Yeah, I'm still struggling to see the sudden drops in mortality after major public health interventions! The distributions do improve steadily since the 1880s until the 1960s but I think much of that is due to improved sanitation and nutrition rather than healthcare.
Interestingly enough, that historical dataset I mentioned has ICD codes going all the way back to 1901. In 1901, there were only 186 different codes. By 1992, there were over 2,000!! Of course, there will be more detailed sub-causes now but I can't help feeling like there are more things that will kill you nowadays if you listen to the public "health" agencies!
Too true Joel - it's literally the creation of illness like the DSM manual for psychiatry. Health and politics are unfortunately intertwined, yet so many separate out the two and don't see the larger narrative. Health is a mindset on all fronts, starting with the ICD code for "common sense." What made you so interested in this research? Curious what events were an "awakening" for you. For me I woke up around 2012, after reading about the satatnic connection and numerology around 911 - SK Bain was the author.
Females are more sensitive to changes in their light environment, as this can disrupt /elevate their leptin hormone, as a result lowering melanocyte-stimulating hormone (MSH).
Why is this relevant? MSH combats inflammation, infection, and fights cancer by absorbing UV light. Since the 1910s we've experienced a radical shift in our light/ EMF environment with the invention of radio, followed by radar, etc:
I'm not a "numbers" person or a stats or graphs one but...even I can see and understand those and my "expert opinion" (because we're all experts these days and my opinion is as good as anyone 's!) is that these odd death peaks are medical. You can argue that men used to smoke and had dangerous jobs and maybe women died in childbirth but, since the 1980s (and maybe before) the smoking men were dead and the women who were dying certainly weren't dying in childbirth. Speaking from my own experience with parents born in 1928 and 1929, they died in their late 80s but they were on so much medication towards the end that I could have become a drug dealer! They were given medication for things they didn't have in order to avoid them having whatever it was (blood pressure tablets with no high blood pressure, anti-depressants because "old people often get depressed"). They took tablets without knowing what they were for but took them because the doctor told them too. My mother died of old age in spite of all the medication but her last years were miserable because the health care system assured her she was ill and continuously tested her to see what they could find (nothing but they still gave her tablets). Everybody dies but many people die miserably and drugged up because the doctors try to keep them alive (except when there's a pandemic, obviously)!
Correct! That's the beauty of the Gompertz. As a continuous function, moderate changes year after year eventually find their way into the distribution so it's difficult to distinguish them. But even without the benefit of the model, those spikes since 1995 are so obvious that they could not be natural. And, unfortunately for the public "health" authorities, they always deviate the wrong way!
my elderly parents believe that their pills are what's keeping them alive and in "good health." But they are not in good health, and they are not enjoying life. Between the two of them, they have about 6 doctor appointments per week (I'm not kidding). Because they have so many appointments with their various specialists, they need handlers, because they can barely walk. No -- they are not enjoying life. But I think they really enjoy these outings to the doctor!
Why is it that we as a society have come to accept the annual checkup ritual? I'm questioning the wisdom of that. Every one of my friends who goes to the doctor has been diagnosed with something, many times something scary, and they are on tons of pills and are miserable.
I also find it interesting, how many people I know get diagnosed with something scary right around the time they shift over from private insurance to Medicare (age 65). Magical timing.
Also once you're diagnosed with something it's almost impossible to be later diagnosed cured. Isn't that the objective, apparently not. It's hard even to get a clear definition of what test results would equal cured. So the number of concurrent disease states continue accumulating. Moreover with each battery of drugs the matrix of side effects increases.
I'm on a range of meds for low left ventricle EF (ejection fraction), one of which was the bedtime hit of atorvastatin (yes, a statin). On learning of its 'potential effects', I was relieved that I'd never gotten in the habit of taking it. Some intuition at work I imagine.
The current pharmaceutical model is utterly, profoundly a disservice to patients.
