Wow, I am impressed that my local NHS trust has supplied you data. I know nurses that work in our local hospitals and they all keep trotting out the same "unvaccinated are filling the ICU and wards". I wish they would open their eyes and minds to real world info and data instead of media driven tosh and canteen gossip. Thank you for your work on this data.
After looking at this data, I'm not sure if mass vaccination is mass infection promotion, mass hospitalization promotion, mass mortality promotion or all three. Clearly, it's not reducing anything.
Well written Joel. As always, some potential issues that could be answered with more data (I suffer from the same issues), but given only 1 FOI response (hmmm), you've done a good job with such a limited response. I look forward to reading more.
There is no doubt in my mind that this will be the monumental work that changes the pandemic. There is no way to hide from the truth that vaccination campaign immediately puts pressure on hospital systems.
The causal pathway maybe debated and revised, but it's completely irrelevant to the central claim about vaccination as a strategy for protecting a shared scarce resource (healthcare).
In fact, stress on healthcare services should be the basis for empirically contraindicating any mass vaccination campaign if your work is replicable for more than Gloucestershire (which is likely given the matching National trends)
Finally, the two other prongs are the purported benefits from infection and transmission inhibition which will dissipate upon inspection (as you've shown in multiple countries).
I think I have an additional hypothesis that I was working on with the 18-39 ONS non-coved death data that I wish I had more time to add to analyze but will share with you in a few hours that I hope interests you.
Unfortunately, this work is so important that I was in some ways afraid to deal with it mentally. The concept of inviting the vulnerable to be preferentially protected and then not being able to verify if we were able to protect them is massively depressing. The raw data is consistent with healthy person not needing hospitalization but the 4 fold risk reduction is eerily similar to something else too. More on that soon.
Facinating stats and how any paid up member of the Covidian Cult with more than 2 brain cells cannot see the glaringly obvious is simply wilful denial; it's all over bar the shouting!!
Great analysis as usual, Joel, and so important given the press and government lies ("90% of hospitalised are unvaxxed") which have been so effective in both demonising the vax-free and spooking them to vaxx. In a sane world your results would be all over the press. Have you tried to get this summarised in say the Daily Sceptic or Spectator at least? And what about getting a lawyer to force the other 49 trusts to honour their obligations under FOI! Keep up the superb work.
Great analysis Joel. It really gives the lie to the narrative of hospitals being full of unvaxxed covid cases, like they're saying here in France.
BTW, I made a comment to your earlier analysis on December 20, which shows a much higher all cause mortality rate for the vaxxed group, compared to unvaxxed, whereas Mathew Crawford showed little difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed. I'd like your take on that.
I have an additional hypothesis based on non-covid mortality data in 18-39 released by ONS. It looks like a lot of people died compared to the unvaccinated. If you chart the 88% of the people who are in "good health", they died too. It cannot be therefore ruled out that something was happening to the jabbed cohort that wouldn't even let them make it to the hospital? Perhaps autoimmunity kills faster?
thank you for this. I wonder how this all would sort out when deaths are counted? i've seen data that suggest that because there seems to be an increased chance of severe disease and death in the first 2 weeks after the first mRNA shot but these deaths are counted as "unvaxxed" , when these deaths in the first two weeks are added into all the deaths in the fully vaxxed, the effects cancel and there seems to bee little to no effect on death rates from the vax . BUT there have been so many other excess deaths from other reasons . So the overall gov response to the pandemic in the US in particular including the mass vax rollout has actually caused more deaths than would have occurred had there been focused protection and an emphasis on vaxxing only at risk and elderly people
Hi Joel, thank-you for this. One comment about the data: I'm an NHS person and look at data a lot, and I recognise this pattern of reducing admissions at the end of the time period.
The NHS tends to only "fully record" admissions when the patient is discharged. I'm wondering if you were given a standard data dump which didn't include those still in hospital.
Did the Gloucestershire hospitals have a vaccination status updating policy for potential delays in NIMS being updated? Might not make a huge difference in some age categories but it might have a cumulative effect.
"Lags in vaccination data could also lead to misclassification; however, we excluded the most recent two days from the analysis, and a review of NIMS data showed that it is more than 90% complete beyond two days after vaccination (see supplementary figure 7)."
Another interesting quirk in the unlinked who were presumed to be unvaccinated.
