not appear to be any solution to this ... it must result in collapse of the system.
Because this situation is a result of a decline in affordable energy (see the first article) the men who run the world understand that when collapse arrives... there will be no putting Humpty back together again.
There is no magic want to wave the replaces the easy energy reserves that we have burned over the past 200 years. If there was - that would have been done already and we'd not be in this situation.
So what do you do when you understand that a massive global collapse is imminent .. and you are desperately trying to hold things together for as many days ... and hours as possible?
When it goes -- the power goes off - and 8B humans will be hungry and angry - they will come for the elites.. they will engage in mass murder rape cannibalism. Essentially the Gates of Hell open.
I have suggested they are exterminating us ... but exactly how. The vaccines are killing and maiming but that's hardly an extinction event.
Bossche suggests a deadly mutation will emerge.
5. Earlier this evening I picked this up on my travels around the worldwideweb:
Dr. Lee Merritt explains how mRNA Vaccines killed animals during testing and how MRNA Vaccines could be used to kill millions of people by first injecting people with the So Called Vaccine and then releasing a counterpart even years later to be killed at will - She calls this a Binary Poison (as it's in two parts)
The urgency to keep injecting people is no longer evident. All the measures to coerce people have stopped. The masks are off. Travel is to a great extent normalized. Covid deaths are not discussed much. Most people believe Covid is done.
Let me throw this out there... the goal all along was to inject as many people as possible.... they tried everything to convince people to inject... but at a certain point you start to push on a string...
Most people who have not injected now will never inject. There is nothing the PR Team can do to convince someone like me to inject. I am willing to die if someone tried to force me.
Ok so nearly 6B have agreed to inject... out of 8... that's a damn good result all things considered.
No point in pushing the string ...
6. What if the plan is ... when they see that they can no longer hold the financial system together much longer --- they release a second virus --- that is deadly to everyone who has injected at least one shot? And it rips through there defenceless immune system killing all of them.
7. The unvaxxed will obviously panic as they see people dying like flies around them. CNNBBC will tell them to lockdown in their homes -- 24 hour martial law --- images of empty closed super markets -- STAY HOME! -- snipers shooting anyone who ventures out.
8. Wait for the food trucks - they are coming .... STAY HOME! But they never come ... and nobody goes outside because everyone will believe there is black death out there now ... off the charts fear... they will wait ... and wait.. and slowly starve to death.
9. Perhaps the trucks will circulate -- but will provide no food rather they will distribute end of life meds e.g. Fentanyl.
10. 8 Billion die peacefully. Next to no murder rape or cannibalism.
The financial system is without a doubt on borrowed time. Perhaps all that remains to be done is give the final word.
I note that our PM Ardern stepped down recently. Haven't heard a peep out of her since... is she having a bit of family time or perhaps a vacation ... using the final months to enjoy life.
Thanks Joel. Only good to have come out of this scamdemic? Massively raised awareness that ALL "vaccines" are a fraud, perpetrated by the evil megapharmas. Newborn & infant injections are the feedstock for megapharmas future evil profits from an increasingly ill population.
"From 1955 to 1963, an estimated 10-30% of polio vaccines administered in the US were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40). The virus came from monkey kidney cell cultures used to make polio vaccines at that time."
"Because of research done with SV40 in animal models, there has been some concern that the virus could cause cancer in humans."
"In 1976 there was a small increased risk of a serious neurological disorder called Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) following vaccination with a swine flu vaccine."
"The Institute of Medicine (IOM) conducted a thorough scientific reviewexternal icon of this issue in 2003 and concluded that people who received the 1976 swine influenza vaccine had an increased risk for developing GBS."
The word in the title of this substack that spoke to me was "observational studies" for reasons that seem, well, obvious to anyone who has done enough data analysis. Observational studies are incapable of providing bias-free proof, and maybe even indications, of causation. So the bias is baked-in to the outcome. Ergo, it is no surprise that the vaccine efficacy is a crapshoot. The purpose of the clinical trials is to remove the inherent errors possible in observational studies. Of course, Pfizer is also expert in misusing RCTs! Am I confused, Joel?
Hey Joel, it would certainly be worth applying the bias analysis to the CDC Vaccine tracker page (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status) that has clearly shown the case window bias embedded in their criteria, as well as the sourcing of most of their statistics from only 5 States with data collection methodology silimilar to the flaws pointed out by Prof Fenton.
