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M. Dowrick's avatar

Joel Smalley, how many times can I say it, you are awesome. Your opening paragraphs are beyond appreciated by so many of us. Pointing out just the complete lack of concern of the ONS, as it relates to people’s lives is perhaps something the ONS might want to take a look at. And mentioning the Financial Times reporter whose goal in life appears to be to discredit the HART Group, who work diligently to provide all of us accurate, scientific covid data presented with integrity. It would be a pleasure to find just one msm jounalist doing the same.

Now promise to read about the Northern Mariana Islands.💕

,

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Joel Smalley's avatar

Thank you, May Ann!

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Dr Mike Yeadon's avatar

Nice detective work. When arriving at an estimate for VFR of 0.03%, had you already taken into account the underreporting factor in VAERS?

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Joel Smalley's avatar

No. Actually for this one, I'm assuming that they were all reported. Given the small number of deaths on the islands, I think they probably reported all the ones that they genuinely suspected were vax related, even the drowning and the gunshot cases. Given its distinctly idiosyncratic qualities I don't think we should infer too much from the VFR with respect to other countries.

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Dr Mike Yeadon's avatar

Fair enough, Joel & all! I can’t argue against your reasoning.

Cheers

Mike

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Sophocles's avatar

Drowning could be, if someone had syncope in the bath. Or while swimming or surfing. Which seems like it would be a regular activity in a region like this.

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M. Dowrick's avatar

Dr Mike Yeadon and Joel Smalley on the same page. My day is complete.💕💕💕

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Dr Mike Yeadon's avatar

We used to collaborate a lot when (whisper it) we both suspected that the sudden & geographically isolated yet temporally synchronised pulse of “cases” & deaths were actually c19 vaccine injuries & deaths.

It was a horrifying revelation.

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Fast Eddy's avatar

Spread this far and wide - NZ undercover cops burning the NZ protester tents https://www.tiktok.com/@jakevsthestate/video/7071401414202903809

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John (jc) Comeau's avatar

Obviously he did not. 9/29500=.0003. But the URF isn't likely consistent across all countries, and in particular a small island country that bothered reporting at all would presumably be more diligent about it than the US. Another thing to consider is that if Steve Kirsch's estimate of around 40 is correct, and if it *were* universal, 9*40=360 vaccine deaths out of a 53K population would *really* stick out.

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Joel Smalley's avatar

Exactly.

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PhilH's avatar

John, nothing is obvious in this sad business. I’m sure you didn’t mean for your comment to sound snarky.

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KeithH's avatar

Joel, you are a true star of this covid debacle. The first to question jab related consequences and continuing to do so. It’s great to see you on the right side of science and pushing the charlatans aside. Keep up the great work.

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Joel Smalley's avatar

Thank you, Keith. I'm doing it for you!

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Rajesh's avatar

Very good points (again) Joel. I wouldn't worry about this Tom fellow, he's laid his bed, as many in academia and the civil service have.

I don't know if you've come across Edward Dowd (former Blackrock Fund Manager) who's been doing the podcast/video interview rounds in the US. He's looked into the Pfizer medical fraud case and delving into 4th Quarter reports from Life Insurers who are paying out substantially over on disabilities and deaths. I've been forwarding his work:

https://journal.rajeshtaylor.com/life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-up-40-among-those-aged-18-64-in-indiana/

And here:

https://journal.rajeshtaylor.com/further-disturbing-rates-of-disability-mortality-in-life-insurance-data-since-covid-vaccine-rollout/

He has strong connections to Wall St – who is listening to him. (Explains why certain big Pharma stocks are tanking). He expects Moderna to go to zero. Let me know if I can help you in any way. Keep up the good fight.

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Kiwimudcrab (aka Steve Murray)'s avatar

Thanks Joel. Did you see the recent piece from Monica Hughes on the all-cause, excess mortality in NZ? With only 63 reported Covid deaths in 2 years, there were 2000 excess deaths that closely conform to the vax rollout from about Aug 21. Somehow, somewhere, a lot of explanation is required!

https://themariachiyears.substack.com/p/2000-extra-all-cause-deaths-associated

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Eucatastrophe2021's avatar

Another excellent analysis. Thank you!

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Patrick Soto's avatar

Awesome work mate !