Ha ha! I couldn't say and don't want to get anyone in trouble! I know one changed dept but know nothing about the other 3. Maybe they just got uncomfortable about something?! ;-)
For the billions we provide to these "health" agencies, it would be nice if ANY of them would do this work, INSTEAD OF what they are doing,....which is fighting to prevent these numbers ever being seen, let alone understood.
Nov 14, 2023·edited Nov 14, 2023Liked by Joel Smalley
At one point, Dr. Max Gerson went along with Dr. Albert Schweitzer, and they noted that the African tribes they interacted with lived to extreme ages, well over a hundred on average. Coupled with zero chronic disease, they lived healthy lives.
Then the British started sending out their, usually canned, food. Immediately they saw an uptick in various diseases including cancer, previously unknown.
Dr. Gerson thought it was the high sodium content of these foods which was causing the problems.
Read about the Rosetta heart study. The more the immigrants in that community left their community, the worse their health got...and their diet wasn't what the FDA and the food pyramid said was good. So maybe we should abandon that faulty advice and live in true community and "tribes". It's part of what is missing in this fractured world.
See my article on statins? The drug (like vaccines) was a money-spinner for chronic conditions caused by faulty advice in nutrition for sure! I'm back to my childhood days - raw milk, free range eggs and plenty of organic meat with all the fat left on! If it comes wrapped in anything, I'm not eating it.
Well I read Sex, Lies and Me no pause and know the story. I share as much as I can. And the only thing I wrap my food in is a tortilla...it all tastes better in a tortilla 😂
Maybe consider familysearch.org. The LDS church makes this available to the public. Millions of images of records from all over the world. I’m not Mormon but I do use the site to do genealogy research in USA and Mexico records. The Mexican church records are great. I do not know how deep the English records are but if they survived any wars, chances are they’ve been cataloged and made available.
My family name genealogy goes back to the early 1600's and I don't remember anyone living past 100. Probably happened here and there in branches I did not look at as there are 4 volumes in the last edition.
Supposed to be the local parishes (is that the correct term?) The local priests etc I think were charged with keeping accurate records of their parishners, old church law I believe. At least that's what elders said to me.🤷♀️🤷♀️
Correct. In one of my blockchain lectures, I did a little research into the history of "ledgers". The etymology is "something laying in one position" and originally referred to the stones in the churches that contained all the birth, marriage and death records.
Although your data is UK, I imagine same mortality trends would be found in US, though I suspetc worse thanks to the Medical Machine which took off 1900s onwards when they had an injection of funding by Carnegie, Rockefeller with a dash of JP Morgan.
Abraham Flexner (Carnegie Foundation) took over American Medical Association's (eliminate the competition) project and released The Flexner Report 1910, which became the justification for changing Medical Education and Hospitals (i.e. eliminating the "new" competititon and force people to use allopaths who tended to have a higher mortality rate)
Dr Simon Flexner (brother) worked with Rockefeller Jr and Fredrick Gates (Gates of Hell!) and helped develop and push vaccines, anti-toxins, surgery etc.
''Just look at 2015! Both men and women are seriously in excess.''
Yes, big year for excess deaths in Scotland. The death rate/1000 in 90+ was HIGHER between 2014-15 seasons than it was for 2019-2020 inc COVID which is said to prey predominantly on the very elderly.
More proof COVID was a fraud. The real killer in 2020 was the lockdowns.
NEW-Psychiatry International | peer-reviewed
''In conclusion, significant negative lockdown effects on mood, quality of life and immune fitness were observed across the population''
''Depression, loneliness most pronounced among younger individuals''
Yes. An I am very suspicious of "bad flu" years now too. As my dear friend Mike Yeadon says - "viruses don't kill people"! And it's pretty much common knowledge to most of us now that the least pathogenic viruses have an advantage over more pathogenic variants (if you believe in that model). Virulence is a function of pathogenicity and immunological quality of the host. So, if it's not the pathogenicity of the virus, it must be the quality of the host! You don't suddenly get unhealthy batches of people one year but not another. My hypothesis is simply how deleterious the flu jab is one year to the next in terms of disrupting natural immunity.