The illustrious authors have an important point. However, stepping back a notch, be clear that effectiveness could only ever be modeled with an invalid model. With no controls the model is skewered by the corrupt initial efficacy data and by the nonsensical "case" numbers, death with and of. It's literally garbage in garbage out. The only valid metric now seems temporal relationships and excess death and disease above the mean. Causality is assumed (a consequence of the experimental intervention) as it should be, until proved otherwise.
Public Health England (PHE) state their modelling of 'vaccine effectiveness'
“Vaccination rates in the model are based on the actual number of doses administered, and the vaccine is assumed to reduce susceptibility to COVID-19 as well as mortality once infected.”
“To infer the impact of vaccination, the model was fitted to both ONS [Office of National Statistics] prevalence and daily COVID-19 mortality data in England, resulting in posterior samples for a range of epidemiological parameters. The posterior samples were then used to simulate the number of infections and deaths that would have occurred without vaccination. Finally, the total impact was calculated by comparing the infection and mortality estimates with vaccination versus the simulated outcomes without vaccination.”
The modeling method of PHE leaves the question of model validity open to debate, which leaves the decisions based on modeling equally open to debate. Yet it is a debate that is consistently stifled.
"4 killed for every 3 saved" was the overall mortality impact of mRNA vaccines in the two "gold standard" randomized double-blind clinical trials (the ONLY studies which AVOID all of the substantial biases in observational vaccine studies). The separate Pfizer and Moderna "gold standard" randomized clinical trials BOTH had a 15-17% increase in non-COVID deaths, and specifically a 40-50% increase in cardiovascular-related deaths, with vaccine versus placebo.
Doesn't it ever bother anyone that all of the "mRNA vaccines save lives" observational studies and data are NOT CONSISTENT with the randomized clinical trial mortality data?
I think most of what we thought we knew about vaccines is bogus. Very interesting to read the history of vaccines and how they were supposedly miracle cures for polio, measles et al. Most of what we grew up 'knowing' was likely false and it was ever the same story - the ordinary people knew the vaccines didn't work and caused serious harms but the establishment and doctors refused to listen.
The data is so dirty, you have to ask is it worth spending time trying to clean it up. Deaths, cause of death, cases, vaccination status are all deliberately muddied. Along comes the pandemic and a few honest data scientists like yourself try to make sense of it all, not knowing that Big Pharma has been practicing this deceit for years.
I don't really understand this article but I do know, without any chaps in lab coats fiddling on computers being around, that the covid jabs don't work to stop people catching covid, being ill with covid, passing covid on or dying from covid. How do I know this? Because nearly everyone anyone speaks to who is jabbed has had covid several times since the jabs, thinks it would have been worse if they hadn't had the jab, is continuously ill with other things (apparently a continuous headache is popular), has given up saying they took the jab to protect others, no longer thinks covid is a plague because they keep getting it and not dying. However, many people appear to be randomly dying from NotCovid which covers a multitude of things. Anecdotal evidence eh? Should I put a lab coat on? Then it would be "proper" evidence!
Great article, really clear and easy to follow, with good suggestions about data and publications. Doshi was an editor of BMJ?
Edit. I redact my previous praise for the Doshie paper after reading Norman Fenton and Martin Neils critique.
■■■■■■■■■■■, lol. But no, for real. I agree with Norman and Martin more.
Also Healthy User Bias:
https://open.substack.com/pub/roundingtheearth/p/how-does-the-hub-get-missed-what?r=gse79&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Pleased to see Kaiser Fung joining the fray. I read "Numbers Rule Your World" some years ago, and can recommend it.
Off topic but potentially massive.
1. The global economy is most definitely on the precipice:
THE ANATOMY OF A SUPER-BUST
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2023/03/13/251-the-everything-crisis/
The Everything Bubble and Global Bankruptcy
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-everything-bubble-and-global.html
In a nutshell... raging inflation as a result of ultra low interest rates and easy money seeped into the overall economy over the past couple of years. The Central Banks - wanting to prevent hyperinflation were forced to raise interest rates.
As the second article explains this has destroyed the value of trillions of dollars of bonds held by banks and other entities. This is what has caused multiple banks to tip over including the behemoth Credit Suisse.