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Patrick Soto's avatar

Sorry I do not comment on your posts often. I do read most of them and find them extremely illuminating. Yourself and "John Dee" are probably my main 2 sources of information when it come to navigating the Covid bullshit. In fact, I think you were the first person I heard questioning official Covid back in early 2020. This was on an interview with Dan Gregory. I did not know you at the time but everything you said made sooo much sense I immediately realised everything you were saying was almost certainly true. 2 years on and almost everything you said back then has come true. And everything you said after that as well of course...haha...anyway, I imagine it must be hard at times having to deal with all of these so called experts who want to discredit and smear you all the time but don't forget there are thousands of people like me who can see through this bullshit and know you are just telling the truth. And for which of course we are all extremely thankful. Keep up the good work my man!!

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JustSayNoThanks's avatar

A big thank you for all of your hard work!

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InfoHog's avatar

"deaths from drowning and gunshot wounds are probably not likely to be caused by the vaccine"

- Someone stroking out or having chest pain in the water might reduce the likelihood of them getting out of it, though, would it not. And after someone drowned, the physician will probably write "drowning" if no obvious bullet wounds or such are visible (I guess).

So there may actually be cases where someone apparently drowned, but really the jab got him, no?

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Joel Smalley's avatar

Yes, I did consider this but no need to provide anything remotely that the vaccine harm deniers could target?

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InfoHog's avatar

IDK. I don't like seeing Gray Tony getting away with saying stuff like "VAERS overreports because car accidents, or drowning", where actually both could be connected with it, and then he also doesn't explain how come that after 30 years, reporting % of car accidents connected to a product rise so madly... I'd much prefer to see him whipped for saying that ;) But the fact he got away with it on TV and the general perceptions probably means his audience doesn't listen to close or *thinks* for a second or two.

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Al c's avatar

The drowning death more likely to be attributed to climate change - you know, rising sea levels and so on. The gunshot wound to opening energy bills….

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Lon Guyland's avatar

They’re all Trump’s fault.

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Al c's avatar

Great point. How could I have thought otherwise?!

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Rajesh's avatar

You know global warming killed Shane Warne too right.. Not his 4 jabs.

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Lon Guyland's avatar

I was shocked to hear that. I lived in Australia when he was still playing. I know a lot of people looked up to him.

Damn CO2

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Rajesh's avatar

Its best to wait for the autopsy report I guess. It could be throwing the duvet over too hard, football referee's whistles blown too hard or moving the clock forward... last year.

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Bandit's avatar

My question concerning the gunshot wound, was it self inflicted? The person could have gotten terrible news about say, a fast growing cancer that had just appeared and they were to die a painful death in a few months. Why wait? Take yourself out. Your family will be devastated either way, but watching someone deteriorate day-by-day can really take it out of you.

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Anette Stahel's avatar

Thank you dr Smalley for another deeply insightful and truly important article! You deserve credit not only for being very observant, but also for acting on your observations in a skilled way that greatly serves mankind.

As for the vaccine fatality rate comparison, here's the way I see it. Ever since the vaccine came, I've been very critical of the way public health authorities the world over compare vaccine injury rates to covid injury rates, because it's simply a ludicrous comparison. I've even had several post-publication peer reviews published about it. How come more people haven't objected to this is beyond me.

But anyways. Obviously, you cannot compare vaccine injury rates to covid injury rates, because when you choose to get vaccinated, it's 100% certain that you get "infected" (with viral RNA), while when you choose to abstain from the vaccine, it's definitely not 100% certain that you get infected (with the virus). In fact, it's far from it; the infection rates I've seen in studies from various countries have ranged between 0.3% (my homeland Sweden) and 14.3% (USA).

Thus, what the vaccine injury rates among vaccinees should be compared to, are the covid injury rates among unvaccinated individuals. And if we look at this specific case, the Northern Mariana Islands during january-july 2021, and begin with the vaccine death injury rate, you correctly nailed it down to 0.03%.

However, we don't have to move one step outside of your article to find the correct figure with which to compare that number, as we actually find the covid death injury rate among unvaccinated on the islands during january-july with help from Figure 7. We can see that during that period, two individuals died with covid.