Thank you. As you can see, it is possible to work it on data where the age stratification is not single year but you are limited to the same observation intervals for the deaths and have to average births over the same period to ensure the model remains sensible. Single year of death is fine but the ONS are going to give me monthly deaths by month/year of birth. Since we also have monthly births, we will be able to make a very reliable model.
What worries me is the immigration. I am not sure how accurately it's been documented throughout the past 8 years, during which Germany saw an influx of millions of people.
Nov 14, 2023·edited Nov 14, 2023Liked by Joel Smalley
Yeah, not in the publically available German datasets. I am going to have to look into what else might be available when I get started. I just finished my analysis of the US data.
Yeah e it seems so. The US mortality is actually accessible by county, single year of age, gender, race, place of death, UCOD, MCOD etc. in weekly intervals through CDC Wonder when requests are combined to circumvent suppressed values.
Germany has great hospital data (inek.org), but the public mortality datasets are awful and the vaccination data by federal land of residence seems off.
Could it be... that THEY understood the implications of having too much 'dead wood' in the system (too many people living too long and burdening the economy... see Japan where you end up with too many retired people and not enough working age folks to support them...) which would result in collapse of the system....
Sooooo... they decided to implement a range of policies that included vaccines... a food pyramid guaranteed to promote heart disease and diabetes (hands up if you thought eating whole grain bread was a healthy pursuit)... telling us fat causes heart disease when actually sugar/carbs is the problem... foisting all sorts of toxic processed foods on the masses... etc etc etc....
For the purpose of culling the herd... and ensuring billions did not live into their 90's.
The one fly in my ointment is the push to stop smoking ... that's a great herd culler... perhaps one of their think tanks determined that promoting smoking was a bit too harsh ... and that it was killing too many too early... I am only a one person think tank so I do not have access to the research that these big outfits have that drives the decisions of the Men Who Run the World.
I have considered this but honestly, I don't think they are smart enough to have done the analysis to get the accurate forecasts. Hell, they don't even have the fricking data! I think it's more a case of trying to find that right balance of chronically ill people dependent on their drugs. Unfortunately for them, they didn't realise how deadly their "cures" would be, certainly not over the long term (statins) and now in the short term (flu/COVID vaxxes). Yes, I still have a foot in Hanlon's (Razor) camp. This is primarily about money, not depopulation, IMO.
keep in mind ... the Men Who Run the World... are not bumbling fools... they are extremely intelligent and very thorough.... they have think tanks analysing everything... and reporting back... then decisions are made
We only have to look at their military arm - the DOD... they war gaming literally thousands of potentialities...
The Federal Reserve similar war games financial potentialities... and acts when necessary (see Plunge Protection Team)
You don't get to Run the World ... if you are bumbling clowns.
To think that the overshoot issue has not been raised decades ago ... is hard to imagine.
Just because they don't mention data or openly discuss the issue - does not mean they have not addressed it. They generally do not inform the barnyard animals of what they are up to.
Look no further than pension obligations ... if the barnyard animals are healthy and live too long the pension system collapses... and that brings down the global economy...
The Men Who Run the World are all powerful... pharma are their minions... if these men wanted healthy barnyard animals who lived till 100 ... they'd issue an edict... and fat would not be blamed for heart disease... kids would not be injected with dozens of vaccines etc...
1. I'm going to do a follow-up piece comparing each distribution over time. I will include a comparison of parameters but they will tell the same story. More intuitively, it will reveal itself in terms of "life expectancy", measured by mean and mode.
2. No. Previously, I stitched the curves together to create a single, contemporaneous curve, against which I could measure data from a single period.
3. The final analysis is going to be submitted to a medical journal in collaboration with some proper scientists. That would be best to submit to the ONS and invite their peer review?
