6 Comments
Jan 9, 2022Liked by Joel Smalley

Perfect summation 👍👍

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Could you please do one for New Zealand? We have 50 deaths so all cause mortality would be good to see, there's a clear correlation of 60+ death/vaccination rate done by Prof Guy Hatchard

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Thanks Joel and love the summary tables. Two questions: how's the SD determined, and is there any data for babies and children?

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Standard numerical methods for average and StDev of 2015 to 2019 ASMRs. If there's an error in that methodology it doesn't really change anything. The range is only there as a rough guide and the year end comparison is between 2020 and 2021 more than against the 5-year benchmark. There is nothing to see in the 0-14. Unfortunately, they don't separate out 0 year olds otherwise there might be.

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It's hard to really appreciate the differences in the blue/red for "significant" versus "not so much".

Maybe:

* Rescale the graphs here to just the min/max of the band? I know this is a "how to lie with statistics" trick, but might be appropriate.

* And/or color the area between the gray band and the overflow, so its easier to see the area?

* Or maybe a graph of excess deaths over the gray band? (E.g. 0 inside the band, the delta outside it.) This could be shown on the bottom of each chart, so you see them together?

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The comparative analysis is done on the full year result (well 49 weeks so far at any rate). It's a point that otherwise there is generally no discernible difference between the time series plots because outside of spring 2020, there really isn't any discernible difference in most cases! In other words, there has been no medical emergency and there has been no miracle cure.

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