Now let's say that both of these persons were unvaccinated. If we'd investigate this more, I'm sure we'd discover they weren't, but let's indulge our critics here and say they were. So, those two constitute the numerator in our division, now let's look at the correct denominator.

Again, we don't have to take a single step outside of our article in order to find that figure. According to your own numbers, in july 53 573-29 500=24 073 individuals on the islands were unvaccinated. That gives us a covid death injury rate among the unvaccinated of 0.008%.

I e, on the Northern Mariana Islands (up until the booster launch when things got even worse for the vaccinated) you were at least 3.75 times more likely to die a spike protein derived death if you chose to get vaccinated, as opposed to if you chose to abstain! I wonder what CDC would say about that fetchy risk-benefit analysis?

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Anette Stahel's avatar

By the way, I checked something up today when a colleague of mine suggested that maybe you wanted to compare the vaccine mortality rate in Northern Mariana to an area/period with a greater spread of infection than that of the islands. So, I looked at my homeland Sweden for as long a period as you analyzed for the reported Northern Mariana vaccine deaths, i e six months, and chose a stage with as high a spread of infection as possible during the time when everyone in our country was unvaccinated, which was 27 June 2020 - 26 December 2021.

What I found was the following: The number of unvaccinated people in Sweden on December 26, 2021 was 10859813 (https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkning/befolkningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/, https://www.skatteverket.se/omoss/press/nyheter/2022/nyheter/612566samordningsnummerforklarasvilande.5.339cd9fe17d1714c07748da.html and https://www.svd.se/m-information-om-papperslosa-maste-delas).

27 June 2020 - 26 December 2020, 2999 unvaccinated people died of covid-19 in Sweden (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden). And 2999/10859813 = 0.000276, that is, covid mortality for the unvaccinated in Sweden during that period was 0.028%. What, then, was the exact vaccine mortality rate for Northern Mariana, that you found? Well, it was actually 0.031%, i e 10% HIGHER than the covid mortality rate in Sweden during this period with a very high spread of infection!

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Anette Stahel's avatar

I wanted to comment on the booster vaccine death effect also. So, covid-19 began spreading across the Northern Mariana Islands in early 2020. In April the first covid deaths occured, they were two. Then no one died of covid at all for 18 months. However, during this period, nine people died of the covid vaccine, which began being injected there at the end of 2020.

Anyway, in the middle of October 2021, the booster was launched. And suddenly people started to die left and right in covid, 28 of them to be exact. No vaccine deaths were reported to VAERS then, but right after the booster launch, people began dying like flies. We've seen this pattern in countless other countries as well, although not only with the booster but with the first and second doses also. Your own eye-opening video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR-pqrMWu3E shows striking examples of this. So to me, it's undeniable: These are vaccine-induced covid deaths, which in theory should be reported to the adverse event reporting systems, because they're vaccine side effects.

The vaccine probably causes covid death in several different ways. One is via the imbalance effect, the immune system's prioritization of injection over infection, which Swedish pandemic analyst Bo Engwall and molecular cell biologist Ann-Cathrin Engwall have brought to light. Here's a piece on the Israel booster death effect that Bo got published in the BMJ, which parallels your Northern Mariana article: https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2297/rr-0.

But we also have phenomena such as Antibody Dependent Enhancement and Immune Reprogramming. From https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/:

"Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) may be involved in the clinical observation of increased severity of symptoms associated with early high levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in patients. (..) These models place increased emphasis on the importance of developing safe SARS-CoV-2 T cell vaccines that are not dependent upon antibodies."

And from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3839624:

"In conclusion, the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine induces complex functional reprogramming of innate immune responses, which should be considered in the development and use of this new class of vaccines."

Then I noticed something interesting when reading about different covid tests the other day. Vaccination can cause false positive answers to antibody tests, that's well known, but antigen and PCR tests shouldn't be affected by the vaccine, see for example https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2021/02/26/could-vaccination-cause-me-to-test-positive-for-covid-19/. However, when I read the passage with the explanation of why, I became quite thoughtful, to say the least:

"mRNA-based vaccines will not cause a covid-19 PCR test to be positive. Similarly, these vaccines will not cause rapid antigen tests to be positive, since the proteins produced following vaccination are not expressed in the respiratory (i e, nasal) tract, which is sampled for covid-19 PCR or antigen testing."