Fascinating! Looks like 'progress' in medicine is once again bad for our health.
Yeah, I'm still struggling to see the sudden drops in mortality after major public health interventions! The distributions do improve steadily since the 1880s until the 1960s but I think much of that is due to improved sanitation and nutrition rather than healthcare.
HI Joel, thanks for your insights on the data.
Did you know that before 1850, heart disease was the 25th cause of death, on par with accidental drowning? Now it's a top killer in young people:
https://romanshapoval.substack.com/p/why-heart-disease-is-an-electrical
Interestingly enough, that historical dataset I mentioned has ICD codes going all the way back to 1901. In 1901, there were only 186 different codes. By 1992, there were over 2,000!! Of course, there will be more detailed sub-causes now but I can't help feeling like there are more things that will kill you nowadays if you listen to the public "health" agencies!
Too true Joel - it's literally the creation of illness like the DSM manual for psychiatry. Health and politics are unfortunately intertwined, yet so many separate out the two and don't see the larger narrative. Health is a mindset on all fronts, starting with the ICD code for "common sense." What made you so interested in this research? Curious what events were an "awakening" for you. For me I woke up around 2012, after reading about the satatnic connection and numerology around 911 - SK Bain was the author.
Very interesting stack on heart disease - have saved it to read it properly later when I am not working.
Thank you so very much for that Patricia. Let me know what "aha" moments you have?!
Has Matthew Crawford seen this. It would be interesting to see what he says also in relation to socioeconomics as you mentioned here.
Females are more sensitive to changes in their light environment, as this can disrupt /elevate their leptin hormone, as a result lowering melanocyte-stimulating hormone (MSH).
https://romanshapoval.substack.com/p/lymedisease
Why is this relevant? MSH combats inflammation, infection, and fights cancer by absorbing UV light. Since the 1910s we've experienced a radical shift in our light/ EMF environment with the invention of radio, followed by radar, etc:
https://romanshapoval.substack.com/p/how-flu-is-an-electrical-illness
When we finish the final thesis, I would welcome your insights into it.
Jioel, thank you so much for that. I would be honored.
Add to that toxic pesticides/chemicals, hormone disrupters
Safe anDeffective🍻👍
Very interesting Joel - thanks for doing all of this work.
Excess deaths now have a seat in cabinet
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/esther-mcveys-return-government-confirmed-28100430
https://www.esthermcvey.com/news/esther-mcvey-mp-returns-issue-excess-deaths-post-covid-dhsc-questions-house
I'm not a "numbers" person or a stats or graphs one but...even I can see and understand those and my "expert opinion" (because we're all experts these days and my opinion is as good as anyone 's!) is that these odd death peaks are medical. You can argue that men used to smoke and had dangerous jobs and maybe women died in childbirth but, since the 1980s (and maybe before) the smoking men were dead and the women who were dying certainly weren't dying in childbirth. Speaking from my own experience with parents born in 1928 and 1929, they died in their late 80s but they were on so much medication towards the end that I could have become a drug dealer! They were given medication for things they didn't have in order to avoid them having whatever it was (blood pressure tablets with no high blood pressure, anti-depressants because "old people often get depressed"). They took tablets without knowing what they were for but took them because the doctor told them too. My mother died of old age in spite of all the medication but her last years were miserable because the health care system assured her she was ill and continuously tested her to see what they could find (nothing but they still gave her tablets). Everybody dies but many people die miserably and drugged up because the doctors try to keep them alive (except when there's a pandemic, obviously)!
Correct! That's the beauty of the Gompertz. As a continuous function, moderate changes year after year eventually find their way into the distribution so it's difficult to distinguish them. But even without the benefit of the model, those spikes since 1995 are so obvious that they could not be natural. And, unfortunately for the public "health" authorities, they always deviate the wrong way!
my elderly parents believe that their pills are what's keeping them alive and in "good health." But they are not in good health, and they are not enjoying life. Between the two of them, they have about 6 doctor appointments per week (I'm not kidding). Because they have so many appointments with their various specialists, they need handlers, because they can barely walk. No -- they are not enjoying life. But I think they really enjoy these outings to the doctor!