"We found a higher proportion of people from non-white ethnic groups and those aged 85 years and older among those who we were unable to link to vaccination histories. "
The over 85 cohort disproportionately unlinked could have impact on the analysis since they are more likely to be hospitalized. But are they likely unvaccinated? Maybe. Maybe not.
Interesting that it seems that unvaccinated are hospitalized at a higher rate than vaccinated (for example, in the +70 age-group, >90% are vaccinated, but >20% of the hospitalized are unvaccinated). Do you have that data?
Re: Request under Freedom of Information Act 2000 ID 6124
I am writing to you in response to your request for information which was received on 11 July 2021. In your request you sought the following information:
1. How many people have died in all your hospitals of Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust from covid 19 and only due to covid 19? I have seen the figures you publish online, but these are deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test, so they could have died from other causes. I just want to know the exact figures from 1st February 2020 to 3rd April 2021 for death due to covid 19 alone
Answer : The total number of patient deaths from Covid without underlying conditions over the time period quoted is 38.
2. The Number and Percentage of people with 'underlying health conditions' in the above overall total
Answer: The Total number of patient deaths from Covid with underlying conditions over the time period quoted is 549.
3. The Number and Percentage of those without 'underlying health conditions'
Answer: From the numbers provided above we can confirm that the percentage of patient deaths from Covid over the requested time period which related to patients without underlying conditions is 6.5%.
4. A copy of what treatment guidance and protocols are currently (1) given to patients reporting by phone to their GP that they feel ill with covid like symptoms and (2) to GPs?
Answer : The Trust does not hold this information. Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust may be able to help with this aspect of your request. Please find links overleaf.
Wow, I am impressed that my local NHS trust has supplied you data. I know nurses that work in our local hospitals and they all keep trotting out the same "unvaccinated are filling the ICU and wards". I wish they would open their eyes and minds to real world info and data instead of media driven tosh and canteen gossip. Thank you for your work on this data.
After looking at this data, I'm not sure if mass vaccination is mass infection promotion, mass hospitalization promotion, mass mortality promotion or all three. Clearly, it's not reducing anything.
Well written Joel. As always, some potential issues that could be answered with more data (I suffer from the same issues), but given only 1 FOI response (hmmm), you've done a good job with such a limited response. I look forward to reading more.
There is no doubt in my mind that this will be the monumental work that changes the pandemic. There is no way to hide from the truth that vaccination campaign immediately puts pressure on hospital systems.
The causal pathway maybe debated and revised, but it's completely irrelevant to the central claim about vaccination as a strategy for protecting a shared scarce resource (healthcare).
In fact, stress on healthcare services should be the basis for empirically contraindicating any mass vaccination campaign if your work is replicable for more than Gloucestershire (which is likely given the matching National trends)
Finally, the two other prongs are the purported benefits from infection and transmission inhibition which will dissipate upon inspection (as you've shown in multiple countries).
I think I have an additional hypothesis that I was working on with the 18-39 ONS non-coved death data that I wish I had more time to add to analyze but will share with you in a few hours that I hope interests you.
Unfortunately, this work is so important that I was in some ways afraid to deal with it mentally. The concept of inviting the vulnerable to be preferentially protected and then not being able to verify if we were able to protect them is massively depressing. The raw data is consistent with healthy person not needing hospitalization but the 4 fold risk reduction is eerily similar to something else too. More on that soon.
Facinating stats and how any paid up member of the Covidian Cult with more than 2 brain cells cannot see the glaringly obvious is simply wilful denial; it's all over bar the shouting!!
Thankyou so much Joel for your amazing dedication and effort put into bringing this data to light!
And yet, the most interesting part happened right after Dec. 12!
Great analysis as usual, Joel, and so important given the press and government lies ("90% of hospitalised are unvaxxed") which have been so effective in both demonising the vax-free and spooking them to vaxx. In a sane world your results would be all over the press. Have you tried to get this summarised in say the Daily Sceptic or Spectator at least? And what about getting a lawyer to force the other 49 trusts to honour their obligations under FOI! Keep up the superb work.
Great analysis Joel. It really gives the lie to the narrative of hospitals being full of unvaxxed covid cases, like they're saying here in France.