Well, personally I'am far from sure that vaccine-produced spike proteins are such champs at staying away from the nasal tract... So, what if someone develops vaccine side effects, takes a test which shows positive, then gets worse and eventually dies due to the injuries the vaccine has caused? Why, he gets a covid label on his toe tag in the morgue, even though his death was caused by a covid vaccine side effect!

Even if someone dies from a cardiac arrest, he'll be labelled a covid victim in such a case. And with more of virus going around, more people go test themselves. Remember that the early signs of myocarditis are flu-like symptoms. I'd say those nine VAERS reported cardiac arrest victims could've ended up in the covid box too, had they taken the test before their death (which I doubt they did).

The problem is, of course, that it's very difficult to tell a vaccine-related covid death from a vaccine-unrelated.

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Leo Biddle's avatar

Excellent as always. It did occur to me that if you had a heart attack whilst swimming you'd be at much higher risk of subsequently drowning; but let's not split hairs : )

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David AuBuchon's avatar

I wonder if covid vaccines could somehow cause a false-positive PCR?

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Anette Stahel's avatar

Vaccination can cause false-positive antibody tests, https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/antibody-testing-not-currently-recommended-assess-immunity-after-covid-19-vaccination-fda-safety, but according to https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2021/02/26/could-vaccination-cause-me-to-test-positive-for-covid-19/, it cannot cause false-positive antigen or PCR tests.

However, when I read the passage with the explanation to why, I got quite doubtful:

"mRNA-based vaccines will not cause a Covid-19 PCR test to be positive. Similarly, these vaccines will not cause rapid antigen tests to be positive, since the proteins produced following vaccination are not expressed in the respiratory (i.e., nasal) tract, which is sampled for Covid-19 PCR or antigen testing."

So what if someone develops vaccine side-effects, takes a test which shows positive, then experiences an increase of the side-effect symptoms to the point where they become lethal. The person then dies with a covid label, when in reality, it was a vaccine side-effect death.

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Mathew Crawford's avatar

Another great article.

I'm a big fan of the extremal principle, and focusing on cases like this is a great employ of the principle.

Cheers, mate.

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Teri G's avatar

Why is their death rate since 2000 steadily increasing? Aging population?

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Joel Smalley's avatar

I have no idea but I have controlled for it. Subject for another story if someone has a vested interest?

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Anette Stahel's avatar

Hey Joel, you don't have an email address by any chance, or some other secluded contact channel?

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Survivedwithcannabis's avatar

So expected deaths for 2021 is 302. We don’t know what it is . Only the covid attributed deaths are shown snd the death of AEs. So we see 1:3 between vaccine deaths to covid deaths . And some will say without the shot it could be 0:100. I think maybe I am

Not getting the full picture that is being presented .

If we look at world data at changes in mortality in various population I think it went from like 7 to 9/1000 or 2 more deaths per 1000 for all cause . It’s possible an island could not be affected if they not exposed , like Australia has interested graphs . But keeping with this idea of an average of 2 more deaths per 1000 that might add an extra 104 deaths due to untreated non vaxxed covid lock downs and what not . Point I am making is that one might take such a world rate of all death mortality and apply it and then compare the vaccinated year with the new expected deaths . So with sars2 infection in population and measures 2021 might expect a total death of 406/54,000. Less then that would be attributed to vaccination affect . So if the numbers are 302+30+11=343 is better then 406 by 63 lives saved . So we need to know the total deaths of 2021 and maybe get a sense of the case rates as well

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Survivedwithcannabis's avatar

What I did find was that the island only got cases starting in November . So just 2 months of covid and 30 deaths . But in this time the population was like 90% vaccinated . Still can’t find any total death data , but if covid was only detected in November it’s like not as relevant . Not like other populations that have had covid through the year . As far as I can tell . But , like Australia if we see all death numbers up , where there is no covid we can question the effects of the vaccines on general health .

3% deaths due to shots to get 10.3% death due to covid and still unknown change in all death data in 2021. But maybe we could look at Australia and anticipate what the all death data might be. But then Australia does have a big older population that would likely exaggerate both covid and the adverse events

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Nelson Pewitt's avatar

Is that deaths per day?

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