Why is it that we as a society have come to accept the annual checkup ritual? I'm questioning the wisdom of that. Every one of my friends who goes to the doctor has been diagnosed with something, many times something scary, and they are on tons of pills and are miserable.
I also find it interesting, how many people I know get diagnosed with something scary right around the time they shift over from private insurance to Medicare (age 65). Magical timing.
Well, you know the adage? "Don't ask your barber if you need a haircut!"
If your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail.
This!!! Avoid Doctors! If I’m in a car accident, then please, but otherwise, leave me alone.
Also once you're diagnosed with something it's almost impossible to be later diagnosed cured. Isn't that the objective, apparently not. It's hard even to get a clear definition of what test results would equal cured. So the number of concurrent disease states continue accumulating. Moreover with each battery of drugs the matrix of side effects increases.
I'm on a range of meds for low left ventricle EF (ejection fraction), one of which was the bedtime hit of atorvastatin (yes, a statin). On learning of its 'potential effects', I was relieved that I'd never gotten in the habit of taking it. Some intuition at work I imagine.
The current pharmaceutical model is utterly, profoundly a disservice to patients.
Why are they short staffed? Covid vaccines? 🤔😉
Or people leaving cause they realise they were being made to doctor the results?😳🤔
Ha ha! I couldn't say and don't want to get anyone in trouble! I know one changed dept but know nothing about the other 3. Maybe they just got uncomfortable about something?! ;-)
Or they are all still ‘working from the beach’.
For the billions we provide to these "health" agencies, it would be nice if ANY of them would do this work, INSTEAD OF what they are doing,....which is fighting to prevent these numbers ever being seen, let alone understood.
By the way, someone told me that the Church, a long time ago, kept very good records, and that those records showed clergy living to 150.
Do you know about that?
Have you seen those records?
I have not, nor heard of such stories. The records also exist at the ONS, only in paper form.
At one point, Dr. Max Gerson went along with Dr. Albert Schweitzer, and they noted that the African tribes they interacted with lived to extreme ages, well over a hundred on average. Coupled with zero chronic disease, they lived healthy lives.
Then the British started sending out their, usually canned, food. Immediately they saw an uptick in various diseases including cancer, previously unknown.
Dr. Gerson thought it was the high sodium content of these foods which was causing the problems.
Read about the Rosetta heart study. The more the immigrants in that community left their community, the worse their health got...and their diet wasn't what the FDA and the food pyramid said was good. So maybe we should abandon that faulty advice and live in true community and "tribes". It's part of what is missing in this fractured world.
See my article on statins? The drug (like vaccines) was a money-spinner for chronic conditions caused by faulty advice in nutrition for sure! I'm back to my childhood days - raw milk, free range eggs and plenty of organic meat with all the fat left on! If it comes wrapped in anything, I'm not eating it.
Well I read Sex, Lies and Me no pause and know the story. I share as much as I can. And the only thing I wrap my food in is a tortilla...it all tastes better in a tortilla 😂
Maybe consider familysearch.org. The LDS church makes this available to the public. Millions of images of records from all over the world. I’m not Mormon but I do use the site to do genealogy research in USA and Mexico records. The Mexican church records are great. I do not know how deep the English records are but if they survived any wars, chances are they’ve been cataloged and made available.
My family name genealogy goes back to the early 1600's and I don't remember anyone living past 100. Probably happened here and there in branches I did not look at as there are 4 volumes in the last edition.
Supposed to be the local parishes (is that the correct term?) The local priests etc I think were charged with keeping accurate records of their parishners, old church law I believe. At least that's what elders said to me.🤷♀️🤷♀️
Correct. In one of my blockchain lectures, I did a little research into the history of "ledgers". The etymology is "something laying in one position" and originally referred to the stones in the churches that contained all the birth, marriage and death records.