2. Despite these failures the Central Banks continued to raise rates, driving the financial system further into insolvency... and importantly ... inflation is remains untamed
UK economy: headline inflation rises to 10.4%
https://www.fxmag.com/forex/uk-economy-headline-inflation-rises-to-10-4-core-prices-added-0-4
3. The Central Banks have two choices -- reduce rates to take some heat off of the bond situation -- but that will only throw more fuel onto the inflation fire and could collapse the global economy (see those riots in France? That's primarily about inflation - people already are struggling to pay bills)
Continue to hold rates high - and possibly increase them (if inflation continues to rise)... driving the entire financial system further into insolvency.
They have opted for the latter -- and they will throw trillions of dollars Euros etc at the banks to try to delay the collapse. They likely already are doing that -- they will never tell us.
Jean-Claude Juncker — 'When it becomes serious, you have to lie.'
'When the situation is catastrophic, you do whatever it takes and say nothing' - Fast Eddy
4. I was discussing this situation with a good mate who an MD at a global investment bank... and he agrees - there does not appear to be any solution to this ... it must result in collapse of the system.
Because this situation is a result of a decline in affordable energy (see the first article) the men who run the world understand that when collapse arrives... there will be no putting Humpty back together again.
There is no magic want to wave the replaces the easy energy reserves that we have burned over the past 200 years. If there was - that would have been done already and we'd not be in this situation.
So what do you do when you understand that a massive global collapse is imminent .. and you are desperately trying to hold things together for as many days ... and hours as possible?
When it goes -- the power goes off - and 8B humans will be hungry and angry - they will come for the elites.. they will engage in mass murder rape cannibalism. Essentially the Gates of Hell open.
I have suggested they are exterminating us ... but exactly how. The vaccines are killing and maiming but that's hardly an extinction event.
Bossche suggests a deadly mutation will emerge.
5. Earlier this evening I picked this up on my travels around the worldwideweb:
Dr. Lee Merritt explains how mRNA Vaccines killed animals during testing and how MRNA Vaccines could be used to kill millions of people by first injecting people with the So Called Vaccine and then releasing a counterpart even years later to be killed at will - She calls this a Binary Poison (as it's in two parts)
https://humansarefree.com/2021/01/dr-lee-merritt-animal-studies-mrna-technology-all-animals-died.html
The urgency to keep injecting people is no longer evident. All the measures to coerce people have stopped. The masks are off. Travel is to a great extent normalized. Covid deaths are not discussed much. Most people believe Covid is done.
Let me throw this out there... the goal all along was to inject as many people as possible.... they tried everything to convince people to inject... but at a certain point you start to push on a string...
Most people who have not injected now will never inject. There is nothing the PR Team can do to convince someone like me to inject. I am willing to die if someone tried to force me.
Ok so nearly 6B have agreed to inject... out of 8... that's a damn good result all things considered.
No point in pushing the string ...
6. What if the plan is ... when they see that they can no longer hold the financial system together much longer --- they release a second virus --- that is deadly to everyone who has injected at least one shot? And it rips through there defenceless immune system killing all of them.
7. The unvaxxed will obviously panic as they see people dying like flies around them. CNNBBC will tell them to lockdown in their homes -- 24 hour martial law --- images of empty closed super markets -- STAY HOME! -- snipers shooting anyone who ventures out.
8. Wait for the food trucks - they are coming .... STAY HOME! But they never come ... and nobody goes outside because everyone will believe there is black death out there now ... off the charts fear... they will wait ... and wait.. and slowly starve to death.
9. Perhaps the trucks will circulate -- but will provide no food rather they will distribute end of life meds e.g. Fentanyl.
10. 8 Billion die peacefully. Next to no murder rape or cannibalism.
The financial system is without a doubt on borrowed time. Perhaps all that remains to be done is give the final word.
I note that our PM Ardern stepped down recently. Haven't heard a peep out of her since... is she having a bit of family time or perhaps a vacation ... using the final months to enjoy life.
Interesting - anyone more scientifically minded on this subject feel free to enlighten me on the technical bits in case I understand them wrong:
https://awkwardgit.substack.com/p/a-paper-from-06th-january-2016
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1517719113
Video pointing out the interesting bits:
https://stateofthenation.co/?p=162721
ACE2 receptors mentioned - yep.
Replication in the human primary airways - yep.
