🦠 COVID: "the biggest threat faced in decades" or Just a "Bad Flu"?
The evidence proves there was no unusually novel, deadly pathogen in spring 2020 in the UK. It's a good thing the anti-vaxxers weren't "de-platformed and re-educated", eh Piers?
🚨 Trigger warning: I am incited and not mincing words in this piece. If hurty words offend you more than negligent democide, tune back into the BBC or the official inquiry and read no further! You won’t find truth but you might find solace. For most, that’s best. 🙏
In March 2020, the erstwhile PM, bumbling buffoon, Boris “BoJo” Johnson, ignorantly and foolishly declared that COVID was the “biggest threat this country has faced for decades”…
…without checking the mortality records of the last few decades.
A few months in, gullible, ignorant, virtue-signalling, fools like Piers Morgan (chief Dunning-Kruger Effect) got upset when you stated that COVID was “just a bad flu”, dogmatically impotent to justify his spleen, reverting to name calling, transference and hand waving away of data and analysis:
But guess what you see when you do check the evidence!
A novel, deadly pathogen wreaking havoc across all demographics of society, resulting in “unprecedented” excess death as Matt Hancock would pitifully mutter?
Well, if you’re still even remotely in that camp, I’m sorry to burst your bubble (yet again) - COVID was indeed just a “bad flu”. Although, to be completely frank, nowadays, I’m not even sure what that means or if it really has any material implication in terms of mortality.
Nevertheless, let’s take a look!
Here is the expected and actual deaths of men aged over 60 years old, in England & Wales, between 1970 and 2021:
Over the last 50 years, monthly deaths have varied between 19k and 22k due to changes in population demographics.
As you can see, monthly deaths fluctuate significantly, not just according to seasonal patterns but from year to year as well. And, there have been several months that were just as bad as April 2020 when the COVID “pandemic” was declared and massive disruption was wantonly inflicted on people for whom COVID was otherwise an absolute non-event.
So, was COVID the biggest threat in decades? Well, strictly according to the data, yes, it was. But only for certain people (more on that in a bit).
As a single month, for men aged over 60, April 2020 recorded 18,000 excess deaths1 (86% over baseline), worse (in absolute and relative terms) than Dec 1989, the next worse single month which recorded 11,000 (55% over baseline). Dec-1972 / Jan-1973 was pretty rough too, together racking up 13,000 excess deaths.
But that’s not even the whole story.
If you’re smart and not afraid of the truth, you read the stuff put out by the likes of the indomitable “John Dee” - a trustworthy, independent expert, tirelessly doing the job that the Government, with all their public resources, obstinately refuses to do.
According to his latest research and analysis, using acute symptomatic COVID as a marker, defined as having some form of acute respiratory condition, incidental to death, in the deceased’s medical notes of the large, anonymous NHS Trust data that he is working on, only 45% of the spring 2020 COVID deaths were even remotely credible (rising to 61% in the post-vax era). If you filter by “COVID” being the only mentioned condition, the figure drops to a mere 0.4%.
Even the ONS agreed at the time, admitting that 16k excess deaths in spring 2020 were non-COVID but, in spite of their asinine caveat about deaths averted (but only in the Ferguson model, not reality!), it got very little media coverage and is now buried in the annals. I dug it out…
So, strip away the non-COVID excess deaths and how does Apr-2020 fare now, relative to prior “bad flu years”? Not exactly standing out, is it? Not so much a “bad flu” as a common cold?
As we keep saying (because the evidence keeps pointing in that direction), the response was more deadly than the virus - the majority of excess deaths were not due directly to the virus but due to medical malpractice:
Moving on to Jan 2021 when the miracle elixirs were foisted upon all and sundry, without properly informed consent, to save the day, and excess deaths plummet, swiftly surpassing the expected deficit that usually follows extreme excess.
Wait, what?! Sorry, that isn’t what happened at all. Jan 2021 was almost as bad as Apr 2020 “in spite” of expectations of mortality deficit due to the pull-forward effect, on top of myriad other reasons for lower deaths like greater herd immunity and virus attenuation. It recorded over 14,000 excess deaths (69% over baseline).
Even more amazingly, real, “symptomatic”, “COVID” deaths more than double from the spring wave to 58%!
