The Science™ vs science - evidence from the Northern Mariana Islands

Data from the Northern Mariana Islands demonstrates once again that the COVID vaccine causes COVID deaths as well as fatal adverse events.

I wasn’t planning on writing this.

I was waiting for the result of an FOI request¹ from the ONS so that I could write a definitive piece on the lethality of the COVID vaccine, the data fraud they have committed, as well as a nice hit piece on The Science™ Editor of the Financial Times (Tom Whipple) who seems to spend more time slagging off my good friends at HART (using my old data analyses) than he actually does investigating science.

Inevitably though, the ONS has declined my request (maintaining my 100% record with him for FOI denials) with the following reason:

In order to fulfil this request, we would need to use a high level of statistical skill and judgement including complex data linkage and analysis of the mortality data and vaccinations data from the NIMS in order to create a bespoke analysis or table. Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Public Authorities are not obligated to create information in order to respond to requests. We therefore consider this to be information not held.

Sure. This is the kind of stuff people like me and those I work with could do in a couple of hours but I guess one word of truth is that the ONS lacks a high level of statistical skill and judgement… And we’ll just leave it at that. It’s not like anyone’s life depends on it or anything, is it Tom?

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Instead, we’re going to have to make do with the Northern Mariana Islands. Not heard of them? Nope, me neither. Before today, of course.

My friend, Prof. Norman Fenton is on the telly this evening so I was assisting him with a bit of research. He wanted to be sure he had the most up-to-date correct data from VAERS, the US vaccine adverse event reporting system.

Whilst preparing the report, I noticed that the Northern Mariana Islands had reported 11 deaths to VAERS. Given that I’d never heard of them, logically I assumed that they must have a very small population, in which case 11 deaths might actually be quite a significant number.

Sure enough, there are about 53k inhabitants of these islands (depending on your source), an unincorporated territory and commonwealth of the United States, just north of Guam in the Western Pacific (Figure 1).

Figure 1

My forecast would have been closer to 51k but I have derived the 53k number from the official vaccination data (Figure 2). It doesn’t make much difference to what follows.

Figure 2

They started vaccinating in late December 2020 like the rest of the States and you can see they’ve done a remarkably good job at jabbing. Not so much boosting, though. Do you wonder why, Tom? All that anti-vax, conspiracy nonsense found its way all the way over there I can her you opine?

Or maybe it’s because they started seeing their loved ones literally start dropping down dead? If you did any proper investigating, you could be reporting this instead of me because, you know, I’m just a “nobody”, after all?

Anyway, I’ll try not to let our feud with Tom get in the way of the analysis. Take note of the booster rollout though, mid-October 2021. Remember that date!

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Quick bit of forecasting… I’m expecting a death rate in 2021 of around 5.4 per 1,000 based on a simple, linear regression of the CIA World Factbook reported death rates for the last 20 years (Figure 3).

Figure 4

Using that rate and our population estimates from earlier, I’m expecting around 290 deaths in 2021 (Figure 5).

Figure 5

You’ll be pleased to know that’s the extent of the modelling in this analysis. Keeping it simple for Tom, after all. Now, onto some empirical analysis.

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I dug a bit deeper into the 11 VAERS deaths and it turns out only 9 are due to the COVID-19 vaccine. How can I be so confident? I was paying attention when my friend Dr Jessica Rose was explaining about temporal proximity and other Bradford Hill criteria². Unlike the official COVID stats, I can also determine that deaths from drowning and gunshot wounds are probably not likely to be caused by the vaccine (Figure 6).

Figure 6

Days to onset is from first dose so can be a bit misleading when the deceased succumbed shortly after the second dose. So, if you average the days from vaccination to death for the 7 who only survived dose one, you get just 22.

The average age of all 9 deceased to died of causes that we (I mean those of us that have done a substantial amount of research and collaboration on the subject) know to be a significant adverse event risk of the COVID vaccine - sudden cardiac and respiratory arrest (biological plausibility and consistency), is 63 (ranging 33 to 80). What is that? About 20 years lower than the average age of COVID death, right? Hmmm…

From Figure 2, we know about 55% of the population had had at least one dose of the vaccine by the time the deaths had finished in July 2021, i.e. around 29,500. So, 9 deaths represents a vaccine fatality rate (VFR) of 0.03%.

According to The Lancet, the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID itself ranges between 0.083% and 8.01% for 33 to 80 year olds³. Well, these look like reasonable odds then don’t they? Take your risk with the vaccine rather than the disease?

Alas, that would be somewhat naïve. First off, we don’t compare the VFR with the IFR! You have to compare the VFR with the number of lives saved by the vaccine and here we move into somewhat murkier waters.

As hard as we have tried (and oh, have we tried), trying to get the real vaccine efficacy (VE) in terms of reducing mortality is really hard (not least because they won’t release the data to us - see above!).

Notwithstanding that issue, we also have to consider the other elephant in the room - the fact that everywhere you go, COVID itself goes up, not down in the presence of the vaccine.

This is the crux of dear Tom’s beef, that we dare to suggest that the vaccine might actually be causing the COVID deaths, thereby inflating the IFR against which we should be comparing the VE! (Actually, what I said way back at the start of 2021 was that there were potential signals that the public health authorities really ought to investigate just to be sure they were actually acting in the interests of public health).

Since then, of course, the science (lowercase “s”, no trademark), has come out with overwhelming evidence explaining why the vaccinated catch and spread the disease more than the unvaccinated and are also the most likely variant factories. Regular readers will know to refer to Dr Paul Alexander, Dr Vanden Bossche, etc. for the deep dives. Just take a look at who I read on Substack - you’ll find plenty of good source material to back it up.

Or just take a look at any of the bulletins that the public health authorities are still putting out comparing outcomes between different vaccine-status cohorts. Even with all the number fudging, they can’t hide the truth any more (unless they literally just stop publishing the data like Scotland recently did, following Alberta’s lead).

Which brings us nicely full circle to the Northern Mariana Islands. Remember I said to keep in mind the date when they started boosting? Now take a look at COVID deaths on the islands (Figure 7).

Figure 7

Nothing to see here, is there, Tom? Just another one of those coincidences. Just like all the sudden cardiac arrests in the last year or so?

Could there be another explanation why COVID deaths in this tiny range of islands explodes literally a couple of weeks after they start boosting just like so many other countries all over the world? Consideration of alternative explanations. Here they are on a map (Figure 8).

Figure 8

Conversely, if you add the 28 COVID deaths that occurred after the vaccination program started (compared to just 2 before it) to the 9 vaccine deaths, they represent almost 13% of all the deaths that I estimated above for 2021.

Worthy of further investigation or just another one for MSM to sweep under the carpet and work on some more character assassinations instead?

1. https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/days_between_covid_vaccination_a#incoming-1989437

2. My causation talk is ready!

3. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02867-1/fulltext