Oh my, you'll have your hands in the proverbial cookie jar with access to those actuarial tables!!!😉👏👏💯
Keep us posted, and do us a favour, give us a heads up, first, if you think our premiums are in danger of skyrocketing🤔🤨😉 Before you pass the data on🙏😉
As a failed O level maths student with definitely no aptitude for any sort of maths or graphs, I quite often impress myself by understanding what you are saying.
Today, I'm sorry to say I have absolutely no idea what any of this is! Still, I read to the end and nodded. Keep up the good work!
""In other news, I have recently joined the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (I know, right?!). I have applied for access to the Continuous Mortality Investigation mortality tables to see how my results compare with theirs.
Given that the entire insurance industry relies on their life tables (and I believe they are driven primarily by the “empirical distribution”, rather than a well-modelled, prospective one), this could have rather a profound impact on risk premiums if our results are substantially different.""
Excellent work, Joel! (Am always pleasantly surprised that my own investigations are taking me in similar directions to your own ;)
"In other words, information about the number of 79 year-olds who died in 2019 (i.e. born in 1940) tells us very little about the prospects for those born in 1970 to live until that age (in 2049!)."
And yet that is what standard life-tables are based on, right?
Question: Who do the Cohorts 1-6 represent?
Finally, I think it needs repeating, because it is still widely under-appreciated: the period directly preceding the announced pandemic was, in fact, one of deficit mortality!
Indeed it was. And 2020, in spite of the atrocious treatment protocols was still not as bad as 2021. And we all know what happened that year?! For the cohorts, they are simply mathematical constructs to model the data in the first instance. If you want my opinion on what they mean demographically, I think three of the first four could be related to some genetic predisposition to die early. there is also one there that I refer to as the "reckless teenager" hump, more apparent in the young men! The last two, I think, are simply lifestyle choice. There is unhealthy (regime 5) and healthy (regime 6). So, you can affect your own longevity by choosing to play in either of the regimes. Unfortunately, there does not yet seem to be evidence of pushing the right boundary of regime 6.
Not sure I follow: [significantly more people are being kept alive longer, even if they are not living longer] ? Isn't "living longer" === "alive longer" ?
Absolutely not! Which is why I made the quip. This is the essence of "mortality compression". More people are shifting from dying in in the middle ages to dying in old age but the old age is not dying older! IMO, those who are shifting are not necessarily living healthier lives, I believe they are being "kept alive" longer due to advances in healthcare. Unfortunately, I think this comes with increased chronic ill-health. So, a win-win for Big Pharma.
I think the introduction of the use of things like surgical clips and iud is part of the answer of why men have caught up. Women seem to undergo more surgeries than men in which metal surgical clips and markers are left in their bodies. I’ve spoken to a few who discovered they had a few dozen in them. They were chronically sick for years but not one dr told them they had all those clips in them because allopathic drs aren’t allowed to investigate the cause of disease. These people(mainly women) suffer for years and die much earlier than they should have. Often it starts with breast implants. Once the women demand removal the surgeons leave metal clips and markers in them but don’t tell them.
We also know that women are much much more susceptible to becoming allergic to nickel when exposed and many of these surgical clips are 50% nickel. It’s called nitinol.
I think you may find this research very interesting. It’s about metals and how they are an existential threat to the human race and the much bigger incidence in women of hypersensitivity to metals. The data of Melisa diagnostics and Orthopaedics analysis will confirm this difference between men and women’s susceptibility to becoming hypersensitised to nickel when exposed. It’s a published scientific article and made big waves amongst the metal hypersensitivity industry when released in 2022.
Not sure that’s exactly what the data implies. The curves are similar in shape but more women live to the modal value, so their average age of death will still be higher. Whether the difference is significant, or significantly different from current situation (pre-1970 generations), impossible I think to say from this data.
Correct. The answer lies in the cause of those men who used to die in regime 5 now dying in regime 6 at almost the same relative rates as the women. Could it be the decline of heavy industry, perhaps? All that coal and asbestos dust?
Oh my, you'll have your hands in the proverbial cookie jar with access to those actuarial tables!!!😉👏👏💯
Keep us posted, and do us a favour, give us a heads up, first, if you think our premiums are in danger of skyrocketing🤔🤨😉 Before you pass the data on🙏😉
I imagine the mortality compression has been underestimated which means your term life premiums are too high so don't get your hopes up on any change!
If you're correct, you can start your own insurance company and offer better rates (to certain individuals)! I know, easier said than done...
Hold my beer!
Good point Jeremy…. We have an idea….
I love your articles!
As a failed O level maths student with definitely no aptitude for any sort of maths or graphs, I quite often impress myself by understanding what you are saying.
Today, I'm sorry to say I have absolutely no idea what any of this is! Still, I read to the end and nodded. Keep up the good work!
Thank you for reading to the end! I think you are probably doing yourself a disservice - I think you probably understood very well!
You are so smart Joel. Thank you for sharing your intelligence with all of us.💕
""In other news, I have recently joined the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (I know, right?!). I have applied for access to the Continuous Mortality Investigation mortality tables to see how my results compare with theirs.