For the women, we don’t even need the caveats:
Coming in with absolute excess of 16,000 (76% over baseline), Apr-2020 is exactly the same as Dec-1989, also at 16,000 (71% over baseline).
Including seasons that spanned month end, then COVID spring ranks third, behind Feb/Mar-1976 at 17,000 and Dec-1999/Jan-2000 at over 20,000. Maybe I was too young and disinterested back then but I don’t recall the country being shut down in a state of national emergency. Do you?
So far then, the case for a novel, deadly virus, representing the biggest threat the country has faced for decades is looking rather limp.
But what about shutting everyone down because the virus was indiscriminate?
Well, let’s take a look at the age distributions of the excess mortality for some of the notable months, highlighted above:
Can you see the difference?
No, me neither.
Well, apart from the fact that the age distribution is skewed higher for Apr-2020 and Jan-2021 than the other big “bad flu” years. In other words, a lot more, much older people (aged 85+) died because there were a lot more much older people!
The only people who died from COVID (and the vaccine for that matter) are the very same people who always contribute to the excess death the very elderly and frail. Call me callous if you like but I’m going to be real - the majority of people who die in excess during these “bad flu” years are simply going to die anyway. They are past life expectancy.
And you know what else? We knew all of this back in March 2020.
And so did Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and Advisor to the UK Government:
The only difference is that we are now able to get hold of better data (in spite of the continued obstruction of the gatekeepers) and have honed our analytical skills. Our preliminary “theories” have aged very well (unlike those who went all in pro-narrative), turning out not to be “conspiracies” at all (not on our part at any rate).
Let’s be phlegmatic! Old people die. The only people who benefit from prolonging the inevitable own the pharmaceutical companies, occasionally sprinkling a few crusts off their ill-gotten gains to the pawns they used to keep the ignorant horde in check. Unfortunately, the pawns have really messed up the board this time and exposed the ruse.
Next time, we would do well to keep this at the front of our minds when deciding not to comply with future idiotic and destructive edicts of the rubes in Government and the high-profile media plebs that parrot the prevailing narrative.
If, unlike Piers, you are interested in “proof” (and lots and lots and lots of “not-dumb-fake” charts!) then here are the links to my workbooks, finally putting my Gompertz work to good effect:
Here’s a preview of a couple of the components that, combined, produce the most reliable baseline for estimating excess deaths, taking into consideration changes in population size and demographics over half a century:
As you might have noticed above, I discovered some more insights into the dynamics of mortality expectations but I’m going to save those for another time. If you’re curious, it relates to the emergence of a distribution - a regime change - at a couple of certain points in time - namely the 60s and 90s. Curious, right? I hadn’t noticed it before because it is more apparent in the men which I hadn’t modelled previously. But, now that I found it, I can see it in the women too.
There is, however, an important distinction to make. Here, I am only examining short-term variation over a baseline, fitted exactly to the entire underlying data, even incomplete, due to the continuous nature of the model. This means longer term (slower) variation is captured in the baseline so it does not show up in the analysis. Hence, why another study, just looking at changes in the longer term dynamics over time is also important.
In a few months, when the ONS release the updated data, I’ll include 2022 and 2023 as well. Eventually, I’ll do the younger ages too but keep putting it off, not least because, knowing how incomplete the data is, later will have more truth in it.
Truth matters. And, whether you choose to believe it or not, doesn’t change it, no matter how strong your beliefs.
Or you could trust the guy who got flu after the flu jab and still fell for the COVID lies! 👏👏👏
If I get flu now, I’m coming after you! 😂😂😂
And got COVID - twice - after getting the COVID jab!
The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.
What is it they say about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?! 🤡
Mistakes were made…
But not by those who steadfastly followed the evidence.
For the record, I’m only a few years younger than Piers and delighted to be in the “control group”. I’ve never had the flu jab and certainly never had the COVID jab. Never had the flu. Never had COVID. I do all my “own research” and my metabolic age is 17 years lower than my chronological one. Just saying. 🤔
I am grateful to Dr Clare Craig for her “peer review” of the analytics.
Note: this measure of excess death does not take expected seasonality into account. The baseline from which it is derived is the mid point between seasonal peaks and troughs.
Note also how low the baseline is for 2015 to 2019 which is typically used in other excess mortality studies. If this isn’t correctly adjusted, it will inflate excess mortality post 2020.