Weren't those particular stones also the ones that only the master stone mason of the build were allowed to place?🤔
I see. That sounds right. I wonder when they stopped doing that.
Thank you for all of the work you put into this. Really insightful. Thank you, thank you!
Although your data is UK, I imagine same mortality trends would be found in US, though I suspetc worse thanks to the Medical Machine which took off 1900s onwards when they had an injection of funding by Carnegie, Rockefeller with a dash of JP Morgan.
https://totalityofevidence.com/pandemic-timeline/pre-pandemic-1900-1945/
Abraham Flexner (Carnegie Foundation) took over American Medical Association's (eliminate the competition) project and released The Flexner Report 1910, which became the justification for changing Medical Education and Hospitals (i.e. eliminating the "new" competititon and force people to use allopaths who tended to have a higher mortality rate)
https://totalityofevidence.substack.com/p/hidden-knowledge-part-4-life-insurance
Dr Simon Flexner (brother) worked with Rockefeller Jr and Fredrick Gates (Gates of Hell!) and helped develop and push vaccines, anti-toxins, surgery etc.
History leaves clues!
The age of computerization where it takes longer than ever to secure data and info.
''Just look at 2015! Both men and women are seriously in excess.''
Yes, big year for excess deaths in Scotland. The death rate/1000 in 90+ was HIGHER between 2014-15 seasons than it was for 2019-2020 inc COVID which is said to prey predominantly on the very elderly.
More proof COVID was a fraud. The real killer in 2020 was the lockdowns.
NEW-Psychiatry International | peer-reviewed
''In conclusion, significant negative lockdown effects on mood, quality of life and immune fitness were observed across the population''
''Depression, loneliness most pronounced among younger individuals''
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-5318/4/4/30
Yes. An I am very suspicious of "bad flu" years now too. As my dear friend Mike Yeadon says - "viruses don't kill people"! And it's pretty much common knowledge to most of us now that the least pathogenic viruses have an advantage over more pathogenic variants (if you believe in that model). Virulence is a function of pathogenicity and immunological quality of the host. So, if it's not the pathogenicity of the virus, it must be the quality of the host! You don't suddenly get unhealthy batches of people one year but not another. My hypothesis is simply how deleterious the flu jab is one year to the next in terms of disrupting natural immunity.
Ditto same concerns. It's the jabs !! Expect big spike in deaths from week 50.
Also strong relationship with 'vitamin-D' status and ill health in winter.
Was taking note of crude mortality rates/1000 pop for Scotland today.
Til Jun 2023 latest
Jan-Jun
2019=28,787
2021=30,903
2022=31,061
2023=32,496
3,709 extra deaths over latest period Jan-Jun 2023 vs pre 'pandemic' 2019
2020 =33,866
The Lockdowns were not the real killer in 2020. Lockdowns take years to work though.
By way of counterargument I'll point to 17th April 2020. Compare CFR in the UK with the rest of the world.
Only Italy comes close. I'll not speculate as to the causes. I did notice a strong correlation with prior flu injections, though.
Awesome Joel.
I'd really like to apply your method to German data, if I can get ahold of the necessary datasets.
Thank you. As you can see, it is possible to work it on data where the age stratification is not single year but you are limited to the same observation intervals for the deaths and have to average births over the same period to ensure the model remains sensible. Single year of death is fine but the ONS are going to give me monthly deaths by month/year of birth. Since we also have monthly births, we will be able to make a very reliable model.
What worries me is the immigration. I am not sure how accurately it's been documented throughout the past 8 years, during which Germany saw an influx of millions of people.
They have place of birth on the death certificate? So they can filter by that? even the ONS is doing that for us.
Yeah, not in the publically available German datasets. I am going to have to look into what else might be available when I get started. I just finished my analysis of the US data.