Given that the entire insurance industry relies on their life tables (and I believe they are driven primarily by the “empirical distribution”, rather than a well-modelled, prospective one), this could have rather a profound impact on risk premiums if our results are substantially different.""
Bombastic!!!
I'm not convinced they will let me stay very long!
"principally, where or not you find yourself in cohort 4, 5 or 6"
I think you meant, "whether or not..."
Thanks
NZ is running out of gas – literally
This country is collapsing
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/nz-is-running-out-of-gas-literally
Failed State status imminent ...................
Time for a glass of wine 🍷 Joel 🤣🤣
WOW! it will take me some time to get through this. In the meantime, a couple of links that may be useful :
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables
and a shameless plug :
https://richarda697.substack.com/p/surviving_in_the_uk_to_2022
Hi Joel, have you had a look at the recent Swiss Re paper?
The future of excess mortality after COVID-19 https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:ea7e7299-d802-4734-8816-7c49246092a1/sri-expertise-publication-excess-mortality-covid.pdf
"Our preferred methodology is the Lee-Carter with age cohorts model. ...capturing variable mortality improvements by age as well as cohort effects"
Ref: A Cohort-Based Extension to the Lee-Carter Model for Mortality Reduction Factors (June 2006, Insurance Mathematics and Economics)
DOI:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2005.12.001
Authors: A.E. Renshaw, Steven Haberman (City, University of London)
Fascinating
Absolute proof that the trump shooting was fake
https://www.bitchute.com/video/XyQfYhZO9mLT
Notice his right hand... he touches his ear... but no blood on his hand... how can it be?
IQ test:
Videos - Reagan and Trump shootings...
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/reagan-shooting-vs-trump-shooting
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-trump-shooting-was-staged
Excellent work, Joel! (Am always pleasantly surprised that my own investigations are taking me in similar directions to your own ;)
"In other words, information about the number of 79 year-olds who died in 2019 (i.e. born in 1940) tells us very little about the prospects for those born in 1970 to live until that age (in 2049!)."
And yet that is what standard life-tables are based on, right?
Question: Who do the Cohorts 1-6 represent?
Finally, I think it needs repeating, because it is still widely under-appreciated: the period directly preceding the announced pandemic was, in fact, one of deficit mortality!
Indeed it was. And 2020, in spite of the atrocious treatment protocols was still not as bad as 2021. And we all know what happened that year?! For the cohorts, they are simply mathematical constructs to model the data in the first instance. If you want my opinion on what they mean demographically, I think three of the first four could be related to some genetic predisposition to die early. there is also one there that I refer to as the "reckless teenager" hump, more apparent in the young men! The last two, I think, are simply lifestyle choice. There is unhealthy (regime 5) and healthy (regime 6). So, you can affect your own longevity by choosing to play in either of the regimes. Unfortunately, there does not yet seem to be evidence of pushing the right boundary of regime 6.
Not sure I follow: [significantly more people are being kept alive longer, even if they are not living longer] ? Isn't "living longer" === "alive longer" ?
Nice touch getting the L.P. Hartley quote in :)
Absolutely not! Which is why I made the quip. This is the essence of "mortality compression". More people are shifting from dying in in the middle ages to dying in old age but the old age is not dying older! IMO, those who are shifting are not necessarily living healthier lives, I believe they are being "kept alive" longer due to advances in healthcare. Unfortunately, I think this comes with increased chronic ill-health. So, a win-win for Big Pharma.
Cheers - I get what you're saying now.
I think the introduction of the use of things like surgical clips and iud is part of the answer of why men have caught up. Women seem to undergo more surgeries than men in which metal surgical clips and markers are left in their bodies. I’ve spoken to a few who discovered they had a few dozen in them. They were chronically sick for years but not one dr told them they had all those clips in them because allopathic drs aren’t allowed to investigate the cause of disease. These people(mainly women) suffer for years and die much earlier than they should have. Often it starts with breast implants. Once the women demand removal the surgeons leave metal clips and markers in them but don’t tell them.
We also know that women are much much more susceptible to becoming allergic to nickel when exposed and many of these surgical clips are 50% nickel. It’s called nitinol.
I think you may find this research very interesting. It’s about metals and how they are an existential threat to the human race and the much bigger incidence in women of hypersensitivity to metals. The data of Melisa diagnostics and Orthopaedics analysis will confirm this difference between men and women’s susceptibility to becoming hypersensitised to nickel when exposed. It’s a published scientific article and made big waves amongst the metal hypersensitivity industry when released in 2022.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dgQ-9mj0peVDAA7F689DBk3tZhZcNMhq
But the women aren't dying sooner, the men are dying later?
I expect that because of the metal fragments and PMMA bone cement in me, the day of my death will be about 52 or 53 years old. I’m currently 51
"Male longevity has really caught up with female"
Declining testosterone levels?
Not sure that’s exactly what the data implies. The curves are similar in shape but more women live to the modal value, so their average age of death will still be higher. Whether the difference is significant, or significantly different from current situation (pre-1970 generations), impossible I think to say from this data.
Correct. The answer lies in the cause of those men who used to die in regime 5 now dying in regime 6 at almost the same relative rates as the women. Could it be the decline of heavy industry, perhaps? All that coal and asbestos dust?