BTW, I made a comment to your earlier analysis on December 20, which shows a much higher all cause mortality rate for the vaxxed group, compared to unvaxxed, whereas Mathew Crawford showed little difference between vaxxed and unvaxxed. I'd like your take on that.
I have an additional hypothesis based on non-covid mortality data in 18-39 released by ONS. It looks like a lot of people died compared to the unvaccinated. If you chart the 88% of the people who are in "good health", they died too. It cannot be therefore ruled out that something was happening to the jabbed cohort that wouldn't even let them make it to the hospital? Perhaps autoimmunity kills faster?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1721/fig4wrapper/datadownload.xlsx
thank you for this. I wonder how this all would sort out when deaths are counted? i've seen data that suggest that because there seems to be an increased chance of severe disease and death in the first 2 weeks after the first mRNA shot but these deaths are counted as "unvaxxed" , when these deaths in the first two weeks are added into all the deaths in the fully vaxxed, the effects cancel and there seems to bee little to no effect on death rates from the vax . BUT there have been so many other excess deaths from other reasons . So the overall gov response to the pandemic in the US in particular including the mass vax rollout has actually caused more deaths than would have occurred had there been focused protection and an emphasis on vaxxing only at risk and elderly people
Hi Joel, thank-you for this. One comment about the data: I'm an NHS person and look at data a lot, and I recognise this pattern of reducing admissions at the end of the time period.
The NHS tends to only "fully record" admissions when the patient is discharged. I'm wondering if you were given a standard data dump which didn't include those still in hospital.
They cannot glouce over the Gloucester data....
Did the Gloucestershire hospitals have a vaccination status updating policy for potential delays in NIMS being updated? Might not make a huge difference in some age categories but it might have a cumulative effect.
Bernal, Andrews et al. write in BMJ 2021; 373 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1088
"Lags in vaccination data could also lead to misclassification; however, we excluded the most recent two days from the analysis, and a review of NIMS data showed that it is more than 90% complete beyond two days after vaccination (see supplementary figure 7)."
You can see the supplementary figure on last page shows 85% correctly classified on January 15 and it took an additional 14 days to get the correct classification for 100% of the study participants. https://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/1048288/field_highwire_adjunct_files/0/lopj065133.ww.pdf
Another interesting quirk in the unlinked who were presumed to be unvaccinated.
"We found a higher proportion of people from non-white ethnic groups and those aged 85 years and older among those who we were unable to link to vaccination histories. "
The over 85 cohort disproportionately unlinked could have impact on the analysis since they are more likely to be hospitalized. But are they likely unvaccinated? Maybe. Maybe not.
Do you know why people were hospitalized?
Interesting that it seems that unvaccinated are hospitalized at a higher rate than vaccinated (for example, in the +70 age-group, >90% are vaccinated, but >20% of the hospitalized are unvaccinated). Do you have that data?
FYI, more info from Gloucestershire hospitals.. ML
31 August 2021
BY EMAIL TRANSMISSION
Mr Martin Large
Stroud
Gloucestershire
GL5 3RS Freedom of Information
Legal Services Department
Cheltenham General Hospital
Sandford Road
Cheltenham
GL53 7AN
Email: ghn-tr.foi@nhs.net
Dear Mr Large
Re: Request under Freedom of Information Act 2000 ID 6124
I am writing to you in response to your request for information which was received on 11 July 2021. In your request you sought the following information:
1. How many people have died in all your hospitals of Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust from covid 19 and only due to covid 19? I have seen the figures you publish online, but these are deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test, so they could have died from other causes. I just want to know the exact figures from 1st February 2020 to 3rd April 2021 for death due to covid 19 alone
Answer : The total number of patient deaths from Covid without underlying conditions over the time period quoted is 38.
2. The Number and Percentage of people with 'underlying health conditions' in the above overall total
Answer: The Total number of patient deaths from Covid with underlying conditions over the time period quoted is 549.
3. The Number and Percentage of those without 'underlying health conditions'
Answer: From the numbers provided above we can confirm that the percentage of patient deaths from Covid over the requested time period which related to patients without underlying conditions is 6.5%.
4. A copy of what treatment guidance and protocols are currently (1) given to patients reporting by phone to their GP that they feel ill with covid like symptoms and (2) to GPs?
Answer : The Trust does not hold this information. Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust may be able to help with this aspect of your request. Please find links overleaf.