It seems the only way to get the good data is by FOI request.
Yeah e it seems so. The US mortality is actually accessible by county, single year of age, gender, race, place of death, UCOD, MCOD etc. in weekly intervals through CDC Wonder when requests are combined to circumvent suppressed values.
Germany has great hospital data (inek.org), but the public mortality datasets are awful and the vaccination data by federal land of residence seems off.
Definitely going to need FOI's...
https://timothywiney.substack.com/p/its-the-most-wonderful-time-of-the?utm_source=activity_item
Could it be... that THEY understood the implications of having too much 'dead wood' in the system (too many people living too long and burdening the economy... see Japan where you end up with too many retired people and not enough working age folks to support them...) which would result in collapse of the system....
Sooooo... they decided to implement a range of policies that included vaccines... a food pyramid guaranteed to promote heart disease and diabetes (hands up if you thought eating whole grain bread was a healthy pursuit)... telling us fat causes heart disease when actually sugar/carbs is the problem... foisting all sorts of toxic processed foods on the masses... etc etc etc....
For the purpose of culling the herd... and ensuring billions did not live into their 90's.
The one fly in my ointment is the push to stop smoking ... that's a great herd culler... perhaps one of their think tanks determined that promoting smoking was a bit too harsh ... and that it was killing too many too early... I am only a one person think tank so I do not have access to the research that these big outfits have that drives the decisions of the Men Who Run the World.
I have considered this but honestly, I don't think they are smart enough to have done the analysis to get the accurate forecasts. Hell, they don't even have the fricking data! I think it's more a case of trying to find that right balance of chronically ill people dependent on their drugs. Unfortunately for them, they didn't realise how deadly their "cures" would be, certainly not over the long term (statins) and now in the short term (flu/COVID vaxxes). Yes, I still have a foot in Hanlon's (Razor) camp. This is primarily about money, not depopulation, IMO.
keep in mind ... the Men Who Run the World... are not bumbling fools... they are extremely intelligent and very thorough.... they have think tanks analysing everything... and reporting back... then decisions are made
We only have to look at their military arm - the DOD... they war gaming literally thousands of potentialities...
The Federal Reserve similar war games financial potentialities... and acts when necessary (see Plunge Protection Team)
You don't get to Run the World ... if you are bumbling clowns.
To think that the overshoot issue has not been raised decades ago ... is hard to imagine.
Just because they don't mention data or openly discuss the issue - does not mean they have not addressed it. They generally do not inform the barnyard animals of what they are up to.
Look no further than pension obligations ... if the barnyard animals are healthy and live too long the pension system collapses... and that brings down the global economy...
The Men Who Run the World are all powerful... pharma are their minions... if these men wanted healthy barnyard animals who lived till 100 ... they'd issue an edict... and fat would not be blamed for heart disease... kids would not be injected with dozens of vaccines etc...
I am cynical... I could be wrong
Good points.
Really nice analysis. A couple of techie qns and a suggestion:
1. How do the best-fit Gompertz shape and scale parameters vary across these cohorts?
2. Have you tried a Gompertz-Makeham model to quantify age-independent "trends"?
3. Please submit this to the ongoing ONS consultation on modelling "excess deaths"! https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/02/10/how-do-we-measure-expected-and-excess-deaths/
1. I'm going to do a follow-up piece comparing each distribution over time. I will include a comparison of parameters but they will tell the same story. More intuitively, it will reveal itself in terms of "life expectancy", measured by mean and mode.
2. No. Previously, I stitched the curves together to create a single, contemporaneous curve, against which I could measure data from a single period.
3. The final analysis is going to be submitted to a medical journal in collaboration with some proper scientists. That would be best to submit to the ONS and invite their peer review?
Actually, I might not do 1 because I already did here - https://metatron.substack.com/p/gompertz-modelling-of-excess-mortality. but I forget these things.