WIV1-CoV and similar viruses poised to jump to humans - yep.
Plan to do more experimenting with the WIV1-CoV samples if they can get funding - yep.
Future threat needing study - yep.
SARS-CoV clone used as template - yep.
Affects brain, liver, kidneys, gastro-intestional tract - yep.
And on and on and on all of which sound weirdly familiar recently.
I also notice the date of publication was January 06th 2016.
January 06th?
Wasn't that date significant a few years ago by any chance?
Thanks Joel. Only good to have come out of this scamdemic? Massively raised awareness that ALL "vaccines" are a fraud, perpetrated by the evil megapharmas. Newborn & infant injections are the feedstock for megapharmas future evil profits from an increasingly ill population.
Just a continuation of what's been going on in the drug industry.
Right from the CDC site:
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.html
"From 1955 to 1963, an estimated 10-30% of polio vaccines administered in the US were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40). The virus came from monkey kidney cell cultures used to make polio vaccines at that time."
"Because of research done with SV40 in animal models, there has been some concern that the virus could cause cancer in humans."
"In 1976 there was a small increased risk of a serious neurological disorder called Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) following vaccination with a swine flu vaccine."
"The Institute of Medicine (IOM) conducted a thorough scientific reviewexternal icon of this issue in 2003 and concluded that people who received the 1976 swine influenza vaccine had an increased risk for developing GBS."
Hepatitis B and Multiple Sclerosis link
And on and on.
The word in the title of this substack that spoke to me was "observational studies" for reasons that seem, well, obvious to anyone who has done enough data analysis. Observational studies are incapable of providing bias-free proof, and maybe even indications, of causation. So the bias is baked-in to the outcome. Ergo, it is no surprise that the vaccine efficacy is a crapshoot. The purpose of the clinical trials is to remove the inherent errors possible in observational studies. Of course, Pfizer is also expert in misusing RCTs! Am I confused, Joel?
2 doses + 13 days = unvaccinated
Says it all really.
Hey Joel, it would certainly be worth applying the bias analysis to the CDC Vaccine tracker page (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status) that has clearly shown the case window bias embedded in their criteria, as well as the sourcing of most of their statistics from only 5 States with data collection methodology silimilar to the flaws pointed out by Prof Fenton.
The illustrious authors have an important point. However, stepping back a notch, be clear that effectiveness could only ever be modeled with an invalid model. With no controls the model is skewered by the corrupt initial efficacy data and by the nonsensical "case" numbers, death with and of. It's literally garbage in garbage out. The only valid metric now seems temporal relationships and excess death and disease above the mean. Causality is assumed (a consequence of the experimental intervention) as it should be, until proved otherwise.
Public Health England (PHE) state their modelling of 'vaccine effectiveness'
“Vaccination rates in the model are based on the actual number of doses administered, and the vaccine is assumed to reduce susceptibility to COVID-19 as well as mortality once infected.”
“To infer the impact of vaccination, the model was fitted to both ONS [Office of National Statistics] prevalence and daily COVID-19 mortality data in England, resulting in posterior samples for a range of epidemiological parameters. The posterior samples were then used to simulate the number of infections and deaths that would have occurred without vaccination. Finally, the total impact was calculated by comparing the infection and mortality estimates with vaccination versus the simulated outcomes without vaccination.”
The modeling method of PHE leaves the question of model validity open to debate, which leaves the decisions based on modeling equally open to debate. Yet it is a debate that is consistently stifled.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997495/Impact_of_COVID-19_vaccine_on_infection_and_mortality.pdf
"4 killed for every 3 saved" was the overall mortality impact of mRNA vaccines in the two "gold standard" randomized double-blind clinical trials (the ONLY studies which AVOID all of the substantial biases in observational vaccine studies). The separate Pfizer and Moderna "gold standard" randomized clinical trials BOTH had a 15-17% increase in non-COVID deaths, and specifically a 40-50% increase in cardiovascular-related deaths, with vaccine versus placebo.
Pfizer: https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2110345/suppl_file/nejmoa2110345_appendix.pdf – Table S4
Moderna: https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017/suppl_file/nejmoa2113017_appendix.pdf – Table S26
Doesn't it ever bother anyone that all of the "mRNA vaccines save lives" observational studies and data are NOT CONSISTENT with the randomized clinical trial mortality data?